Mean radiant temperature – A predictor of heat related mortality

Urban Climate - Tập 10 - Trang 332-345 - 2014
Sofia Thorsson1, Joacim Rocklöv2, Janina Konarska1, Fredrik Lindberg1, Björn Holmer1, Bénédicte Dousset3, David Rayner1
1Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
2Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
3Hawaii Institute of Geophysics and Planetology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, USA

Tài liệu tham khảo

Akbari, 1997, Peak power and cooling energy savings of shade trees, Energy Build., 25, 139, 10.1016/S0378-7788(96)01003-1 Ali-Toudert, 2007, Thermal comfort in an east-west oriented street canyon in Freiburg (Germany) under hot summer conditions, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 87, 223, 10.1007/s00704-005-0194-4 Ali-Toudert, 2007, Effects of asymmetry, galleries, overhanging façades and vegetation on thermal comfort in urban street canyons, Solar Energy, 81, 742, 10.1016/j.solener.2006.10.007 Anderson, 2009, Weather-related mortality: how heat, cold, and heat waves affect mortality in the United States, Epidemiology, 20, 205, 10.1097/EDE.0b013e318190ee08 Anderson, 2011, Heat waves in the United States: mortality risk during heat waves and effect modification by heat wave characteristics in 43 U.S. communities, Environ. Health. Perspect., 119, 210, 10.1289/ehp.1002313 Armstrong, 2006, Models for the relationship between ambient temperature and daily mortality, Epidemiology, 17, 624, 10.1097/01.ede.0000239732.50999.8f ASHRAE, 2001 Åström, 2011, Heat wave impact on morbidity and mortality in the elderly population: a review of recent studies, Maturitas, 69, 99, 10.1016/j.maturitas.2011.03.008 Baccini, 2008, Heat effects on mortality in 15 European cities, Epidemiology, 19, 711, 10.1097/EDE.0b013e318176bfcd Barnett, 2000 Barnett, 2010, What measure of temperature is the best predictor of mortality?, Environ. Res., 110, 604, 10.1016/j.envres.2010.05.006 Barnett, 2012, Cold and heat waves in the United States, Environ. Res., 112, 218, 10.1016/j.envres.2011.12.010 Basu, 2002, Relation between elevated ambient temperature and mortality: a review of the epidemiologic evidence, Epidemiol. Rev., 24, 190, 10.1093/epirev/mxf007 Bouchama, 2007, Prognostic factors in heat wave related deaths: a meta-analysis, Arch. Intern. Med., 167, 2170, 10.1001/archinte.167.20.ira70009 Bruse, 1998, Simulating surface-plant-air interactions inside urban environments with a three dimensional numerical model, Environ. Model. Softw., 13, 373, 10.1016/S1364-8152(98)00042-5 De Dear, 2001, The adaptive model of thermal comfort and energy conservation in the built environment, Int. J. Biometeorol., 45, 100, 10.1007/s004840100093 Dousset, B., 1991. Surface temperature statistics over Los Angeles: the influence of land use. In: Proceedings of IGARSS-91, I.E.E.E. 2, pp. 367–371. Dousset, 2003, Satellites multi-sensors data analysis of urban surface temperatures and landcover, J. Photogrammet. Remote Sens., 58, 3 Dousset, 2011, Satellite monitoring of summer heat waves in the Paris metropolitan area, Int. J. Climatol., 31, 313, 10.1002/joc.2222 Emmanuel, 2007, Urban heat islands in humid and arid climates: role of urban form and thermal properties in Colombo, Sri Lanka and Phoenix, U.S.A. Clim. Res., 34, 241, 10.3354/cr00694 Erell, E., Pearlmutter, D., Boneh, D. and Kutiel, P.B., 2014. Effect of high-albedo materials on pedestrian heat stress in urban street canyons. Urban Climate 10 (P2), 367–386. Fouillet, 2006, Excess mortality related to the August 2003 heat wave in France, Int. Arch. Occup. Environ. Health, 80, 16, 10.1007/s00420-006-0089-4 Gabriel, 2011, Urban and rural mortality rates during heat waves in berlin and Brandenburg, Germany, Environ. Pollut., 159, 2044, 10.1016/j.envpol.2011.01.016 Givoni, 1988 Hajat, 2006, Impact of high temperatures on mortality: is there an added heat wave effect?, Epidemiology, 17, 632, 10.1097/01.ede.0000239688.70829.63 Hajat, 2010, Health effects of hot weather: from awareness of risk factors to effective health protection, Lancet, 375, 856, 10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61711-6 Holmer, 2007, Cooling rates, sky view factors and the development of intra-urban air temperature differences, Geogr. Ann., 89A, 1 Holmer, B., Thorsson, S., Linden, J., 2012. Evening evapotranspirative cooling in relation to vegetation and urban geometry in the city of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. Int. J. Climatol. (2012) in press. doi: 10.1002/joc.3561. Höppe, 1992, Ein neues Verfahren zur Bestimmung der mittleren Strahlungstemperatur im Freien, Wetter Leben, 44, 147 Jendritzky, 1999, Das Bioklima des Menschen in der Stadt, 126 Keatinge, 2000, Heat related mortality in warm and cold regions of Europe: observational study, Br. Med. J., 321, 670, 10.1136/bmj.321.7262.670 Konarska, 2013, Transmissivity of solar radiation through crowns of single urban trees – application for outdoor thermal climate modelling, Theor. Appl. Climatol. Koppe, C., Kovats, S., Jendritzky, G., Menne, B., 2004. Heat-waves: risks and responses, World Health Organization. Health and Global Environmental Change, SERIES, No. 2, Copenhagen, Denmark. Kovats, 2008, Heat stress and public health: a critical review, Annu. Rev. Public Health, 29, 41, 10.1146/annurev.publhealth.29.020907.090843 Laaidi, 2012, The impact of heat islands on mortality in Paris during the August 2003 heat wave, Environ. Health Perspect., 120, 254, 10.1289/ehp.1103532 Le Tertre, 2006, Impact of the 2003 heatwave on all-cause mortality in 9 French cities, Epidemiology, 17, 75, 10.1097/01.ede.0000187650.36636.1f Lindberg, F., The SOLWEIG-model, http://www.gvc.gu.se/Forskning/klimat/ stadsklimat/gucg/software/solweig/ (assessed 07.02.13.). Gothenburg University, Sweden, 2012. Lindberg, 2011, The influence of vegetation and building morphology on shadow patterns and mean radiant temperature in urban areas: model development and evaluation, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 105, 311, 10.1007/s00704-010-0382-8 Lindberg, 2011, Nature of vegetation and building morphology characteristics across a city: influence on shadow patterns and mean radiant temperatures in London, Urban Ecosyst., 14, 617, 10.1007/s11252-011-0184-5 Lindberg, 2008, SOLWEIG 1.0 – modeling spatial variations of 3D radiant fluxes and mean radiant temperature in complex urban settings, Int. J. Biometeorol., 52, 697, 10.1007/s00484-008-0162-7 Loridan, 2012, CSB Characterization of energy flux partitioning in urban environments: links with surface seasonal properties, J. Appl. Meteorol., 51, 219, 10.1175/JAMC-D-11-038.1 Matzarakis, 2009, Modelling radiation fluxes in simple and complex environments: basics of the RayMan model, Int. J. Biometeorol., 54, 131, 10.1007/s00484-009-0261-0 Mayer, 1987, Thermal comfort of man in different urban environments, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 38, 43, 10.1007/BF00866252 Mayer, 2008, Human thermal comfort in summer within an urban street canyon in Central Europe, Meteorol. Zeitschrift, 17, 241, 10.1127/0941-2948/2008/0285 McMichael, 2006, Climate change and human health: present and future risks, Lancet, 367, 859, 10.1016/S0140-6736(06)68079-3 Meehl, 2004, More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century, Science, 305, 994, 10.1126/science.1098704 Muthers, 2010, Summer climate and mortality in Vienna—a human-biometeorological approach of heat-related mortality during the heat waves in 2003, Wien Klin Wochenschr, 122, 525, 10.1007/s00508-010-1424-z Nastos, 2012, The effect of air temperature and human thermal indices on mortality in Athens, Greece, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 108, 591, 10.1007/s00704-011-0555-0 Oke, 1987 Oudin Åström, 2013, Attributing mortality from extreme temperatures to climate change in Stockholm, Sweden, Nat. Climate Change, 10.1038/nclimate2022 Parsons, 2003 Pascal, 2006, France’s heat health watch warning system, Int. J. Climatol., 50, 144 Pirard, 2005, Summary of the mortality impact assessment of the 2003 heat wave in France, Euro. Surveill., 10, 153, 10.2807/esm.10.07.00554-en Pollard, A., O’Driscoll, R., Pinder, D.N., The impact of solar radiation on the air temperature within a residential building. Conference paper No. 97, International Solar Energy Society 2001 Solar World Congress, Adelaide, November 2001. Ravault, 2004 Rocklöv, 2008, The effect of temperature on mortality in Stockholm 1998–2003: a study of lag structures and heat wave effects, Scand. J. Public Health, 36, 516, 10.1177/1403494807088458 Rocklöv, 2010, The effect of high ambient temperature on the elderly population in three regions of Sweden, Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 7, 2607, 10.3390/ijerph7062607 Rocklöv, 2011, Mortality related to temperature and persistent extreme temperatures: a study of cause-specific and age-stratified mortality, Occup. Environ. Med., 68, 531, 10.1136/oem.2010.058818 Rocklöv, 2012, On the estimation of heat-intensity and heat-duration effects in time series models of temperature-related mortality in Stockholm, Sweden Environ. Health, 11, 23, 10.1186/1476-069X-11-23 Rosenfeld, 1995, Mitigation of the urban heat island: materials, utility programs, updates, Energy Build., 22, 255, 10.1016/0378-7788(95)00927-P Schär, 2004, The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heat-waves, Nature, 427, 332, 10.1038/nature02300 Shashua-Bar, 2009, The cooling efficiency of urban landscape strategies in a hot dry climate, Landsc. Urban Plan., 92, 179, 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2009.04.005 Statistics Sweden, Statistical database, http://www.ssd.scb.se/databaser/makro/start.asp?lang=2 (assessed 22.02.13.). Statistics Sweden, Stockholm. Thorsson, 2007, Different methods for estimating the mean radiant temperature in an outdoor urban setting, Int. J. Climatol., 27, 1983, 10.1002/joc.1537 Thorsson, 2011, Potential changes in outdoor thermal comfort conditions in Gothenburg, Sweden due to climate change: the influence of urban geometry, Int. J. Climatol., 31, 324, 10.1002/joc.2231