Long‐term trend of precipitation and runoff in Korean river basins

Hydrological Processes - Tập 22 Số 14 - Trang 2644-2656 - 2008
Deg‐Hyo Bae1, Il‐Won Jung1, Heejun Chang2
1Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Sejong University, 98 Kunja-Dong, Kwangjin-Gu, Seoul, 143-747, Korea
2Department of Geography, Portland State University, 1721 SW Broadway, Portland, OR, 97201, USA

Tóm tắt

AbstractThe spatial and temporal variations of precipitation and runoff for 139 basins in South Korea were investigated for 34 years (1968–2001). The Precipitation‐Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) was selected for the assessment of basin hydrologic response to varying climates and physiology. A non‐parametric Mann–Kendall's test and regression analysis are used to detect trends in annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation and runoff, while Moran's I is adapted to determine the degree of spatial dependence in runoff trend among the basins. The results indicated that the long‐term trends in annual precipitation and runoff were increased in northern regions and decreased in south‐western regions of the study area during the study period. The non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test showed that spring streamflow was decreasing, while summer streamflow was increasing. April precipitation decreased between 15% and 74% for basins located in south‐western part of the Korean peninsula. June precipitation increased between 18% and 180% for the majority of the basins. Trends in seasonal and monthly streamflow show similar patterns compared to trends in precipitation. Decreases in spring runoff are associated with decreases in spring precipitation which, accompanied by rising temperatures, are responsible for reducing soil moisture. The regional patterns of precipitation and runoff changes show a strong to moderate positive spatial autocorrelation, suggesting that there is a high potential for severe spring drought and summer flooding in some parts of Korea if these trends continue in the future. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.03.033

10.1111/j.0016-7363.2005.00671.x

Bae DH, 2006, Probabilistic medium‐ and long‐term reservoir inflow forecasts. (I) Long‐term runoff analysis, Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, 39, 261, 10.3741/JKWRA.2006.39.3.261

Bae DH, 1998, A fundamental study on the snowmelt effects for long‐term runoff analysis, Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, 31, 833

10.3741/JKWRA.2005.38.2.111

Beven JJ, 2001, Rainfall‐Runoff Modelling: The Primer

Boo KO, 2006, Change of extreme events of temperature and precipitation over Korea using regional projection of future climate change, Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L01701

10.1016/j.envsoft.2006.01.009

Burt JE, 1996, Elementary Statistics for Geographers

10.1002/hyp.6233

ChangH KimC FranczykJ.2007. Flood hazards and in urban areas of Korea and implications of climate change International workshop /The science and practice of flood diaster management in urbanizing Monsoon Asia Ching Mai Thailand. Available athttp://www.sea‐user.org/mweb.php?pg=86&sort=date(accessed 23 October 2007).

10.1002/hyp.6200

10.1002/hyp.1092

10.1023/B:CLIM.0000043141.54763.f8

10.1002/hyp.1061

10.2307/2287063

10.1002/hyp.300

10.1002/hyp.6130

10.1023/B:CLIM.0000037491.95395.bb

Hamon WR, 1961, Estimating potential evapotranspiration, Proceedings of the American Society of Civil Engineers, Journal of the Hydraulic Division, 87, 107

10.1029/WR018i001p00107

10.1002/joc.864

10.1175/1525-7541(2000)001<0524:AMACSF>2.0.CO;2

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.04.047

Im E S, 2006, Present climate simulation over Korea with a regional climate model using a one‐way double‐nested system, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 86, 187, 10.1007/s00704-005-0215-3

Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC).2007.The Physical Science Basis. Available athttp://www.ipcc.ch/(accessed 28 May 2007).

10.1002/hyp.275

10.1002/hyp.5873

JungIW BaeDH.2005.Regionalization of a continuous runoff model parameters based on basin physical characteristics. InProceedings of the XXXI IAHR Congress Seoul September 2005;302–309.

10.1002/hyp.6550

Kendall MG, 1975, Rank Correlation Methods

Kim KS, 2007, Statistical Assessment of the Impact of Climatic Change to Water Resources using Observed Data

Kim NW, 2004, The development of coupled SWAT‐SWMM model. (II) Model characteristics and evaluation, Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, 37, 599, 10.3741/JKWRA.2004.37.7.599

Kim NW, 2005, Long‐term runoff characteristics on HRU variations of PRMS, Journal of the Korean Water Resources Association, 38, 167, 10.3741/JKWRA.2005.38.2.167

10.1080/02508060508691881

Korea Water Resources Corporation (KOWACO).2006. Water Management Information System. Available athttp://www.wamis.go.kr/(accessed 23 October 2007).

Leavesley GH, 1983, Precipitation‐Runoff Modelling System, User's manual

10.1002/hyp.344

10.1680/wama.2006.159.2.129

Lee S, 2004, A variation of summer rainfall in Korea, Journal of the Korean Geographical Society, 39, 819

Lee SH, 2003, A tank model application to Soyanggang Dam and Chungju Dam with snow accumulation and snow melt, Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, 36, 851, 10.3741/JKWRA.2003.36.5.851

Lee SJ, 2005, Water cycle simulation for the dorimcheon catchment using WEP model, Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, 34, 275

Lee DR, 2001, Use of groundwater recharge as a variable for monthly streamflow prediction, Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, 34, 275

10.1111/j.1752-1688.1988.tb00900.x

10.1002/env.507

10.1002/hyp.5534

10.2307/1907187

10.1002/hyp.5132

National Research Council (NRC), 1991, Opportunities in the Hydrological Sciences

O'Sullivan D, 2003, Geographic Information Analysis

10.1002/hyp.5993

10.1002/hyp.5990

10.1093/comjnl/3.3.175

Wagener T, 2004, Rainfall‐runoff Modeling in Gauged and Ungauged Catchments, 10.1142/p335

10.1029/2006GL026418

10.1002/hyp.5532

10.1175/JCLI3794.1

10.1002/hyp.5846

10.1623/hysj.50.1.65.56338

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Hydrological Processes

Tập 22 Số 14

2644-2656

Thông tin tác giả