Projected future temperature and precipitation extremes in Chicago

Journal of Great Lakes Research - Tập 36 - Trang 22-32 - 2010
Steve Vavrus1, Jeff Van Dorn2
1Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin, 1225 W. Dayton Street, Madison, WI 53706, USA
2ATMOS Research and Consulting, P.O. Box 16578, Lubbock, TX 79490, USA

Tóm tắt

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Adams, 1999, The economic consequences of ENSO events for agriculture, Clim. Res., 13, 165, 10.3354/cr013165

Alexander, 2006, Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation, J. Geophys. Res.–Atmos., 111, DO5109, 10.1029/2005JD006290

Assel, 1996, Comparison of 1994 Great Lakes winter weather and ice conditions with previous years, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 71, 10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0071:WWAICF>2.0.CO;2

Braham, 1984, Quantitative estimates of the effect of Lake Michigan on snowfall, J. Clim. Appl. Meteor., 23, 940, 10.1175/1520-0450(1984)023<0940:QEOTEO>2.0.CO;2

Cassano, 2006, Changes in synoptic weather patterns in the polar regions in the 20th and 21st centuries: Part 1. Arctic, Int. J. Climatol., 26, 1027, 10.1002/joc.1306

Cherkauer, 2010, Hydrologic impacts of projected future climate change in the Lake Michigan region, J. Great Lakes Res., 36, 33, 10.1016/j.jglr.2009.11.012

Currerio, 2001, Analysis of the association between extreme precipitation and waterborne disease outbreaks in the United States, 1948–1994, Am. J. Public Health, 91, 1194, 10.2105/AJPH.91.8.1194

Curriero, 2002, Temperature and mortality in 11 cities of the eastern United States, Am. J. Epidemiol., 155, 80, 10.1093/aje/155.1.80

Dai, 2006, Precipitation characteristics in eighteen coupled climate models, J. Climate, 19, 4605, 10.1175/JCLI3884.1

Day, 1926, Precipitation in the drainage area of the Great Lakes, 1875–1924, Mon. Weather Rev., 54, 85, 10.1175/1520-0493(1926)54<85:PITDAO>2.0.CO;2

Delworth, 1999, Changes in heat index associated with CO2-induced global warming, Clim. Change, 43, 369, 10.1023/A:1005463917086

Delworth, 2006, GFDL's CM2 global coupled climate models: Part I. Formulation and simulation characteristics, J. Climate, 19, 643, 10.1175/JCLI3629.1

Dematte, 1998, Near-fatal heat stroke during the 1995 heat wave in Chicago, Ann. Intern. Med., 129, 173, 10.7326/0003-4819-129-3-199808010-00001

Dettinger, 2004, Simulated hydrologic responses to climatic change variations and change in the Merced, Carson, and American River Basin, California 1900–2099., Clim. Change, 62, 283, 10.1023/B:CLIM.0000013683.13346.4f

Dewey, 1977, Daily maximum and minimum temperature forecasts and the influence of snow cover, Mon. Weather Rev., 105, 1594, 10.1175/1520-0493(1977)105<1594:DMAMTF>2.0.CO;2

Dixon, 2005, Heat mortality versus cold mortality: a study of conflicting databases in the United States, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 86, 937, 10.1175/BAMS-86-7-937

Greenough, 2001, The potential impacts of climate variability and change on health impacts of extreme weather events in the United States, Enviro. Health Perspect., 109, 191, 10.2307/3435009

Hegerl, 2004, Detectability of anthropogenic changes in annual temperature and precipitation extremes, J. Climate, 17, 3683, 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<3683:DOACIA>2.0.CO;2

Hayhoe, 2010, Regional climate change projections for Chicago and the US Great Lakes, J. Great Lake Res., 36, 7, 10.1016/j.jglr.2010.03.012

Hellmann, 2008, Climate change and Chicago: projections and potential impacts (ecosystems), 23

Hellman, 2010, Climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems in metropolitan Chicago and its surrounding, multi-state region, J. Great Lakes Res., 36, 74, 10.1016/j.jglr.2009.12.001

Kalkstein, 1989, Weather and human mortality: an evaluation of demographic and interregional response in the United States, Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr., 79, 44, 10.1111/j.1467-8306.1989.tb00249.x

Karl, T.R., Meehl, G.A., Miller, C.D., Hassol, S.J., Waple, A.M., Murray, W.L., 2008. Weather and climate extremes in a changing climate; regions of focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U. S. Pacific Islands. Synthesis and assessment Product 3.3. Report by the U. S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. 180 pp.

Kovats, 2008, Heat stress and public health: a critical review, Annu. Rev. Public Health, 29, 41, 10.1146/annurev.publhealth.29.020907.090843

Kristovich, 2009, Climate sensitivity of Great Lakes-generated weather systems, 236

Kunkel, 1996, The July 1995 heat wave in the Midwest: a climatic perspective and critical weather factors, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 1507, 10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<1507:TJHWIT>2.0.CO;2

Kunkel, 2003, Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895–2000, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30

Kunkel, 2006, Can CGCMs simulate the twentieth century “warming hole” in the central United States?, J. Climate, 19, 4137, 10.1175/JCLI3848.1

Lyons, W.A., 1966. Some effects of Lake Michigan upon squall lines and summertime convection. Chicago, Illinois: Univ. Chicago Satellite Mesometeor. Res. Paper 57.

Madsen, T., 2007. When it rains, it pours: global warming and the rising frequency of extreme precipitation in the United States. Environment America Research and Policy Center. 48 pp.

McLellan, 2007, Distribution and fate of Escherichia coli in Lake Michigan following contamination with urban stormwater and combined sewer overflows, J. Great Lakes Res., 33, 566, 10.3394/0380-1330(2007)33[566:DAFOEC]2.0.CO;2

Meehl, 2004, Combinations of natural and anthropogenic forcings and 20th century climate, J. Climate, 17, 3721, 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<3721:CONAAF>2.0.CO;2

Meehl, 2005, Understanding future patterns of precipitation extremes in climate model simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L18719, 10.1029/2005GL023680

Meehl, 2007, Global climate projections, 747

Mesinger, 2006, North American Regional Reanalysis, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 87, 343, 10.1175/BAMS-87-3-343

Miller, 2008, Climate, extreme heat, and electricity demand in California, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 47, 1834, 10.1175/2007JAMC1480.1

Nakicenovic, 2000, 612

NCDC, 2008. Billion dollar U.S. weather disasters, 1980–2007. http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/reports/billionz.html.

Pan, 2009, Global climate change impact on the Midwestern USA—a summer cooling trend, 29

Peterson, 2008, Changes in North American extremes derived from daily weather data, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D07113, 10.1029/2007JD009453

Pielke, 2008, Dangerous assumptions, Nature, 452, 531, 10.1038/452531a

Pope, 2000, The impact of new physical parameterizations in the Hadley Centre climate model: HadAM3, Clim. Dyn., 16, 123, 10.1007/s003820050009

Rogers, 1991, Florida citrus freezes and polar anticyclones in the Great Plains, J. Climate, 4, 1103, 10.1175/1520-0442(1991)004<1103:FCFAPA>2.0.CO;2

Scott, 1996, Impacts of the Great Lakes on regional climate conditions, J. Great Lakes Res., 22, 845, 10.1016/S0380-1330(96)71006-7

Semenza, 1996, Heat-related deaths during the July 1995 heat wave in Chicago, N. Engl. J. Med., 335, 84, 10.1056/NEJM199607113350203

Sousounis, 2002, Potential future weather patterns over the Great Lakes region, J. Great Lakes Res., 28, 496, 10.1016/S0380-1330(02)70602-3

Steadman, 1984, A universal scale of apparent temperature, J. Clim. Appl. Meteorol., 23, 1674, 10.1175/1520-0450(1984)023<1674:AUSOAT>2.0.CO;2

Strommen, 1978, Seasonally changing patterns of lake-effect snowfall in western Lake Michigan, Mon. Weather Rev., 106, 503, 10.1175/1520-0493(1978)106<0503:SCPOLE>2.0.CO;2

Sun, 2007, How often will it rain?, J. Climate, 20, 4801, 10.1175/JCLI4263.1

Tebaldi, 2006, Going to the extremes: an intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events, Clim. Change, 79, 185, 10.1007/s10584-006-9051-4

Trenberth, 1999, Conceptual framework for changes of extremes of the hydrological cycle with climate change, Clim. Change, 42, 327, 10.1023/A:1005488920935

Valleron, 2004, Epidemiology and heat waves: analysis of the 2003 episode in France, C. R. Biol., 327, 1125, 10.1016/j.crvi.2004.09.009

Valor, 2001, Daily air temperature and electricity load in Spain, J. Appl. Meteorol., 40, 1413, 10.1175/1520-0450(2001)040<1413:DATAEL>2.0.CO;2

Vavrus, 2006, The behavior of extreme cold-air outbreaks under greenhouse warming, Int. J. Climatol., 26, 1133, 10.1002/joc.1301

Wehner, 2005, Changes in daily precipitation and surface air temperature extremes in the IPCC AR4 models, US CLIVAR Variations, 3, 5

Wentz, 2007, How much more rain will global warming bring?, Science, 317, 233, 10.1126/science.1140746

Wuebbles, 2004, Climate change projections for the United States Midwest, Mitig. Adapt. Strategies Glob. Chang., 9, 335, 10.1023/B:MITI.0000038843.73424.de