Developing regional and species-level assessments of climate change impacts on biodiversity in the Cape Floristic Region

Biological Conservation - Tập 112 Số 1-2 - Trang 87-97 - 2003
Guy F. Midgley1,2, Lee Hannah1, David Millar1,2, Wilfried Thuiller3, Anthony J. Booth4
1Center for Applied Biodiversity Science, Conservation International, 1919 M St., NW, Washington, DC 20036, USA
2Climate Change Research Group, Kirstenbosch Research Centre, National Botanical Institute, P/Bag ×7, Claremont 7735, Cape Town, South Africa
3Functional and Evolutionary Ecology Centre, CNRS UPR 9056, Montpellier, France
4Department of Icthyology, Rhodes University, PO Box 94, Grahamstown 6140, South Africa

Tóm tắt

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Bakkenes, 2002, Assessing the effects of forecasted climate change on the diversity and distribution of European higher plants for 2050, Global Change Biology, 8, 390, 10.1046/j.1354-1013.2001.00467.x

Broecker, 1999, What if the conveyor were to shut down? Reflections on a possible outcome of the great global experiment, GSA Today, 9, 1

Busby, 1991, A bioclimatic analysis and prediction system, 64

Cowling, 1992

Cowling, 1999, Planning for persistence—systematic reserve design in southern Africa's Succulent Karoo desert, Parks, 9, 17

Cowling, 2001, Rapid plant diversification, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 98, 5452, 10.1073/pnas.101093498

Cowling, 1989, Patterns of plant species diversity in southern Africa, 19

Cowling, 1998, Extraordinarily high regional-scale plant diversity in southern African arid lands, Diversity and Distributions, 4, 27

Cowling, 1999, From representation to persistence, Diversity and Distributions, 5, 1, 10.1046/j.1472-4642.1999.00038.x

Cowling, 1999, Fossil wood charcoal assemblages from Elands Bay Cave, South Africa, Journal of Biogeography, 26, 367, 10.1046/j.1365-2699.1999.00275.x

Cowling, R.M., Pressey, R.L., Lombard, A.T., Heijnis, C.E., Richardson, D.M., Cole, N., 1999. Framework for a Conservation Plan for the Cape Floristic Region (IPC Report 9902) submitted to WWF, SA.

Cowling, R.M., Pressey, R.L., Rouget, M., Lombard, A.T., 2003. A conservation plan for a global biodiversity hotspot—the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa. Biological Conservation 112, 191–216.

Cramer, 2001, Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change, Global Change Biology, 7, 357, 10.1046/j.1365-2486.2001.00383.x

1999

Drake, 1997, More efficient plants, Annual Review of Plant Physiology and Plant Molecular Biology, 48, 609, 10.1146/annurev.arplant.48.1.609

Graham, 1990, Effects of global climate change on the patterns of terrestrial biological communities, Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 5, 289, 10.1016/0169-5347(90)90083-P

Halpin, 1997, Global climate change and natural-area protection, Ecological Applications, 7, 828, 10.1890/1051-0761(1997)007[0828:GCCANA]2.0.CO;2

Hannah, 2002, Conservation of biodiversity in a changing climate, Conservation Biology, 16, 264, 10.1046/j.1523-1739.2002.00465.x

Hastie, 1990

Hewitt, 2000, The genetic legacy of the quaternary ice ages, Nature, 405, 907, 10.1038/35016000

Hughes, 2000, Biological consequences of global warming, Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 15, 56, 10.1016/S0169-5347(99)01764-4

Huntley, 1983

Le Maitre, 1992, Plant reproductive ecology

Midgley, 2001, Past climate change and the generation and persistence of species richness in a biodiversity hotspot, the Cape Flora of South Africa, 393, 10.1007/0-306-48051-4_36

Midgley, 1995, The effects of elevated CO2 on Cape Fynbos species adapted to soils of different nutrient status, Journal of Biogeography, 22, 185, 10.2307/2845909

Midgley, 1999, Nutrient and genotypic constraints on CO2-responsiveness, Journal of Experimental Botany, 50, 533, 10.1093/jxb/50.333.533

Midgley, 2001, Have Pleistocene climatic cycles influenced species richness patterns in the Greater Cape Mediterranean Region?, Journal of Mediterranean Ecology, 2, 137

Midgley, G.F., Hannah, L., Millar, D., Rutherford, M.C., Powrie, L.W. Assessing the vulnerability of species richness to anthropogenic climate change in a biodiversity hotspot. Global Ecology and Biogeography (in press).

Parkington, 2000, Palaeovegetation at the last glacial maximum in the western Cape, South Africa, South African Journal of Science, 96, 543

Parmesan, 1996, Climate and species' range, Nature, 382, 765, 10.1038/382765a0

Parmesan, 1999, Poleward shifts in geographical ranges of butterfly species associated with global warming, Nature, 399, 579, 10.1038/21181

Peterson, 2002, Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios, Nature, 416, 626, 10.1038/416626a

Pimm, 2001, Entrepreneurial insects, Nature, 411, 531, 10.1038/35079206

Prentice, 1992, A global biome model based on plant physiology and dominance, soil properties and climate, Journal of Biogeography, 19, 117, 10.2307/2845499

Rebelo, 2001

Rouget, M., Richardson, D.M., Cowling, R.M., 2003. The current configuration of protected areas in the Cape Floristic Region—reservation bias and representation of biodiversity patterns and processes. Biological Conservation 112, 129–145.

Rutherford, 1994, Biomes of southern Africa—an objective categorization, Memoirs of the Botanical Survey of South Africa, 63, 1

Schulze, R.E., 1997. South African Atlas of Agrohydrology and Climatology (Water Research Commission Report TT82/96). Pretoria, South Africa.

Schulze, R.E., Perks, L.A., 1999. Assessment of the Impact of Climate. Final Report to the South African Country Studies Climate Change Programme. School of Bioresources Engineering and Environmental Hydrology. University of Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa.

Shi, 1998, Vegetation and climate changes during the last 21,000 years in south-west Africa based on a marine pollen record, Vegetation History and Archaeobotany, 7, 127, 10.1007/BF01374001

Stock, 1995, Ecosystem response to elevated CO2, 326

Taylor, 1978, Capensis, 171

Tyson, 2002, Regional–global change linkages, 3

Wand, S.J.E., Midgley, G.F., Millar, D. Recent temperature trends in the southwestern Cape, South Africa: potential implications for horticulture and natural vegetation. Personal communication.

Warren, 2001, Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change, Nature, 414, 65, 10.1038/35102054

Yee, 1991, Generalized additive models in plant ecology, Journal of Vegetation Science, 2, 587, 10.2307/3236170

Younge, 2000

Zachos, 2001, Trends, rhythms and aberrations in global climate 65 Ma to present, Science, 292, 686, 10.1126/science.1059412