Opinion Dynamics and Learning in Social Networks

Dynamic Games and Applications - Tập 1 - Trang 3-49 - 2010
Daron Acemoglu1, Asuman Ozdaglar2
1Department of Economics, MIT, Cambridge, USA
2Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems, Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Department, MIT, Cambridge, USA

Tóm tắt

We provide an overview of recent research on belief and opinion dynamics in social networks. We discuss both Bayesian and non-Bayesian models of social learning and focus on the implications of the form of learning (e.g., Bayesian vs. non-Bayesian), the sources of information (e.g., observation vs. communication), and the structure of social networks in which individuals are situated on three key questions: (1) whether social learning will lead to consensus, i.e., to agreement among individuals starting with different views; (2) whether social learning will effectively aggregate dispersed information and thus weed out incorrect beliefs; (3) whether media sources, prominent agents, politicians and the state will be able to manipulate beliefs and spread misinformation in a society.

Tài liệu tham khảo

Acemoglu D, Ozdaglar A, ParandehGheibi A (2010) Spread of (mis)information in social networks. Games Econ Behav, forthcoming Acemoglu D, Como G, Fagnani F, Ozdaglar A (2010) Persistent disagreement in social networks. Working paper Acemoglu D, Bimpikis K, Ozdaglar A (2010) Communication information dynamics in (endogeneous) networks. LIDS report 2813, working paper Acemoglu D, Dahleh M, Lobel I, Ozdaglar A (2010) Heterogeneity and social learning. Working paper Acemoglu D, Dahleh M, Lobel I, Ozdaglar A (2009) Bayesian learning in social networks. LIDS report 2780 Acemoglu D, Chernozhukov V, Yildiz M (2007) Learning and disagreement in an uncertain world. Working paper Aldous D, Fill J (2002) Reversible Markov chains and random walks on graphs. Monograph in preparation. http://www.stat.berkeley.edu/aldous/RWG/book.html Allen B (1981) Generic existence of completely revealing equilibria for economies with uncertainty when prices convey information. Econometrica 49(5):1173–1199 Deffuant G, Amblard F, Weisbuch G, Faure T (2002) How can extremism prevail? A study based on the relative agreement interaction model. J Artif Soc Soc Simul 5(4) Bala V, Goyal S (1998) Learning from neighbours. Rev Econ Stud 65(3):595–621 Banerjee A (1992) A simple model of herd behavior. Q J Econ 107:797–817 Banerjee A, Fudenberg D (2004) Word-of-mouth learning. Games Econ Behav 46:1–22 Bikhchandani S, Hirshleifer D, Welch I (1992) A theory of fads, fashion, custom, and cultural change as information cascades. J Polit Econ 100:992–1026 Binmore K (2008) Rational decisions. Princeton University Press, Princeton Bisin A, Verdier T (2001) The economics of cultural transmission and the dynamics of preferences. J Econ Theory 97(2):298–319 Bisin A, Verdier T (2000) Beyond the melting pot: cultural transmission, marriage, and the evolution of ethnic and religious traits. Q J Econ 115(3):955–988 Blondel VD, Hendrickx JM, Tsitsiklis JN (2009) On Krause’s multi-agent consensus model with state-dependent connectivity. IEEE Trans Autom Control 54(11):2586–2597 Boyd S, Ghosh A, Prabhakar B, Shah D (2005) Gossip algorithms: design, analysis, and applications. In: Proceedings of IEEE INFOCOM Boyd R, Richerson PJ (1985) Culture and the evolutionary process. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago Cavalli-Sforza LL, Feldman MW (1981) Cultural transmission and evolution: a quantitative approach. Princeton University Press, Princeton Chamley C, Gale D (1994) Information revelation and strategic delay in a model of investment. Econometrica 62:1065–1086 Chen Y, Kartik N, Sobel J (2008) Selecting cheap talk equilibria. Econometrica 76(1):117–136 Clifford P, Sudbury A (1973) A model for spatial conflict. Biometrika 60:581–588 de Condorcet NC (1785) Essai sur l’application de l’analyse à la probabilite des décisions rendues à la pluralite des voix. Imprimerie Royale, Paris Crawford V, Sobel J (1982) Strategic information transmission. Econometrica 50(6):1431–1451 Cripps M, Ely J, Mailath G, Samuelson L (2008) Common learning. Econometrica 76:909–933 Deffuant G, Neau D, Amblard F, Weisbuch G (2000) Mixing beliefs among interacting agents. Adv Complex Syst 3:87–98 DeGroot MH, Reaching a consensus. J Am Stat Assoc 69:118–121 DellaVigna S, Kaplan E (2007) The Fox News effect: media bias and voting. Q J Econ 122:1187–1234 DeMarzo PM, Vayanos D, Zwiebel J (2003) Persuasion bias, social influence, and unidimensional opinions. Q J Econ 118(3):909–968 Ellison G, Fudenberg D (1993) Rules of thumb for social learning. J Polit Econ 101(4):612–643 Ellison G, Fudenberg D (1995) Word-of-mouth communication and social learning. Q J Econ 110:93–126 Fagnani F, Zampieri S (2008) Randomized consensus algorithms over large scale networks. IEEE J Sel Areas Commun, forthcoming Farrell J, Rabin M (1996) Cheap talk. J Econ Perspect 10(3):103–118 Fortunato S, Stauffer D (2006) Computer simulations of opinions and their reactions to extreme events. In: Albeverio S, Jentsch V, Kantz H (eds) Extreme events in nature and society, 2005. Springer, Berlin Foster D, Vohra RV (1997) Calibrated learning and correlated equilibrium. Games Econ Behav 21:40–55 Foster D, Vohra RV (1999) Regret in the online decision problem. Games Econ Behav 29:7–35 Fudenberg D, Levine DK (1998) The theory of learning in games. MIT Press, Cambridge Fudenberg D, Tirole J (1991) Game theory. MIT Press, Cambridge Gale D, Kariv S (2003) Bayesian learning in social networks. Games Econ Behav 45(2):329–346 Galeotti A, Ghiglino C, Squintani F (2010) Strategic information transmission in networks. Working paper Galton F (1907) Vox populi. Nature 75:450–451 Gilboa I, Postlewaite A, Schmeidler D (2007) Rationality of belief. Or: why Savage’s axioms are neither necessary nor sufficient for rationality. Working paper Gilboa I, Schmeidler D (1995) Case-based decision theory. Q J Econ 110:605–639 Gilboa I, Schmeidler D (2001) A theory of case-based decisions. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Gintis H (2009) The bounds of reason: game theory and the unification of the behavioral sciences. Princeton University Press, Princeton Gladwell M (2000) The tipping point: how little things can make a big difference. Little Brown Glauber RJ (1963) Time-dependent statistics of the Ising model. J Math Phys 4:294–307 Golosov M, Lorenzoni G, Tsyvinski A (2009) Decentralized trading with private information. Working paper Golub B, Jackson MO (2010) How homophily affects diffusion and learning in networks. Unpublished manuscript Golub B, Jackson MO (2007) Naïve learning in social networks and the wisdom of crowds. Am Econ J, Microecon 2(1):112–149 Grossman SJ (1977) The existence of future markets, and my special expectations and informational externalities. Rev Econ Stud 44(2):431–449 Grossman S, Stiglitz JE (1980) On the impossibility of informationally efficient markets. Am Econ Rev 70(3):393–408 Gul F (1998) A comment on Aumann’s Bayesian view. Econometrica 66(4):923–927 Hagenbach J, Koessler F (2010) Strategic communication networks. Working paper Hart S, Mas-Colell A (2000) A simple adaptive procedure leading to correlated equilibrium. Econometrica 68(5):1127–1150 Haviv M, Van Der Heyden L (1984) Perturbation bounds for the stationary probabilities of a finite Markov chain. Adv Appl Probab 16(4):804–818 Hayek FA (1945) The use of knowledge in society. Am Econ Rev 35(4):519–530 Hegselmann R, Krause U (2002) Opinion dynamics and bounded confidence models, analysis, and simulations. J Artif Soc Soc Simul 5:1–33 Holley R, Liggett TM (1975) Ergodic theorems for weakly interacting systems and the voter model. Ann Probab 3:643–663 Jackson MO (2008) Social and economic networks. Princeton University Press, Princeton Jadbabaie A, Lin J, Morse S (2003) Coordination of groups of mobile autonomous agents using nearest neighbor rules. IEEE Trans Autom Control 48(6):988–1001 Krause U (2000) A discrete nonlinear and nonautonomous model of consensus formation. In: Elaydi S, Ladas G, Popenda J, Rakowski J (eds) Communications in difference equations. Gordon and Breach, Amsterdam Lee I (1993) On the convergence of informational cascades. J Econ Theory 61:395–411 Liggett TM (1985) Interacting particle systems. Springer, New York Lobel I, Ozdaglar A, Feijer D (2010) Distributed multi-agent optimization with state-dependent communication. LIDS report 2834 Lobel I, Ozdaglar A (2010) Distributed subgradient methods for convex optimization over random networks. LIDS report 2800. IEEE Trans Autom Control, to appear Lorenz J (2005) A stabilization theorem for dynamics of continuous opinions. Physica A 355:217–223 Mobilia M, Petersen A, Redner S (2007) On the role of zealotry in the voter model. J Stat Mech Theory Exp 128:447–483 Morgan J, Stocken P (2008) Information aggregation in polls. Am Econ Rev 98(3):864–896 Nedic A, Ozdaglar A (2009) Distributed subgradient methods for multi-agent optimization. IEEE Trans Autom Control 54(1):48–61 Olshevsky A, Tsitsiklis JN (2009) Convergence speed in distributed consensus and averaging. SIAM J Control Optim 48(1):33–55 Ostrovsky M (2009) Information aggregation in dynamic markets with strategic traders. Working paper Quine WV (1969) Natural kinds. In: Rescher N (ed) Essays in honor of Carl G. Hempel. Reidel, Dordrecht Radner R (1972) Existence of equilibrium of plans, prices and price expectations in a sequence of markets. Econometrica 40(2):289–303 Radner R (1982) Equilibrium under uncertainty. In: Arrow KJ, Intiligator MD (eds) Handbook of mathematical economics, vol 2. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp 923–1006 Richerson PJ, Boyd R (2005) Not by genes alone: how culture transformed human evolution. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago Robinson J (1951) An iterative method of solving a game. Ann Math 54:296–301 Samuelson L (1997) Evolutionary games and equilibrium selection. MIT Press, Cambridge Sandholm W (2010) Population games and evolutionary dynamics. MIT Press, Cambridge Savage LJ (1954) The foundations of statistics. Wiley, New York Schmeidler D (1989) Subjective probability and expected utility without additivity. Econometrica 57(2):571–587 Schweitzer PJ (1968) Perturbation theory and finite Markov chains. J Appl Probab 5(2):401–413 Simon HA (1957) Models of man. Wiley, New York Smith L, Sorensen P (1998) Rational social learning with random sampling. Unpublished manuscript Smith L, Sorensen P (2000) Pathological outcomes of observational learning. Econometrica 68(2):371–398 Tahbaz-Salehi A, Jadbabaie A (2008) A necessary and sufficient condition for consensus over random networks. IEEE Trans Autom Control 53(3):791–795 Tsitsiklis JN (1984) Problems in decentralized decision making and computation. PhD thesis, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Tsitsiklis JN, Bertsekas DP, Athans M (1986) Distributed asynchronous deterministic and stochastic gradient optimization algorithms. IEEE Trans Autom Control 31(9):803–812 Vives X (1997) Learning from others: a welfare analysis. Games Econ Behav 20:177–200 Watts D (2003) Six degrees: the science of a connected age. Norton, New York Weibull J (1995) Evolutionary game theory. MIT Press, Cambridge Weisbuch G, Kirman A, Herreiner D (2000) Market organization. Economica 110:411–436 Welch I (1992) Sequential sales, learning and cascades. J. Finance 47:695–732 Wolinsky A (1990) Information revelation in a market with pairwise meetings. Econometrica 58(1):1–23 Wu F, Huberman B (2008) How public opinion forms. In: WINE’ 08