Ecological models based on people’s knowledge: a multi-step fuzzy cognitive mapping approach

Axelrod, R., 1976. Structure of Decision: The Cognitive Maps of Political Elites. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ. Bauer, V., 1975. Simulation, evaluation and conflict analysis in urban planning. In: Baldwin, M.M. (Ed.), Portraits of Complexity, Applications of Systems Methodologies to Societal Problems. Battelle Institute, Columbus, OH, pp. 179–192. Biggs, N.L., Lloyd, E.K., Wilson, R.J., 1976. Graph Theory: 1736–1936. Clarendon Press, Oxford. Bougon, 1977, Cognition in organizations: an analysis of the Utrecht Jazz Orchestra, Admin. Sci. Quart., 22, 606, 10.2307/2392403 Brown, 1992, Cognitive mapping and repertory grids for qualitative survey research: some comparative observations, J. Manage. Stud., 29, 287, 10.1111/j.1467-6486.1992.tb00666.x Buede, 1993, Convergence in problem solving: a prelude to quantitative analysis, IEEE Trans. Syst., Man, Cybernet., 23, 746, 10.1109/21.256547 Carley, K., 1990. Content analysis. In: Asher, R.E. (Ed.), The Encyclopedia of Language and Linguistics, vol. 2. Pergamon, Edinburgh, pp. 725–730. Carley, 1997, Extracting team mental models through textual analysis, J. Org. Behav., 18, 533, 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1379(199711)18:1+<533::AID-JOB906>3.3.CO;2-V Carley, 1992, Extracting, representing, and analyzing mental models, Social Forces, 70, 601, 10.1093/sf/70.3.601 Colwell, R.K., 1997. Estimate S: Statistical estimation of species richness and shared species from samples. Version 5. User’s Guide and application published at: http://www.viceroy.eeb.uconn.edu/estimates. Cossette, 1992, Mapping of an idiosyncratic schema, J. Manage. Stud., 29, 325, 10.1111/j.1467-6486.1992.tb00668.x Craiger, 1996, Simulating organizational behavior with fuzzy cognitive maps, Int. J. Comput. Intel. Org., 1, 120 Dadaser, F., Özesmi, U., 2001. Tuzla golu ekosistemi icin katilimci yonetim plani yontemi: bulanik biliseel haritalama yaklasimi (Participatory management plan for Tuzla Lake ecosystem: a fuzzy cognitive mapping approach). In: Proceedings of the IV National Environmental Engineering Congress, Mersin, Turkey, 7–10 November 2001, pp. 25–34. Dadaser, F., Özesmi, U., 2002. Stakeholder analysis for Sultan Marshes ecosystem: a fuzzy cognitive approach for conservation of ecosystems. In: EPMR2002, Environmental Problems of the Mediterranean Region, Nicosia, North Cyprus, 12–15 April 2002. Dadaser, F., 2002. Katilimci Yonetim Yaklasimiyla Tuzla Golu Ekosistem icin Cevre Yonetim Plani (An environmental management plan for Tuzla Lake ecosystem with a participatory management approach). M.S. thesis. Erciyes University, Kayseri, Turkey. Dickerson, 1994, Virtual worlds as fuzzy cognitive maps, Presence, 3, 173, 10.1162/pres.1994.3.2.173 Dreyfus-Leon, 2001, A spatial individual behaviour-based model approach of the yellowfin tuna fishery in the eastern Pacific Ocean, Ecol. Model., 146, 47, 10.1016/S0304-3800(01)00295-2 Eden, 1992, The analysis of cause maps, J. Manage. Stud., 29, 309, 10.1111/j.1467-6486.1992.tb00667.x Eden, C., Jones, S., Sims, D., 1979. Thinking in Organizations. The Macmillan Press, London. Gower, J.C., 1985. Measures of similarity, dissimilarity, and distance. In: Kotz, S., Johnson, N.L., Encyclopedia of statistical sciences,vol. 5. John Wiley & Sons, New York. Güneralp, 2003, Dynamic modelling of a shallow freshwater lake for ecological and economic sustainability, Ecol. Model., 167, 115, 10.1016/S0304-3800(03)00172-8 Hage, P., Harary, F., 1983. Structural Models in Anthropology. Oxford University Press, New York. Håkanson, 2003, A general dynamic model to predict biomass and production of phytoplankton in lakes, Ecol. Model., 165, 285, 10.1016/S0304-3800(03)00096-6 Harary, F., Norman, R.Z., Cartwright, D., 1965. Structural Models: An Introduction to the Theory of Directed Graphs. John Wiley & Sons, New York. Hart, 1977, Cognitive maps of three Latin American policy makers, World Politics, 30, 115, 10.2307/2010077 Hjortsø, C.N., 2004. Enhancing public participation in natural resource management using Soft OR—an application of strategic option development and analysis in tactical forest planning. Eur. J. Operation. Res. 152, 667–683. Hobbs, B.F., Ludsin, S.A., Knight, R.L., Ryan, P.A., Biberhofer, J., Ciborowski, J.J.H., 2002. Fuzzy cognitive mapping as a tool to define management objectives for complex ecosystems. Ecol. Appl. 12, 1548–1565. Hong, 2002, Knowledge-based data mining of news information on the Internet using cognitive maps and neural networks, Expert Syst. Appl., 23, 1, 10.1016/S0957-4174(02)00022-2 Iriondo, 2003, Structural equation modelling: an alternative for assessing causal relationships in threatened plant populations, Biol. Conserv., 113, 367, 10.1016/S0006-3207(03)00129-0 Iwasaki, 1994, Causality and model abstraction, Artif. Intell., 67, 143, 10.1016/0004-3702(94)90014-0 Jöreskog, K.G., 1977. Structural equation models in the social sciences. Specification, estimation and testing. In: Krishnaiah, P. (Ed.), Applications of Statistics. North-Holland Publishing, Amsterdam, pp. 265–287. Jørgensen, S.E., 1994. Fundamentals of Ecological Modelling. Elsevier, New York, 628 pp. Kim, 1998, Fuzzy implications of fuzzy cognitive map with emphasis on fuzzy causal relationships and fuzzy partially causal relationship, Fuzzy Sets Syst., 97, 303, 10.1016/S0165-0114(96)00349-1 Klein, 1982, Cognitive maps of decision-makers in a complex game, J. Operation. Res. Soc., 33, 63, 10.1057/jors.1982.7 Kosko, 1986, Fuzzy cognitive maps, Int. J. Man–Machine Stud., 1, 65, 10.1016/S0020-7373(86)80040-2 Kosko, B., 1987. Adaptive inference in fuzzy knowledge networks. In: Proceedings of the First IEEE International Conference on Neural Networks (ICNN-86), San Diego, CA, pp. 261–268. Kosko, B., 1988. Hidden patterns in combined and adaptive knowledge networks. In: Proceedings of the First IEEE International Conference on Neural Networks (ICNN-86), vol. 2, pp. 377–393. Kosko, B., 1992a. Fuzzy associative memory systems. In: Kandel, A. (Ed.), Fuzzy Expert Systems. CRC Press, Boca Raton, pp. 135–162. Kosko, B., 1992b. Neural Networks and Fuzzy Systems: A Dynamical Systems Approach to Machine Intelligence. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ. Langfield-Smith, 1992, Exploring the need for a shared cognitive map, J. Manage. Stud., 29, 349, 10.1111/j.1467-6486.1992.tb00669.x Laszlo, E., Artigiani, R., Combs, A., Csanyi, V., 1996. Changing visions, human cognitive maps: Past, Present, and Future. Praeger, Westport, Connecticut. Lee, 2002, Fuzzy cognitive map approach to web-mining inference amplification, Expert Syst. Appl., 22, 197, 10.1016/S0957-4174(01)00054-9 Luria, 2003, Evaluating a multi-criteria model for hazard assessment in urban design. The Porto Marghera case study, Environ. Impact Assess. Rev., 23, 625, 10.1016/S0195-9255(03)00091-X MacDonald, N., 1983. Trees and Networks in Biological Models. John Wiley and Sons, New York. Malone, D.W., 1975. An introduction to the application of interpretive structural modeling. In: Baldwin, M.M. (Ed.), Portraits of Complexity: Applications of Systems Methodologies to Societal Problems, Battelle Institute, Columbus, OH, pp. 119–126. Mason, R.O., Mitroff, I.I., 1981. Challenging strategic planning assumptions: Theory, cases and techniques. Wiley, New York. Mendoza, 2003, Qualitative multi-criteria approaches to assessing indicators of sustainable forest resource management, For. Ecol. Manage., 174, 329, 10.1016/S0378-1127(02)00044-0 Montazemi, 1986, The use of cognitive mapping for information requirements analysis, MIS Quart., 10, 45, 10.2307/248879 Nakamura, 1982, Decision support using causation knowledge base, IEEE Trans. Syst., Man, Cybernet. SMC, 12, 765, 10.1109/TSMC.1982.4308910 Özesmi, U., 1999a. Conservation strategies for sustainable resource use in the Kizilirmak Delta in Turkey. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, 230 pp. Özesmi, U., 1999b. Modeling ecosystems from local perspectives: fuzzy cognitive maps of the Kizilirmak Delta wetlands in Turkey. In: Proceedings of 1999 World Conference on Natural Resource Modelling, Halifax, NS, Canada, 23–25 June 1999. Özesmi, 1999, An artificial neural network approach to spatial habitat modelling with interspecific interaction, Ecol. Model., 116, 15, 10.1016/S0304-3800(98)00149-5 Özesmi, U., 2001a. Bilissel (Kognitif) Haritalamaya Gore Halkin Talepleri (The wants and desires of the local population based on cognitive mapping). In: Celil, A. (Ed.), Yusufeli Baraji Yeniden Yerlesim Plani (Yusufeli Damlake Resettlement Plan), Devlet Su Isleri (DSI) (State Hydraulic Works). Sahara Muhendislik, Ankara, pp. 154–169 Özesmi, U., 2001b. Uluabat Golu’nde Sulakalan-Insan Iliskileri ve Ilgi Sahibi Analizi (Uluabat Lake People-Wetland Relations and Stakeholder Group Analysis). DHKD Yayini, Ankara, 90 pp. Özesmi, U., Özesmi, S., 2001. A participatory approach to ecosystem conservation: Uluabat Lake environmental management plan using fuzzy cognitive maps and stakeholder analysis. In: Proceedings of the IV National Environmental Engineering Congress, Mersin, Turkey, 7–10 November 2001, pp. 16–24. Özesmi, 2003, A participatory approach to ecosystem conservation: fuzzy cognitive maps and stakeholder group analysis in Uluabat Lake, Turkey, Environ. Manage., 31, 518, 10.1007/s00267-002-2841-1 Palmquist, M.E., Carley, K.M., Dale, T.A., 1997. Application of computer-aided text analysis: Analyzing Literary and Nonliterary Texts. In: Roberts, C.W. (Ed.), Text Analysis for The Social Sciences: Methods for Drawing Statistical Interferenes from Texts and Transcripts. Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Publishers, Mahwah, NJ, pp. 171–189. Puccia, C.J., 1983. Qualitative models for east coast benthos. In: Lauenroth, W.K., Skogerboe, G.V., Flug, M. (Eds.), Analysis of Ecological Systems: State-of-the-Art in Ecological Modelling Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp. 719–724. Radomski, 1996, Decision making and modeling in freshwater sport-fisheries management, Fisheries, 21, 14, 10.1577/1548-8446(1996)021<0014:DMAMIF>2.0.CO;2 Rappaport, R.A., 1979. Ecology, Meaning, and Religion. North Atlantic Books, Richmond, CA. Reimann, 1998, On the design of artificial auto-associative neural networks, Neural Networks, 11, 611, 10.1016/S0893-6080(98)00001-X Roberts, 1973, Building and analyzing an energy demand signed digraph, Environ. Plann., 5, 199, 10.1068/a050199 Roberts, F.S., 1976. The questionnaire method. In: Axelrod, R. (Ed.), Structure of Decision: The Cognitive Maps of Political Elites. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, pp. 333–342. Sandell, K., 1996. Sustainability in theory and practice: a conceptual framework of eco-strategies and a case study of low-resource agriculture in the dry zone of Sri lanka. In: Hjort-af-Ornãs, A. (Ed.), Approaching Nature from Local Communities: Security Percieved and Achieved. Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden, pp. 163–197. Schneider, 1998, Automatic construction of FCMs, Fuzzy Sets Syst., 93, 161, 10.1016/S0165-0114(96)00218-7 Shipley, B., 2000. Cause and Correlation in Biology: A User’s Guide to Path Analysis, Structural Equations and Causal Inference. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Simon, H.A., 1996. The Science of the Artificial. The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA. Skov, 2003, Predicting plant species richness in a managed forest, For. Ecol. Manage., 6200, 1 Stave, 2003, A system dynamics model to facilitate public understanding of water management options in Las Vegas, Nevada, J. Environ. Manage., 67, 303, 10.1016/S0301-4797(02)00205-0 Styblinski, M.A., Meyer, B.D., 1988. Fuzzy cognitive maps, signal flow graphs, and qualitative circuit analysis. In: Proceedings of the 2nd IEEE International Conference on Neural Networks (ICNN-87), San Diego, CA, pp. 549–556. Taber, 1991, Knowledge processing with fuzzy cognitive maps, Expert Syst. Appl., 2, 83, 10.1016/0957-4174(91)90136-3 Taber, W.R., Siegel, M.A., 1987. Estimation of expert weights using fuzzy cognitive maps. In: Proceedings of the First IEEE International Conference on Neural Networks (ICNN-86), pp. 319–325. Tolman, 1948, Cognitive maps in rats and men, Psychol. Rev., 55, 189, 10.1037/h0061626 Wrightson, M.T., 1976. The documentary coding method. In: Axelrod, R. (Ed.), Structure of Decision: The Cognitive Maps of Political Elites. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, pp. 291–332. Yalçın, N., Seçme, G., 2001. Bulanik Bilissel Haritama Teknigi Ile Kayseri Sanayiinin Problemlerinin Tespit Edilmesi ve Gelisme Imkanlarinin Gosterilmesi. (Fuzzy cognitive mapping technique to examine the problems and development opportunities for Kayseri Industry). Graduation thesis, Erciyes University Industrial Engineering Department. Yamada, 2003, Eliciting and integrating expert knowledge for wildlife habitat modelling, Ecol. Model., 165, 251, 10.1016/S0304-3800(03)00077-2 Zhang, W., Chen, S., 1988. A logical architecture for cognitive maps. In: Proceedings of IEEE International Conference on Neural Networks, San Diego, CA, pp. 231–238.