Joint effects of storm surge and sea-level rise on US Coasts: new economic estimates of impacts, adaptation, and benefits of mitigation policy
Tóm tắt
Recent literature, the US Global Change Research Program’s National Climate Assessment, and recent events, such as Hurricane Sandy, highlight the need to take better account of both storm surge and sea-level rise (SLR) in assessing coastal risks of climate change. This study combines three models—a tropical cyclone simulation model; a storm surge model; and a model for economic impact and adaptation—to estimate the joint effects of storm surge and SLR for the US coast through 2100. The model is tested using multiple SLR scenarios, including those incorporating estimates of dynamic ice-sheet melting, two global greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy scenarios, and multiple general circulation model climate sensitivities. The results illustrate that a large area of coastal land and property is at risk of damage from storm surge today; that land area and economic value at risk expands over time as seas rise and as storms become more intense; that adaptation is a cost-effective response to this risk, but residual impacts remain after adaptation measures are in place; that incorporating site-specific episodic storm surge increases national damage estimates by a factor of two relative to SLR-only estimates, with greater impact on the East and Gulf coasts; and that mitigation of GHGs contributes to significant lessening of damages. For a mid-range climate-sensitivity scenario that incorporates dynamic ice sheet melting, the approach yields national estimates of the impacts of storm surge and SLR of $990 billion through 2100 (net of adaptation, cumulative undiscounted 2005$); GHG mitigation policy reduces the impacts of the mid-range climate-sensitivity estimates by $84 to $100 billion.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Abel, J R, Bram J, Deitz R, Orr J. (2012) What are the costs of Superstorm Sandy? Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Available online at http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2012/12/what-are-the-costs-of-superstorm-sandy.html
Bromirski PD, Cayan DR, Graham N, Flick RE, Tyree M (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) (2012) Coastal Flooding Potential Projections: 2000–2100. California Energy Commission, CEC-500-2012-XXX
Emanuel K, Sundararajan R, Williams J (2008) Hurricanes and global warming: results from downscaling IPCC AR4 Simulations. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 89:347–367
Frumhoff PC, McCarthy JJ, Melillo JM, Moser SC, Wuebbles DJ (2007) Confronting climate change in the U.S. Northeast: science, impacts, and solutions. Synthesis Report of the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA). Cambridge, MA: Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS)
Jelesnianski, CP, Chen J, Shaffer WA (1992) SLOSH: Sea, lake, and overland surges from hurricanes. NOAA Technical Report NWS 48, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U. S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC
Kirshen P, Merrill S, Slovinsky P, Richardson N (2012) Simplified method for scenario-based risk assessment adaptation planning in the Coastal Zone. Clim Chang 113:3–4. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0379-z
Lin N, Emanuel K, Oppenheimer M, Vanmarcke E (2012) Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change. Nat Clim Chang 2:462–467. doi:10.1038/nclimate1389
Meier MF, Dyurgerov MB, Rick UK, O’Neel S, Pfeffer WT, Anderson RS, Anderson SP, Glazovsky AF (2007) Glaciers dominate Eustatic sea‐level rise in the 21st Century. Science 317:1064–1067
Melillo JM, Richmond TC, Yohe GW (eds) (2014) Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. US Global Change Research Program. doi:10.7930/J0Z31WJ2
Mendelsohn R, Emanuel K, Chonabayashi S, Bakkensen L (2012) The impact of climate change on global tropical cyclone damage. Nat Clim Chang 2:205–209. doi:10.1038/nclimate1357
Narita D, Tol R, Anthoff D (2010) Economic costs of extratropical storms under climate change: An application of FUND. J Environ Plan Manag 53(3):371–384
NCDC (National Climatic Data Center) (2013) Billion-Dollar U.S. Weather/Climate Disasters 1980–2013. National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC. Downloaded from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/
Neumann JE, Hudgens DE, Herter J, Martinich J (2010a) Assessing sea-level rise impacts: a GIS-based framework and application to coastal New Jersey. Coast Manag 38(4):433–455
Neumann JE, Hudgens DE, Herter J, Martinich J (2010b) The Economics of Adaptation along Developed Coastlines. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Chang 2(1):89–98
Paltsev S, Monier E, Scott J, Sokolov A, Reilly J, Gao X, Schlosser A (2013) Integrated economic and climate projections for impact assessment. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0892-3
Sallenger AH, Doran KS, Howd PA (2012) Hotspot of accelerated sea-level rise on the Atlantic coast of North America. Nat Clim Chang 2:884–888
Tebaldi C, Strauss B, Zervas C (2012) Modeling sea-level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts Environ. Res Lett 7:014032
USACE (2000) Economic Guidance Memorandum (EGM) 01–03, Generic Depth-Damage Relationships
USACE (2003) Economic Guidance Memorandum (EGM) 04–01, Generic Depth-Damage Relationships for Residential Structures with Basements. 10 October 2003
Vermeer M, Rahmstorf S (2009) Global sea level linked to global temperature. Proc Natl Acad Sci 106(51):21527–21532