The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

Geoscientific Model Development - Tập 9 Số 9 - Trang 3461-3482
Brian C. O’Neill1, Claudia Tebaldi1, Detlef P. van Vuuren2,3, Veronika Eyring4, Pierre Friedlingstein5, G. C. Hurtt6, Reto Knutti7, Elmar Kriegler8, Jean‐François Lamarque1, Jason Lowe9, Gerald A. Meehl1, Richard H. Moss10, Keywan Riahi11,12, Benjamin M. Sanderson1
1National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO 80305, USA
2Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
3Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency – PBL, The Hague, The Netherlands
4Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
5University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
6University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
7Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
8Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
9Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
10Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Joint Global Change Research Institute at the University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
11Graz University of Technology, Graz, Austria
12International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria

Tóm tắt

Abstract. Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.

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Geoscientific Model Development

Tập 9 Số 9

3461-3482

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