Future land-use changes and its impacts on terrestrial ecosystem services: A review

Science of The Total Environment - Tập 781 - Trang 146716 - 2021
Eduardo Gomes1, Miguel Inácio1, Katažyna Bogdzevič1, Marius Kalinauskas1, Donalda Karnauskaitė1, Paulo Pereira1
1Environmental Management Laboratory, Mykolas Romeris University Vilnius, Lithuania

Tóm tắt

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Araújo Costa, 2019, Land capability of multiple-landform watersheds with environmental land use conflicts, Land Use Policy, 81, 689, 10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.11.041

Aziz, 2019, Comparative valuation of potential and realised ecosystem services in Southern Ontario, Canada, Environ. Sci. Policy, 100, 105, 10.1016/j.envsci.2019.06.014

Barbosa, 2020

Boavida-Portugal, 2016, Exploring the impacts of future tourism development on land use/cover changes, Appl. Geogr., 77, 82, 10.1016/j.apgeog.2016.10.009

Bryan, 2016, Land-use and sustainability under intersecting global change and domestic policy scenarios: trajectories for Australia to 2050, Glob. Environ. Chang., 38, 130, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.03.002

Bürgi, 2017, Processes and driving forces in changing cultural landscapes across Europe, Landsc. Ecol., 32, 2097, 10.1007/s10980-017-0513-z

Byrd, 2015, Integrated climate and land use change scenarios for California rangeland ecosystem services: wildlife habitat, soil carbon, and water supply, Landsc. Ecol., 30, 729, 10.1007/s10980-015-0159-7

Carpenter, 2009, Science for managing ecosystem services: beyond the millennium ecosystem assessment, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 106, 10.1073/pnas.0808772106

CBD, 2010

Chaudhary, 2015, The evolution of ecosystem services: a time series and discourse-centered analysis, Environ. Sci. Pol., 54, 25, 10.1016/j.envsci.2015.04.025

Chen, 2020, Modeling ESV losses caused by urban expansion using cellular automata and geographically weighted regression, Sci. Total Environ., 712, 136509, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136509

Costanza, 1997, The value of the world’s ecosystem services and natural capital, Nature, 387, 253, 10.1038/387253a0

Crooks, 2010, Constructing and implementing an agent-based model of residential segregation through vector GIS, Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci., 24, 661, 10.1080/13658810903569572

Daily, 1997

Dakins, 1999, The value of the value of information, Hum. Ecol. Risk Assess. An Int. J., 5, 281, 10.1080/10807039991289437

Eigenbrod, 2011, The impact of projected increases in urbanisation on ecosystem services, Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci., 278, 3201, 10.1098/rspb.2010.2754

Enright, 2020, 333

Fantom, 2016

FAO, 2020

Ghani, 2015, 255

Gomes, 2020, Sustainable population growth in low-density areas in a new technological era: prospective thinking on how to support planning policies using complex spatial models, Land, 9, 10.3390/land9070221

Gomes, 2019, Farming under urban pressure: Farmers’ land use and land cover change intentions, Appl. Geogr., 102, 58, 10.1016/j.apgeog.2018.12.009

Gomes, 2019, Modelling future land use scenarios based on farmers’ intentions and a cellular automata approach, Land use policy, 85

Gomes, 2020, Future land use changes in a peri-urban context: local stakeholder views, Sci. Total Environ., 137381

Gonzalez-Redin, 2019, Exploring sustainable land use in forested tropical social-ecological systems: a case-study in the wet tropics, J. Environ. Manag., 231, 940, 10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.10.079

Grêt-Regamey, 2017, Integrating ecosystem services into spatial planning—a spatial decision support tool, Landsc. Urban Plan., 165, 206, 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2016.05.003

Haines-Young, 2013

Hill, 2005, Multi-criteria decision analysis in spatial decision support: the ASSESS analytic hierarchy process and the role of quantitative methods and spatially explicit analysis, Environ. Model. Softw., 20, 955, 10.1016/j.envsoft.2004.04.014

Hoque, 2020, Future impact of land use/land cover changes on ecosystem services in the Lower Meghna River Estuary, Bangladesh. Sustain.

Huang, 2019, Impacts of urban expansion on wetland ecosystem services in the context of hosting the Winter Olympics: a scenario simulation in the Guanting Reservoir Basin, China, Reg. Environ. Chang., 19, 2365, 10.1007/s10113-019-01552-1

Inácio, 2019, Assessing changes in ecosystem services provision in coastal waters, Sustain., 11, 1

IPBES, 2019

Kaim, 2018, A review of multi-criteria optimisation techniques for agricultural land use allocation, Environ. Model. Softw., 105, 79, 10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.03.031

Kain, 2016, Exploring local consequences of two land-use alternatives for the supply of urban ecosystem services in Stockholm year 2050, Ecol. Indic., 70, 615, 10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.02.062

Kim, 2019, Land use change and ecosystem services in mountainous watersheds: predicting the consequences of environmental policies with cellular automata and hydrological modeling, Environ. Model. Softw., 122, 103982, 10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.06.018

Kindu, 2018, Scenario modelling of land use/land cover changes in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands, Sci. Total Environ., 622–623, 534, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.338

Krkoška Lorencová, 2016, Assessing impact of land use and climate change on regulating ecosystem services in the Czech Republic, Ecosyst. Heal. Sustain., 2

Landuyt, 2016, The importance of uncertainties in scenario analyses – a study on future ecosystem service delivery in Flanders, Sci. Total Environ., 553, 504, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.02.098

Larsen, 2015, Urban climate and adaptation strategies, Front. Ecol. Environ., 13, 486, 10.1890/150103

Lennon, 2014, Delivering ecosystems services via spatial planning: reviewing the possibilities and implications of a green infrastructure approach, Town Plan. Rev., 85, 563, 10.3828/tpr.2014.35

Li, 2019, Impact of land use/cover change on Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration ecosystem services value: temporal-spatial patterns and cold/hot spots ecosystem services value change brought by urbanization, Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 16, 123, 10.3390/ijerph16010123

Liu, 2015, Systems integration for global sustainability, Science (80-. ), 347, 10.1126/science.1258832

Liu, 2017, Changes in land-uses and ecosystem services under multi-scenarios simulation, Sci. Total Environ., 586, 522, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.02.005

Liu, 2017, Effects of climate and land use changes on water resources in the Taoer River, Adv. Meteorol., 2017, 1031854, 10.1155/2017/1031854

Liu, 2018, Future impacts of climate change and land use on multiple ecosystem Services in a Rapidly Urbanising Agricultural Basin, China. Sustain.

Liu, 2020, Annual dynamics of global land cover and its long-term changes from 1982 to 2015, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1217, 10.5194/essd-12-1217-2020

Liu, 2020, Past and future ecosystem service trade-offs in Poyang Lake Basin under different land use policy scenarios, Arab. J. Geosci., 13, 46, 10.1007/s12517-019-5004-x

Lyu, 2019, The impact of urbanisation and climate change on ecosystem services: a case study of the city belt along the Yellow River in Ningxia, China, Comput. Environ. Urban Syst., 77, 101351, 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2019.101351

Martínez-Sastre, 2017, Mediterranean landscapes under change: combining social multicriteria evaluation and the ecosystem services framework for land use planning, Land Use Policy, 67, 472, 10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.06.001

MEA, 2005

Monprapussorn, 2018, Impact of climate and land use change on ecosystem services: a case study of Samutsakorn province, Thailand, Ecol. Inform., 47, 45, 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2017.08.007

Montibeller, 2006, Combining scenario planning and multi-criteria decision analysis in practice, J. Multi-Criteria Decis. Anal., 14, 5, 10.1002/mcda.403

Mouchet, 2017, Ecosystem service supply by European landscapes under alternative land-use and environmental policies, Int. J. Biodivers. Sci. Ecosyst. Serv. Manag., 13, 342, 10.1080/21513732.2017.1381167

Münch, 2019, Monitoring effects of land cover change on biophysical drivers in rangelands using albedo, L.

Newbold, 2015, Global effects of land use on local terrestrial biodiversity, Nature, 520, 45, 10.1038/nature14324

Niquisse, 2017, Ecosystem services and biodiversity trends in Mozambique as a consequence of land cover change, Int. J. Biodivers. Sci. Ecosyst. Serv. Manag., 13, 297, 10.1080/21513732.2017.1349836

Oliveira, 2017, Biodiversity conservation gaps in the Brazilian protected areas, Sci. Rep., 7, 9141, 10.1038/s41598-017-08707-2

Opdam, 2015, Framing ecosystem services: affecting behaviour of actors in collaborative landscape planning?, Land Use Policy, 46, 223, 10.1016/j.landusepol.2015.02.008

Opgenoorth, 2013, The intergovernmental science-policy platform on biodiversity and ecosystem services (IPBES), up and walking, Front. Biogeogr., 5, 10.21425/F55420746

Paudyal, 2015, Participatory assessment and mapping of ecosystem services in a data-poor region: case study of community-managed forests in Central Nepal, Ecosyst. Serv., 13, 81, 10.1016/j.ecoser.2015.01.007

Pereira, 2020, Ecosystem services in a changing environment, Sci. Total Environ., 702, 135008, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135008

Pickard, 2019, Validating land change models based on configuration disagreement, Comput. Environ. Urban. Syst., 77, 101366, 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2019.101366

Popp, 2017, Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways, Glob. Environ. Chang., 42, 331, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.002

Qin, 2019, Integrating ecosystem services flows into water security simulations in water scarce areas: present and future, Sci. Total Environ., 670, 1037, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.263

Reed, 2013, Participatory scenario development for environmental management: a methodological framework illustrated with experience from the UK uplands, J. Environ. Manag., 128, 345, 10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.05.016

Resende, 2019, Consequences of delaying actions for safeguarding ecosystem services in the Brazilian Cerrado, Biol. Conserv., 234, 90, 10.1016/j.biocon.2019.03.009

Rocha, 2017, Introductory chapter

Rodríguez-Echeverry, 2018, Impact of land-use change on biodiversity and ecosystem services in the Chilean temperate forests, Landsc. Ecol., 33, 439, 10.1007/s10980-018-0612-5

Romano, 2015, Multi-criteria decision analysis for land suitability mapping in a rural area of southern Italy, Land Use Policy, 48, 131, 10.1016/j.landusepol.2015.05.013

Rosenthal, 2015, Process matters: a framework for conducting decision-relevant assessments of ecosystem services, Int. J. Biodivers. Sci. Ecosyst. Serv. Manag., 11, 190, 10.1080/21513732.2014.966149

Rowe, 1999, The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis, Int. J. Forecast., 15, 353, 10.1016/S0169-2070(99)00018-7

Saint-Laurent, 2020

Sample, 1984, Nominal group technique: an alternative to brainstorming, J. Ext., 22

Sauter, 2019, Changes in demand and supply of ecosystem services under scenarios of future land use in Vorarlberg, Austria, J. Mt. Sci., 16, 2793, 10.1007/s11629-018-5124-x

Shaffer, 2019, Modeling effects of crop production, energy development and conservation-grassland loss on avian habitat, PLoS One, 14, 10.1371/journal.pone.0198382

Sharma, 2018, Modeling land use and land cover changes and their effects on biodiversity in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, L.

Song, 2018, Global land change from 1982 to 2016, Nature, 560, 639, 10.1038/s41586-018-0411-9

Swetnam, 2011, Mapping socio-economic scenarios of land cover change: a GIS method to enable ecosystem service modelling, J. Environ. Manag., 92, 563, 10.1016/j.jenvman.2010.09.007

Tasser, 2017, Climate change versus land-use change—what affects the mountain landscapes more?, Land Use Policy, 60, 60, 10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.10.019

Te Brömmelstroet, 2010, From planning support systems to mediated planning support: a structured dialogue to overcome the implementation gap, Environ. Plan. B Plan. Des., 37, 3, 10.1068/b35019

Terra, 2014, Land use changes in protected areas and their future: the legal effectiveness of landscape protection, Land Use Policy, 38, 378, 10.1016/j.landusepol.2013.12.003

Tobler, 1979, Lattice tuning, Geogr. Anal., 11, 36, 10.1111/j.1538-4632.1979.tb00671.x

UN, 2015

UN, 2021

United Nations, 2015

United Nations, 2019

Valbuena, 2010, Effects of farmers’ decisions on the landscape structure of a Dutch rural region: an agent-based approach, Landsc. Urban Plan., 97, 98, 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2010.05.001

van Vliet, 2011, Revisiting kappa to account for change in the accuracy assessment of land-use change models, Ecol. Model., 222, 1367, 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.01.017

Veerkamp, 2020, Future projections of biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe with two integrated assessment models, Reg. Environ. Chang., 20, 103, 10.1007/s10113-020-01685-8

Verburg, 2002, Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: the CLUE-S model, Environ. Manag., 30, 391, 10.1007/s00267-002-2630-x

Verburg, 2019, Beyond land cover change: towards a new generation of land use models, Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain., 38, 77, 10.1016/j.cosust.2019.05.002

Viana, 2019, Long-term satellite image time-series for land use/land cover change detection using refined open source data in a rural region, Remote Sens., 11, 1104, 10.3390/rs11091104

Von Neumann, 1969, Theory of self-reproducing automata, Inf. Storage Retr.

Wang, 2019, Soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model: a systemic review, J. Coast. Res., 93, 22, 10.2112/SI93-004.1

Williams, 2012, Understanding the relationship between social change and its impacts: the experience of rural land use change in South-Eastern Australia, J. Rural. Stud., 28, 538, 10.1016/j.jrurstud.2012.05.002

Woldeyohannes, 2020, Assessing changes in ecosystem service values over 1985–2050 in response to land use and land cover dynamics in Abaya-Chamo Basin, Southern Ethiopia. L.

Wu, 2019, Impact of land use change on multiple ecosystem services in the rapidly urbanising Kunshan City of China: past trajectories and future projections, Land Use Policy, 85, 419, 10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.04.022

Xia, 2018, Modeling the spatio-temporal changes in land uses and its impacts on ecosystem services in Northeast China over 2000–2050, J. Geogr. Sci., 28, 1611, 10.1007/s11442-018-1532-7

Xie, 2003, Ecological assets valuation of the Tibetan Plateau, J. Nat. Resour., 18, 189

Xie, 2008, Supply, consumption and valuation of ecosystem services in China, Resour. Sci., 30, 93

Yang, 2012, A spatiotemporal model of land use change based on ant colony optimisation, Markov chain and cellular automata, Ecol. Model., 233, 11, 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.03.011

Yang, 2019, Estimation of water provision service for monsoon catchments of South China: applicability of the InVEST model, Landsc. Urban Plan., 182, 133, 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2018.10.011

Zhang, 2017, Forest Fragmentation and driving forces in Yingkou, Northeastern China, Sustainability, 9, 1

Zhang, 2020, Land use/cover predictions incorporating ecological security for the Yangtze River Delta region, China, Ecol. Indic., 119, 106841, 10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106841