Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization

Geoscientific Model Development - Tập 9 Số 5 - Trang 1937-1958
Veronika Eyring1, Sandrine Bony2, Gerald A. Meehl3, C. Senior4, Björn Stevens5, Ronald J. Stouffer6, Karl E. Taylor7
1IPA - DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre / DLR Institute of Atmospheric Physics (Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling - Germany)
2LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD ENS 24 Rue Lhomond 75231 Paris Cedex 05 - France)
3NCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (3090 Center Green Drive, Boulder, CO 80301 - United States)
4United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter] (FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, UK - United Kingdom)
5MPI-M - Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (Bundesstraße 53 20146 Hamburg - Germany)
6NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (1401 Constitution Avenue, NW Room 5128, Washington DC 20230 - United States)
7Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (United States)

Tóm tắt

Abstract. By coordinating the design and distribution of global climate model simulations of the past, current, and future climate, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has become one of the foundational elements of climate science. However, the need to address an ever-expanding range of scientific questions arising from more and more research communities has made it necessary to revise the organization of CMIP. After a long and wide community consultation, a new and more federated structure has been put in place. It consists of three major elements: (1) a handful of common experiments, the DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) and CMIP historical simulations (1850–near present) that will maintain continuity and help document basic characteristics of models across different phases of CMIP; (2) common standards, coordination, infrastructure, and documentation that will facilitate the distribution of model outputs and the characterization of the model ensemble; and (3) an ensemble of CMIP-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) that will be specific to a particular phase of CMIP (now CMIP6) and that will build on the DECK and CMIP historical simulations to address a large range of specific questions and fill the scientific gaps of the previous CMIP phases. The DECK and CMIP historical simulations, together with the use of CMIP data standards, will be the entry cards for models participating in CMIP. Participation in CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs by individual modelling groups will be at their own discretion and will depend on their scientific interests and priorities. With the Grand Science Challenges of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) as its scientific backdrop, CMIP6 will address three broad questions: – How does the Earth system respond to forcing? – What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? – How can we assess future climate changes given internal climate variability, predictability, and uncertainties in scenarios? This CMIP6 overview paper presents the background and rationale for the new structure of CMIP, provides a detailed description of the DECK and CMIP6 historical simulations, and includes a brief introduction to the 21 CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Bony, S., Bellon, G., Klocke, D., Sherwood, S., Fermepin, S., and Denvil, S.: Robust direct effect of carbon dioxide on tropical circulation and regional precipitation, Nat. Geosci., 6, 447–451, 2013.

Bony, S., Stevens, B., Frierson, D. M. W., Jakob, C., Kageyama, M., Pincus, R., Shepherd, T. G., Sherwood, S. C., Siebesma, A. P., Sobel, A. H., Watanabe, M., and Webb, M. J.: Clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity, Nat. Geosci., 8, 261–268, 2015.

Brasseur, G. and Carlson, D.: Future directions for the World Climate Research Programme, Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, 96, https://doi.org/10.1029/2015EO033577, 2015.

CMIP Panel: WCRP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), available at: http://www.wcrp-climate.org/index.php/wgcm-cmip/about-cmip, 2016.

Crowley, T. J.: Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years, Science, 289, 270–277, 2000.

Cubasch, U., Wuebbles, D., Chen, D., Facchini, M. C., Frame, D., Mahowald, N., and Winther, J.-G.: Introduction, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2013.

Deser, C., Knutti, R., Solomon, S., and Phillips, A. S.: Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 775–779, 2012.

Eyring, V., Righi, M., Lauer, A., Evaldsson, M., Wenzel, S., Jones, C., Anav, A., Andrews, O., Cionni, I., Davin, E. L., Deser, C., Ehbrecht, C., Friedlingstein, P., Gleckler, P., Gottschaldt, K.-D., Hagemann, S., Juckes, M., Kindermann, S., Krasting, J., Kunert, D., Levine, R., Loew, A., Mäkelä, J., Martin, G., Mason, E., Phillips, A. S., Read, S., Rio, C., Roehrig, R., Senftleben, D., Sterl, A., van Ulft, L. H., Walton, J., Wang, S., and Williams, K. D.: ESMValTool (v1.0) – a community diagnostic and performance metrics tool for routine evaluation of Earth system models in CMIP, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1747–1802, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1747-2016, 2016.

Ferraro, R., Waliser, D. E., Gleckler, P., Taylor, K. E., and Eyring, V.: Evolving obs4MIPs to Support the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00216.1, online first, 2015.

Flato, G., Marotzke, J., Abiodun, B., Braconnot, P., Chou, S. C., Collins, W., Cox, P., Driouech, F., Emori, S., Eyring, V., Forest, C., Gleckler, P., Guilyardi, E., Jakob, C., Kattsov, V., Reason, C., and Rummukainen, M.: Evaluation of Climate Models, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2013.

Gates, W. L., Boyle, J. S., Covey, C., Dease, C. G., Doutriaux, C. M., Drach, R. S., Fiorino, M., Gleckler, P. J., Hnilo, J. J., Marlais, S. M., Phillips, T. J., Potter, G. L., Santer, B. D., Sperber, K. R., Taylor, K. E., and Williams, D. N.: An Overview of the Results of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP I), B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 80, 29–55, 1999.

Geoffroy, O., Saint-Martin, D., Olivie, D. J. L., Voldoire, A., Bellon, G., and Tyteca, S.: Transient Climate Response in a Two-Layer Energy-Balance Model. Part I: Analytical Solution and Parameter Calibration Using CMIP5 AOGCM Experiments, J. Climate, 26, 1841–1857, 2013.

Gleckler, P. J., Doutriaux, C., Durack P. J., Taylor K. E., Zhang, Y., Williams, D. N., Mason, E., and Servonnat, J.: A More Powerful Reality Test for Climate Models, Eos Trans. AGU, https://doi.org/10.1029/2016EO051663, 2016.

Gregory, J. and Webb, M.: Tropospheric adjustment induces a cloud component in CO2 forcing, J. Climate, 21, 58–71, 2008.

Gregory, J. M.: Long-term effect of volcanic forcing on ocean heat content, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L22701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010gl045507, 2010.

Gregory, J. M., Ingram, W. J., Palmer, M. A., Jones, G. S., Stott, P. A., Thorpe, R. B., Lowe, J. A., Johns, T. C., and Williams, K. D.: A new method for diagnosing radiative forcing and climate sensitivity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L03205, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003gl018747, 2004.

Gregory, J. M., Bi, D., Collier, M. A., Dix, M. R., Hirst, A. C., Hu, A., Huber, M., Knutti, R., Marsland, S. J., Meinshausen, M., Rashid, H. A., Rotstayn, L. D., Schurer, A., and Church, J. A.: Climate models without preindustrial volcanic forcing underestimate historical ocean thermal expansion, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1600–1604, 2013.

Hegerl, G. C., Zwiers, F. W., Braconnot, P., Gillett, N. P., Luo, Y., Marengo Orsini, J. A., Nicholls, N., Penner, J. E., and Stott, P. A.: Understanding and Attributing Climate Change, in: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2007.

Houghton, R. A.: How well do we know the flux of CO2 from land-use change?, Tellus B, 62, 337–351, 2010.

Hurtt, G. C., Chini, L. P., Frolking, S., Betts, R. A., Feddema, J., Fischer, G., Fisk, J. P., Hibbard, K., Houghton, R. A., Janetos, A., Jones, C. D., Kindermann, G., Kinoshita, T., Goldewijk, K. K., Riahi, K., Shevliakova, E., Smith, S., Stehfest, E., Thomson, A., Thornton, P., van Vuuren, D. P., and Wang, Y. P.: Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands, Climatic Change, 109, 117–161, 2011.

IPCC: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2013.

Kamae, Y. and Watanabe, M.: Tropospheric adjustment to increasing CO2: its timescale and the role of land-sea contrast, Clim. Dynam., 41, 3007–3024, 2013.

Lawrence, B. N., Balaji, V., Bentley, P., Callaghan, S., DeLuca, C., Denvil, S., Devine, G., Elkington, M., Ford, R. W., Guilyardi, E., Lautenschlager, M., Morgan, M., Moine, M.-P., Murphy, S., Pascoe, C., Ramthun, H., Slavin, P., Steenman-Clark, L., Toussaint, F., Treshansky, A., and Valcke, S.: Describing Earth system simulations with the Metafor CIM, Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 1493–1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-1493-2012, 2012.

Li, C., Stevens, B., and Marotzke, J.: Eurasian winter cooling in the warming hiatus of 1998–2012, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 8131–8139, 2015.

Meehl, G. A., Boer, G. J., Covey, C., Latif, M., and Stouffer, R. J.: Intercomparison makes for a better climate model, Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, 78, 445–451, 1997.

Meehl, G. A., Boer, G. J., Covey, C., Latif, M., and Stouffer, R. J.: The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 81, 313–318, 2000.

Meehl, G. A., Covey, C., Taylor, K. E., Delworth, T., Stouffer, R. J., Latif, M., McAvaney, B., and Mitchell, J. F. B.: THE WCRP CMIP3 Multimodel Dataset: A New Era in Climate Change Research, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 88, 1383–1394, 2007.

Meehl, G. A., Moss, R., Taylor, K. E., Eyring, V., Stouffer, R. J., Bony, S., and Stevens, B.: Climate Model Intercomparisons: Preparing for the Next Phase, Eos Trans. AGU, 59, 77, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014EO090001, 2014.

Moss, R. H., Edmonds, J. A., Hibbard, K. A., Manning, M. R., Rose, S. K., van Vuuren, D. P., Carter, T. R., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., Meehl, G. A., Mitchell, J. F. B., Nakicenovic, N., Riahi, K., Smith, S. J., Stouffer, R. J., Thomson, A. M., Weyant, J. P., and Wilbanks, T. J.: The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment, Nature, 463, 747–756, 2010.

Murphy, J. M. and Mitchell, J. F. B.: Transient-Response of the Hadley-Center Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model to Increasing Carbon-Dioxide. 2. Spatial and Temporal Structure of Response, J. Climate, 8, 57–80, 1995.

Myhre, G., Shindell, D., Breìon, F.-M., Collins, W., Fuglestvedt, J., Huang, J., Koch, D., Lamarque, J.-F., Lee, D., Mendoza, B., Nakajima, T., Robock, A., Stephens, G., Takemura, T., and Zhang, H.: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2013.

O'Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Ebi, K. L., Kemp-Benedict, E., Riahi, K., Rothman, D. S., van Ruijven, B. J., van Vuuren, D. P., Birkmann, J., Kok, K., Levy, M., and Solecki, W.: The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century, Global Environ. Chang., https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004, online first, 2015.

Phillips, A. S., Deser, C., and Fasullo, J.: Evaluating Modes of Variability in Climate Models, Eos Trans. AGU, 95, 453–455, 2014.

Rauser, F., Gleckler, P., and Marotzke, J.: Rethinking the Default Construction of Multimodel Climate Ensembles, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, 911–919, 2014.

Sentman, L. T., Shevliakova, E., Stouffer, R. J., and Malyshev, S.: Time Scales of Terrestrial Carbon Response Related to Land-Use Application: Implications for Initializing an Earth System Model, Earth Interact., 15, 1–16, 2011.

Sherwood, S. C., Bony, S., Boucher, O., Bretherton, C., Forster, P. M., Gregory, J. M., and Stevens, B.: Adjustments in the Forcing-Feedback Framework for Understanding Climate Change, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, 217–228, 2015.

Stevens, B.: Rethinking the Lower Bound on Aerosol Radiative Forcing, J. Climate, 28, 4794–4819, 2015.

Stott, P. A., Mitchell, J. F. B., Allen, M. R., Delworth, T. L., Gregory, J. M., Meehl, G. A., and Santer, B. D.: Observational constraints on past attributable warming and predictions of future global warming, J. Climate, 19, 3055–3069, 2006.

Stouffer, R. J., Weaver, A. J., and Eby, M.: A method for obtaining pre-twentieth century initial conditions for use in climate change studies, Clim. Dynam., 23, 327–339, 2004.

Stouffer, R. J., Eyring, V., Meehl, G. A., Bony, S., Senior, C., Stevens, B., and Taylor, K. E.: CMIP5 Scientific Gaps and Recommendations for CMIP6, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., submitted, 2015.

Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: A Summary of the CMIP5 Experiment Design, available at: http://cmip.llnl.gov/cmip5/docs/Taylor_CMIP5_design.pdf (last access: 13 May 2016), 2009.

Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An Overview of Cmip5 and the Experiment Design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498, 2012.

Teixeira, J., Waliser, D., Ferraro, R., Gleckler, P., Lee, T., and Potter, G.: Satellite Observations for CMIP5: The Genesis of Obs4MIPs, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 95, 1329–1334, 2014.

Trenberth, K. and Asrar, G.: Challenges and Opportunities in Water Cycle Research: WCRP Contributions, Surv. Geophys., 35, 515–532, 2014.

van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G. C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J. F., Masui, T., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Smith, S. J., and Rose, S. K.: The representative concentration pathways: an overview, Climatic Change, 109, 5–31, 2011.

Williams, D. N., Balaji, V., Cinquini, L., Denvil, S., Duffy, D., Evans, B., Ferraro, R., Hansen, R., Lautenschlager, M., and Trenham, C.: A Global Repository for Planet-Sized Experiments and Observations, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-15-00132.1, online first, 2015.

Williams, K. and Webb, M.: A quantitative performance assessment of cloud regimes in climate models, Clim. Dynam., 33, 141–157, 2009.

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Geoscientific Model Development

Tập 9 Số 5

1937-1958

Thông tin tác giả