The potential negative impacts of global climate change on tropical montane cloud forests

Alford, 1999, Global amphibian declines: a problem in applied ecology, Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst., 30, 133, 10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.30.1.133 Barry, 1994, Past and potential future changes in mountain environments, 3 Bazzaz, 1998, Tropical forest in a future climate: changes in biological diversity and impoact on the global carbon cycle, Clim. Change, 39, 317, 10.1023/A:1005359605003 Becker, 1999, Protecting a Garúa Forest in Ecuador: the role of institutions and ecosystem valuation, Ambio, 28, 156 Bensiton, 1996, Impacts of climate change on Mountain Regions, 191 Bensiton, 1997, Climatic change at high elevation sites: an overview, Clim. Change, 36, 233, 10.1023/A:1005380714349 Benzing, 1998, Vulnerabilities of tropical forests to climate change: the significance of resident epiphytes, Clim. Change, 39, 519, 10.1023/A:1005312307709 Bonnell, 1998, Possible impacts of climate variability and change on tropical forest hydrology, Clim. Change, 39, 215, 10.1023/A:1005343820004 Box, 1995, Factors determining distributions of tree species and plant function types, Vegetatio, 121, 101, 10.1007/BF00044676 Brown, 1995, Ecology and conservation of the Argentine montane forest, 107 Bruijinzeel, 1990 Bruijnzeel, 1999 Bruijnzeel, L.A., Hamilton, L.S., 2000. Decision time for cloud forests. UNESCO International Hydrological Programme: Humid Tropics Programme Series No. 13. Bruijnzeel, 1995, Hydrology and biogeochemistry of tropical montane cloud forests: what do we really know?, 38 Bruijnzeel, 1998, Climatic conditions and tropical montane forest productivity: the fog has not lifted yet, Ecology, 79, 3, 10.1890/0012-9658(1998)079[0003:CCATMF]2.0.CO;2 Bruijnzeel, 1993, Hydrological observations in montane rain forests on Gunung Silam, Sabah, Malaysia, with special reference to the Massenerhebung effect, J. Ecol., 81, 145, 10.2307/2261231 Bryson, 1981, Holocene variations of monsoon rainfall in Rajasthan, Quat. Res., 16, 135, 10.1016/0033-5894(81)90041-7 Byer, 1977, Early secondary succession in an elfin woodland in the Luquillo mountains of Puerto Rico, Biotropica, 9, 35, 10.2307/2387857 Caldwell, 1980, A steep latitude gradient of UV-B radiation in the arctic-alpine life zone, Ecology, 61, 600, 10.2307/1937426 Cavelier, 1989, Mist and fog interception in elfin cloud forests in Columbia and Venezula, J. Trop. Ecol., 5, 309, 10.1017/S0266467400003709 Chu, 1989, Hawaiian drought and the southern oscillation, Int. J. Clim., 9, 619, 10.1002/joc.3370090606 Colinvaux, 1996, A long pollen record from lowland Amazonia: forest and cooling in glacial times, Science, 274, 85, 10.1126/science.274.5284.85 Colinvaux, 1996, Temperature depression in the lowland tropics in glacial times, Clim. Change, 32, 19, 10.1007/BF00141276 Colinvaux, 1997, Glacial and postglacial pollen records from the Ecuadorian Andes and Amazon, Quat. Res., 48, 69, 10.1006/qres.1997.1908 Colinvaux, 2000, Amazonian and neotropical plant communities on glacial time-scales: the failure of the aridity and refuge hypotheses, Quat. Sci. Rev., 19, 141, 10.1016/S0277-3791(99)00059-1 Diaz, 1996, Recent changes in tropical freezing heights and the role of sea surface temperature, Nature, 383, 152, 10.1038/383152a0 Dillon, 1997, Lomas formations—Peru, 519 Donnelly, 1998, Potential effects of climate change on two neotropical amphibian assemblages, Clim. Change, 39, 541, 10.1023/A:1005315821841 Doumenge, 1995, TMCFs: conservation status and management issues, 24 Emanuel, 1987, The dependence of hurricane intensity on climate, Nature, 326, 483, 10.1038/326483a0 Fang, 1990, Climate and vegetation on China: III. Water balance and distribution of vegetation, Ecol. Res., 5, 9, 10.1007/BF02348460 Fang, 1990, Climate and vegetation on China: IV. Distribution of tree species along the thermal gradient, Ecol. Res., 5, 291, 10.1007/BF02347005 Fang, 1991, Climate and vegetation on China: V. Effect of climatic factors on the upper limit of distribution of evergreen broadleaf forest, Ecol. Res., 6, 113, 10.1007/BF02353874 Flenley, 1979 Flenley, 1992, Palynological evidence relating to disturbance and other ecological phenomena of rain forests, 17 Flenley, 1992, Two problems of the late Quaternary in the Sunda–Sahul region and a possible solution Flenley, 1992, Ultraviolet-B insolation and the altitudinal forest limit, 273 Flenley, 1995, Cloud forest, the Massenerhebung effect, and ultraviolet insolation, 150 Flenley, 1997, The Quaternary in the tropics: an introduction, Journal of Quaternary Science, 12, 345, 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1417(199709/10)12:5<345::AID-JQS318>3.0.CO;2-8 Flenley, 1998, Tropical forests under the climates of the last 30,000 years, Clim. Change, 39, 177, 10.1023/A:1005367822750 Flohn, 1989, Changes of tropical sea–air interaction processes over a 30-year period, Nature, 338, 244, 10.1038/338244a0 Follman, 1963, Nordchilenische Nebeloasen, UMSCHAU, Heft, 4, 101 Foster, 2001, Regional scale modeling of recent changes in the hydrological cycle at the monteverde cloud forest, Mon. Weather Rev. Fowler, 1995, Potential impacts of global warming on the frequency and magnitude of heavy precipitation, Nat. Hazards, 11, 283, 10.1007/BF00613411 Gaffen, 1991, Space and time scales of global tropospheric moisture, J. Clim., 4, 989, 10.1175/1520-0442(1991)004<0989:SATSOG>2.0.CO;2 Gaffen, 2000, Multidecadal changes in the vertical temperature structure of the tropical troposphere, Nature, 287, 1242 Garcia-Martino, 1996, Runoff and elevation relationships in the Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico, Caribb. J. Sci., 32, 413 Gentry, 1986, Endemism in tropical versus temperate plant communities, 1532 Gentry, 1992, Tropical forest biodiversity: distributional patterns and their conservational significance, Oikos, 63, 19, 10.2307/3545512 Goldammer, 1998, Potential impacts of climate change on fire regimes in the tropics based on magicc and a GISS GCM-derived lightning model, Clim. Change, 39, 273, 10.1023/A:1005371923658 Grabherr, 1978, Nettoprimärproducktion und Reproducktion in einem krummseggenrasen, (Caricetum curvulae) der Ötztaler Alpen Tirol, Oecol. Plant, 13, 227 Graham, 1995, Simulation of recent global temperature trends, Science, 267, 666, 10.1126/science.267.5198.666 Graumlich, 1994, Long-term vegetation change in mountain environments, 167 Grubb, 1977, Control of forest growth and distribution on wet tropical moutains: with special reference to mineral nutrition, Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst., 8, 83, 10.1146/annurev.es.08.110177.000503 Grubb, 1966, A comparison on montane and lowland rain forest in Ecuador: II. The climate and its effects on the distribution and physiognomy of the forests, J. Ecol., 54, 303, 10.2307/2257951 Grubb, 1963, A comparison on montane and lowland rain forest in Ecuador: I. The forest structure, physiognomy and floristics, J. Ecol., 51, 567, 10.2307/2257748 Guilderson, 1998, Abrupt shift in subsurface temperatures in the tropical Pacific associated with changes in El Niño, Science, 281, 240, 10.1126/science.281.5374.240 Gutzler, 1992, Climatic variability of temperature and humidity over the tropical western Pacific, Geophys. Res. Lett., 19, 1595, 10.1029/92GL01579 Hafkenscheid, R.L.L.J., 2000. Hydrology and biogeochemistry of tropical montane rain forests of contrasting stature in the Blue Mountains, Jamaica, PhD Thesis, Vrije Universiteit, Print Partners Ipskamp, Enschede, The Netherlands. Hafkenscheid, 1998, Estimates of fog interception by montane rain forest in the Blue Mountains of Jamaica Halpin, 1994, Latitudinal variation in montane ecosystem response to potential climatic change, 180 Hamilton, 1995 Hamilton, 1995, The Puerto Rico tropical cloud forest symosium: introduction and workshop synthesis, 1 Hastenrath, 1991 Hastenrath, 1992, The dramatic retreat of Mount Kenya's glaciers 1963–87: greenhouse forcing, Ann. Glaciol., 16, 127, 10.1017/S0260305500004924 Hietz, 1995, Structure and ecology of epiphyte communities of a cloud forest in Central Veracruz, Mexico, J. Vegetation Sci., 6, 719, 10.2307/3236443 Holder, 1998, Fog precipitation in the Sierra de las Minas Biosphere Reserve, Guatemala Holdridge, 1947, Determination of world plant formations from simple climatic data, Science, 105, 267, 10.1126/science.105.2727.367 Houze, 1993 Hue, 1986, Effects of organic acids on aluminum toxicity of subsoils, Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J., 50, 28, 10.2136/sssaj1986.03615995005000010006x Hulme, 1998, A climate change scenario for the tropics, Clim. Change, 39, 145, 10.1023/A:1005376007729 Juvik, 1995, Relationships between rainfall, cloud–water Interception and canopy throughfall in a Hawaiian Montane forest, 165 Kitayama, 1995, Biophysical conditions of the montane cloud forests of Mount Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia, 183 Körner, 1994, Impact of atmospheric changes on high mountain vegetation, 167 Kuiters, 1990, Role of phenolic substances from decomposing forest litter in plant–soil interactions, Acta Bot. Neerl., 39, 329, 10.1111/j.1438-8677.1990.tb01412.x Leo, 1995, The importance of tropical montane cloud forest for preserving vertebrate endemism in Peru: the Rio Abiseco National Park as a case study, 198 León, 1996, Distribution of pteridophyte diversity and endemism in Peru, 77 Long, 1995, Restricted-range and threatened bird species in tropical montane cloud forests: what do we really know?, 79 Lowry, 1973, Effect of drought on Mount Kinabalu, Ecol. Syst., 6, 178 Maley, 1991, The African rain forest vegetation and paleoenvironments during late Quaternary, Clim. Change, 19, 79, 10.1007/BF00142216 Maley, 1996, The African rain forest—main characteristics of changes in vegetation and climate from the Upper Cretaceous to the Quaternary, Proc. R. Soc. Edinburgh, 104B, 31 Maley, J., 1997. Middle to Late Holocene Changes in Tropical Africa and Other Continents: Paleomonsoon and Sea Surface Temperature Variations. Third Millennium BC Climate Change and Old World Collapse. Maley, 1998, Vegetation dynamics, palaeoenvironments and climatic changes in the forests of western Cameroon during the last 28,000 years B.P., Rev. Paleobot. Palynol., 99, 157, 10.1016/S0034-6667(97)00047-X Maley, 1993, The role of clouds in the evolution of tropical African mountain paleoenvironments, Veille Climatique Satellitaire, Lannion, 46, 51 Markham, 1998, Potential impacts of climate change on tropical forest ecosystems (guest editorial), Clim. Change, 39, 141, 10.1023/A:1005396327379 Medeiros, 1995, Conservation of cloud forests in Maui County (Maui, Moloka'i and Lana'i), Hawaiian Islands, 223 Melillo, 1996, Terrestrial biotic responses to environmental change and feedbacks to climate, 449 Merlin, 1995, Montane cloud forest in the tropical pacific: some aspects of their floristics, biogeography, ecology and conservation, 149 Mitchell, 1992, Carbon dioxide and climate: mechanisms of changes in clouds, J. Clim., 5, 5, 10.1175/1520-0442(1992)005<0005:CDACMO>2.0.CO;2 Morley, 1993, Holocene temperature patterns in the South Atlantic, southern and Pacific Oceans, 125 Myers, 1991, Tropical forests: present status and future outlook, Clim. Change, 19, 3, 10.1007/BF00142209 Neilson, 1995, A model for predicting continental-scale vegetation distribution and water balance, Ecol. Appl., 5, 362, 10.2307/1942028 Northup, 1995, Intraspecific variation of conifer phenolic concentration on a maritime terrace soil acidity gradient: a new interpretation, Plant Soil, 171, 255, 10.1007/BF00010279 Ohsawa, 1990, An interpretation of latitudinal patterns of forest limits in south and east Asian mountains, Vegetatio, 97, 1, 10.1007/BF00033897 Ohsawa, 1993, Forest patter along hierarchical habitat gradients in east Asia, vol. 29, 30 Ohsawa, 1995, Latitudinal comparison of altitudinal changes in forest structure, leaf-type and species richness in humid monsoon asia, Vegetatio, 123, 3, 10.1007/BF00044667 Ohsawa, 1995, The montane cloud forest and its gradational changes in southeast Asia, 254 Olander, 1998, Impacts of disturbance initiated by road construction in a subtropical cloud forest in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico, For. Ecol. Manag., 109, 33, 10.1016/S0378-1127(98)00261-8 Persson, 1974 Peters, 1985, The greenhouse effect and nature reserves: global warming would diminish biological diversity by causing extinctions among reserve species, Bioscience, 35, 707, 10.2307/1310052 Pounds, 1997, Tests of null models for amphibian declines on a tropical mountain, Conserv. Biol., 11, 1307, 10.1046/j.1523-1739.1997.95485.x Pounds, 1999, Biological response to climate change on a tropical mountain, Nature, 398, 611, 10.1038/19297 Prentice, 1992, A global biome model based on plant physiology and dominance, soil properties and climate, J. Biogeogr., 19, 117, 10.2307/2845499 Raynor, 1995, Montane cloud forests in Micronesia: status and future management, 274 Richardson, 2000, Effects of nutrient availability and other elevational changes on bromeliad populations and their invertebrate communities in a humid tropical forest in Puerto Rico, J. Trop. Ecol., 16, 167, 10.1017/S0266467400001346 Rind, 1986, The dynamics of warm and cold climates, J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 3, 10.1175/1520-0469(1986)043<0003:TDOWAC>2.0.CO;2 Roset, 1987, Néolithisation, Néolithique et post-Néolithique au Niger nordoriental, Bull. Assoc. Fr. Et., 203 Santer, 2000, Interpreting differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower troposphere, Science, 287, 1227, 10.1126/science.287.5456.1227 Sarmiento, 1995, Human impacts on the cloud forests of Upper Guayllabamba river basin, Ecuador, and suggested management responses, Ecol. Studies, 110, 284, 10.1007/978-1-4612-2500-3_20 Sarmiento, 1997, Arrested succession in pastures hinders regeneration of Tropoandean forests and shreds mountain landscapes, Environ. Conserv., 24, 14, 10.1017/S0376892997000052 Sarmiento, 1997, Landscape regeneration by seeds and successional pathways to restore fragile tropandean slopelands, Mountain Res. Dev., 17, 239, 10.2307/3673851 Scatena, 1995, The management of Luquillo elfin cloud forest ecosystems: irreversible decisions in a nonsubstitutable ecosystem, 191 Scatena, 1998, An assessment of climate change in the Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico Schellekens, 1998, Interception of horizontal precipitation by elfin cloud forest in the Luquillo Mountains, Eastern Puerto Rico, 29 Schellekens, 2000, Evaportation from a troipcal rain forest, Luquilla Experimental Forest, eastern Puero Rico, Water Resour. Res., 36, 2183, 10.1029/2000WR900074 Schneider, 1978, Cloudiness as a climatic feedback mechanism: effects on cloud amounts of prescribed global and regional surface temperature changes in the NCAR-GCM, J. Atmos. Sci., 35, 2207, 10.1175/1520-0469(1978)035<2207:CAACFM>2.0.CO;2 Schubert, 1992, The glaciers of the Sierra Nevada de Mérida (Venezuela): a photographic comparison of recent deglaciation, Erdkunde, 46, 58, 10.3112/erdkunde.1992.01.06 Slingo, 1987, The development and verification of a cloud prediction scheme for the ECMWF model, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 113, 899, 10.1256/smsqj.47708 Smith, 1995, Global forests, 146 Stadtmüller, 1987 Still, 1999, Simulating the effects of climate change on troical montane cloud forests, Nature, 398, 608, 10.1038/19293 Street-Perrott, 1994, Palaeo-perspectives: changes in terrestrial ecosystems, Ambio, 23, 37 Sugden, 1981, Aspects of ecology of vascular epiphytes in two Colombian cloud forests: II. Habitat preferences of Bromeliaceae in the Serranı́a de Macuira, Selbyana, 5, 264 Sugden, 1982, The ecological, geographic and taxonomic relationships of an isolated Columbian cloud forest, with some implications for island biogeography, J. Arnold Arbor., 63, 31, 10.5962/p.247642 Sugden, 1982, The vegetation of the Serranı́a de Macuira, Guajira, Colombia: a contrast of arid lowlands and an isolated cloud forest, J. Arnold Arbor., 63, 1, 10.5962/p.37027 Sugden, 1983, Determinants of species composition in some isolated neotropical cloud forests, 43 Tanner, 1990, Nitrogen and phosphorus fertilization of Jamaican montane forest trees, J. Trop. Ecol., 6, 231, 10.1017/S0266467400004375 Thompson, 1997, Greenland and Antarctic mass balances for present and doubled CO2 from the GENESIS version-2 global climate model, J. Clim., 10, 871, 10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<0871:GAAMBF>2.0.CO;2 Thompson, 1993, Recent warming: ice core evidence from tropical ice cores with emphasis on central Asia, Global Planet. Change, 7, 145, 10.1016/0921-8181(93)90046-Q Timmermann, 1999, Increased El Niño frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming, Nature, 398, 694, 10.1038/19505 Van der Kaars, 1997, Vegetation and climate change in West-Java, Indonesia during the last 135,000 years, Quat. Int., 37, 67, 10.1016/1040-6182(96)00002-X Vazquez-Garcia, 1995, Cloud forest archipelagos: preservation of fragmented montane ecosystems in tropical America, 315 Walker, 1987, Palynological light on tropical rain forest dynamics, Quat. Sci. Rev., 6, 77, 10.1016/0277-3791(87)90027-8 Walker, 1979, Late Quaternary vegetational history of the Enga District of upland Papua New Guinea, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B, 286, 265, 10.1098/rstb.1979.0034 Wallace, 1977 Weaver, 1990, Succession in the elfin woodland of the Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico, Biotropica, 22, 83, 10.2307/2388722 Werner, 1986, A comparison between two tropical montane ecosystems in Asia: Pidurutalagala (Ceylon/Sri Lanka) and Pangrango-Gede (Java), Mountain Res. Dev., 6, 335, 10.2307/3673374 Werner, 1995, Biogeography and ecology of the upper montane rain forest of Sri Lanka (Ceylon), 343 Werner, 1998, The mountain forests of Sri Lanka—a world of its own, 118 Werner, 1992, Structure and dynamics of the upper montane rain forests of Sri Lanka. Tropical Forests, 165 Werner, 1993, Conservation and restoration of montane forest communities in Thailand, 193 Whitmore, 1989, Tropical forest nutrients, where do we stand? A tour de horizon, 1 Woodward, 1987 Young, 1992, Biogeography of the montane forest zone of the eastern slopes of Peru, Mem. Mus. Hist. Nat., U.N.M.S.M., 21, 119 Young, 1998, Composition and structure of a timberline forest in north-central Peru. Forest Biodiversity, 593 Young, 1991, Diversity, ecology and distribution of high-elevation pteridophytes within Rio Abiseo National Park, north-central Peru, Fern Gazette, 16, 25 Zadroga, 1981, The hydrological importance of a montane cloud forest area of Costa Rica Zheng, 1999, A mechanism relating tropical Atlantic spring sea surface temperature and west African rainfall, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 125, 1129, 10.1256/smsqj.55603 Ziska, 1992, Physiological sensitivity of plants along an elevational gradient to UV-B radiation, Am. J. Bot., 79, 863, 10.2307/2444995