Seasonal variations of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) in drinking water and health risk assessment via Monte Carlo simulation and Sobol sensitivity analysis in southern Iran's largest city

The escalating concern over the presence and health implications of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) in drinking water has underscored the need for rigorous risk assessments. Our study aimed to quantify both the non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic health risks associated with exposure to selected PTEs—namely arsenic (As), chromium (Cr), and cadmium (Cd). Also, we evaluated ingestion and skin contact exposures to risks during summer and winter using metrics such as the hazard quotient (HQ), hazard index (HI), and cancer risk (CR) for children, adult males, and adult females. For all demographic groups and exposure pathways, the HQ values remain below the established safety threshold (HQ < 1). Notably, As consistently had the highest average HI value across children, male adults, and female adults. Seasonal variations were statistically significant (p < 0.05) for As and Cr, but not Cd. During the summer, the average total carcinogenic risks (TCR) from drinking water exposure were 7.61 × 10–6, 8.94 × 10–6, and 1.12 × 10–5 for children, male adults, and female adults, respectively. In the winter, these values were 1.18 × 10–5, 1.40 × 10–5, and 1.75 × 10–5, respectively. The fuzzy C-means clustering analysis provided insights into our dataset's Cr, Cd, and As distribution patterns. Results indicate that As, Cr, and Cd mean concentrations were below the World Health Organization health-based guidelines. The CR values for children and adults from drinking water exposure were slightly above or below the US Environmental Protection Agency’s standards. These findings can inform research and policy-making regarding the risk of PTEs in drinking water and highlight the need to monitor Shiraz water regularly.