Export entry and exit by German firms
Review of World Economics - 2001
Tóm tắt
Export Entry and Exit by German Firms. — While exports have played an important role in German business cycles, little is known about the export supply response of German firms. This paper presents a dynamic model of the export decision by a profit-maximizing firm. Using a panel of German manufacturing plants, we test for the role of plant characteristics and sunk costs in the entry decision. We find evidence for substantial sunk costs: exporting today by a plant increases the probability by 50 percent that the plant will export tomorrow. This advantage depreciates quickly, falling by two-thirds in a year. The authors also find evidence that plant success, as measured by size and productivity, increases the likelihood of exporting.
Từ khóa
Tài liệu tham khảo
Baldwin, R. (1988). Hysteresis in Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect.American Economic Review 78 (4): 773–785.
Baldwin, R., and P. Krugman (1989). Persistent Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks.Quarterly Journal of Economics 104 (4): 635–654.
Bernard, A. B., and J. B. Jensen (1997). Why Some Firms Export: Experience, Entry Costs, Spillovers, and Subsidies. Dartmouth, mimeo.
— (1999). Exceptional Exporter Performance: Cause, Effect, or Both?Journal of International Economics 47 (1): 1–25.
Bernard, A. B., and J. Wagner (1997). Exports and Success in German Manufacturing.Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 133 (1): 134–157.
Clerides, S., S. Lach, and J. Tybout (1997). Is “Learning-by-Exporting” Important? Micro-Dynamic Evidence from Colombia, Mexico, and Morocco.Quarterly Journal of Economics 113 (3): 903–947.
Dixit, A. (1989a). Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty.Journal of Political Economy 97 (3): 620–638.
— (1989b). Hysteresis, Import Penetration, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through.Quarterly Journal of Economics 104 (2): 205–228.
Heckman, J. (1981). The Incidental Parameters Problem and the Problem of Initial Conditions in Estimating a Discrete Time-Discrete Data Stochastic Process. In C. Manski and D. McFadden (eds.),The Structural Analysis of Discrete Data with Econometric Applications. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.
Holtz-Eakin, D., W. Newey, and H. Rosen (1988). Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data.Econometrica 56 (6): 1371–1395.
Keane, M., and D. Runkle (1992). On the Estimation of Panel Data Models with Serial Correlation When Instruments Are Not Strictly Exogenous.Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 10 (1): 1–9.
Krugman, P. (1989).Exchange Rate Instability. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.
— (1992).Geography and Trade. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.
Methner, E. (1992). Das Erhebungsprogramm der amtlichen Statistik im Bereich des Produzierenden Gewerbes. In R. Ertel and J. Wagner (eds.),Produzieren in Niedersachsen. Empirische Untersuchungen mit Betriebsdaten. NIW-Vortragsreihe 6. Hannover: NIW.
Roberts, M., and J. Tybout (1997). The Decision to Export in Colombia: An Empirical Model of Entry with Sunk Costs.American Economic Review 87 (4): 545–564.