The Conundrum of Heterogeneities in Life History Studies

Clutton-Brock, 1988 Newton, 1989 Curio, 1983, Why de young birds reproduce less well?, Ibis, 125, 400, 10.1111/j.1474-919X.1983.tb03130.x Wilson, 2010, What is individual quality? An evolutionary perspective, Trends Ecol. Evol., 25, 207, 10.1016/j.tree.2009.10.002 Bergeron, 2011, Individual quality: tautology or biological reality?, J. Anim. Ecol., 80, 361, 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2010.01770.x Van Noordwijk, 1986, Acquisition and allocation of resources: their influence on variation in life history tactics, Am. Nat., 137, 10.1086/284547 Johnson, 1984, The role of heterogeneity in animal population dynamics, Proc. Int. Biometrics Conf., 13, 1 Conner, 1999, Effects of individual heterogeneity in estimating the persistence of small populations, Nat. Resour. Model., 12, 109, 10.1111/j.1939-7445.1999.tb00005.x Stover, 2012, Demographic heterogeneity impacts density-dependent population dynamics, Theor. Ecol., 5, 297, 10.1007/s12080-011-0129-x Zarulli, 2016, Unobserved heterogeneity of frailty in the analysis of socioeconomic differences in health and mortality, Eur. J. Population, 32, 55, 10.1007/s10680-015-9361-1 Zens, 2003, Dealing with death data: individual hazards, mortality and bias, Trends Ecol. Evol., 18, 366, 10.1016/S0169-5347(03)00096-X Service, 2000, Heterogeneity in individual mortality risk and its importance for evolutionary studies of senescence, Am. Nat., 156, 1, 10.1086/303371 Vaupel, 1979, The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality, Demography, 16, 439, 10.2307/2061224 Vaupel, 1985, Heterogeneity's ruses: some surprising effects of selection on population dynamics, Am. Stat., 39, 176 van de Pol, 2006, Age-dependent traits: a new statistical model to separate within- and between-individual effects, Am. Nat., 167, 766, 10.1086/503331 Bouwhuis, 2009, Great tits growing old: selective disappearance and the partitioning of senescence to stages within the breeding cycle, Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B, 276, 2769, 10.1098/rspb.2009.0457 Zhang, 2014, Contrasting between- and within-individual trait effects on mortality risk in a long-lived seabird, Ecology, 96, 71, 10.1890/14-0064.1 Nothdurft, 2013, Spatio-temporal prediction of tree mortality based on long-term sample plots, climate change scenarios and parametric frailty modeling, Forest Ecol. Manag., 291, 43, 10.1016/j.foreco.2012.11.028 Bonnet, 2016, Successful by chance? The power of mixed models and neutral simulations for the detection of individual fixed heterogeneity in fitness components, Am. Nat., 187, 60, 10.1086/684158 Jenouvrier, 2015, Extreme climate events and individual heterogeneity shape life-history traits and population dynamics, Ecol. Monogr., 85, 605, 10.1890/14-1834.1 Plard, 2012, Modeling reproductive trajectories of roe deer females: fixed or dynamic heterogeneity?, Theor. Pop. Biol., 82, 317, 10.1016/j.tpb.2012.03.006 Royle, 2008, Modeling individual effects in the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model: a state–space formulation, Biometrics, 64, 364, 10.1111/j.1541-0420.2007.00891.x Marzolin, 2011, Frailty in state-space models: application to actuarial senescence in the Dipper, Ecology, 92, 562, 10.1890/10-0306.1 Cam, 2002, Individual covariation between life-history traits: seeing the trees despite the forest, Am. Nat., 159, 96, 10.1086/324126 Hawkes, 2010, How grandmother effects plus individual variation in frailty shape fertility and mortality: guidance from human–chimpanzee comparisons, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 107, 8977, 10.1073/pnas.0914627107 Knape, 2011, Individual heterogeneity and senescence in Silvereyes on Heron Island, Ecology, 92, 813, 10.1890/10-0183.1 Aubry, 2011, The role of unobserved and observed heterogeneity in shaping survival in a long-lived seabird, J. Anim. Ecol., 80, 375, 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2010.01784.x Fox, 2006, Consequences of heterogeneity in survival in a population of Florida scrub-jays, J. Anim. Ecol., 75, 921, 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2006.01110.x Hayward, 2013, Reproductive senescence in female Soay sheep: variation across traits and contributions of individual ageing and selective disappearance, Func. Ecol., 27, 184, 10.1111/1365-2435.12029 Chambert, 2013, Individual heterogeneity in reproductive rates and cost of reproduction in a long-lived vertebrate, Ecol. Evol., 3, 2047, 10.1002/ece3.615 Chambert, 2014, An evolutionary perspective on reproductive individual heterogeneity in a marine vertebrate, J. Anim. Ecol., 83, 1158, 10.1111/1365-2656.12211 Chambert, 2014, Use of posterior predictive checks as an inferential tool for investigating individual heterogeneity in animal population vital rates, Ecol. Evol., 4, 1389, 10.1002/ece3.993 Tuljapurkar, 2009, Dynamic heterogeneity in life histories, Ecol. Lett., 12, 93, 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01262.x Steiner, 2010, Dynamic heterogeneity and life history variability in the kittiwake, J. Anim. Ecol., 79, 436, 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2009.01653.x Steiner, 2012, Neutral theory for life histories and individual variability in fitness components, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 109, 4684, 10.1073/pnas.1018096109 Godfrey-Smith, 2001, Three kinds of adaptationism, 335 Pigliucci, 2000, The fall and rise of Dr Pangloss: adaptationism and the Spandrels paper 20 years later, Trends Ecol. Evol., 15, 66, 10.1016/S0169-5347(99)01762-0 Merilä, 2000, Lifetime reproductive success and heritability in nature, Am. Nat., 155, 301, 10.1086/303330 van de Pol, 2009, A simple method for distinguishing within- versus between-subject effects using mixed models, Anim. Behav., 77, 753, 10.1016/j.anbehav.2008.11.006 Lindberg, 2013, Individual heterogeneity in black brant survival and recruitment with implications for harvest dynamics, Ecol. Evol., 3, 4045, 10.1002/ece3.767 Dorazio, 2003, Mixture models for estimating the size of a closed population when capture rates vary among individuals, Biometrics, 59, 351, 10.1111/1541-0420.00042 Charmantier, 2014 Wilson, 2016, Quantitative genetics in natural populations, 361 Heckman, 2001, Micro data, heterogeneity, and the evaluation of public policy: Nobel lecture, J. Polit. Econ., 109, 673, 10.1086/322086 Arulampalam, 2008, The linked survival prospects of siblings: evidence for the Indian states, Popul. Stud., 62, 171, 10.1080/00324720802000176 Heckman, 1980, Does unemployment cause future unemployment? Definitions, questions and answers from a continuous time model of heterogeneity and state dependence, Economica, 47, 247, 10.2307/2553150 Heckman, 1981, Heterogeneity and state dependence, 91 Heckman, 1978, Simple statistical models for discrete panel data developed and applied to test the hypothesis of true state dependence against the hypothesis of spurious state dependence, Ann. INSEE, 227, 10.2307/20075292 Keane, 2009, Classification error in dynamic discrete choice models: implications for female labor supply behavior, Econometrica, 77, 975, 10.3982/ECTA7642 Cam, 2013, Looking for a needle in a haystack: inference about individual fitness components in a heterogeneous population, Oikos, 122, 739, 10.1111/j.1600-0706.2012.20532.x Nichols, 1995, The use of multi-state capture–recapture models to address questions in evolutionary ecology, J. Appl. Stat., 22, 835, 10.1080/02664769524658 Lebreton, 2009, Modeling individual animal histories with multistate capture–recapture models, 41, 87 Link, 2002, Model-based estimation of individual fitness, J. App. Stat., 29, 207, 10.1080/02664760120108700a Senner, 2015, An ontogenetic perspective on individual differences, Proc. R. Soc. B., 282, 20151050, 10.1098/rspb.2015.1050 Yashin, 2008, Model of hidden heterogeneity in longitudinal data, Theor. Popul. Biol., 73, 1, 10.1016/j.tpb.2007.09.001 Wienke, 2010 Iachine, 1998, How heritable is individual susceptibility to death?. The results of an analysis of survival data on Danish, Swedish and Finnish twins, Twin Res., 1, 196, 10.1375/twin.1.4.196 Kruuk, 2008, New answers for old questions: the evolutionary quantitative genetics of wild animal populations, Ann. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst., 39, 525, 10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.39.110707.173542 Vindenes, 2015, Individual heterogeneity in life histories and eco-evolutionary dynamics, Ecol. Lett., 18, 417, 10.1111/ele.12421 Fox, 2002, Demographic stochasticity and the variance reduction effect, Ecology, 83, 1928, 10.1890/0012-9658(2002)083[1928:DSATVR]2.0.CO;2 Kendall, 2011, Demographic heterogeneity, cohort selection, and population growth, Ecology, 92, 1985, 10.1890/11-0079.1 Keane, 1997, Modeling heterogeneity and state dependence in consumer choice Behavior, J. Bus. Econ. Stat., 15, 310 Halliday, 2008, Heterogeneity, state dependence and health, Econom. J., 11, 499, 10.1111/j.1368-423X.2008.00256.x Knights, 2002, Dynamic relationships in the Australian labor market: heterogeneity and state-dependence, Econ. Rec., 78, 284, 10.1111/1475-4932.00058 Bijwaard, 2014, Multistate event history analysis with frailty, Demographic Res., 30, 1591, 10.4054/DemRes.2014.30.58 Hyslop, 1999, State dependence, serial correlation and heterogeneity in intertemporal labor force participation of married women, Econometrica, 67, 1255, 10.1111/1468-0262.00080 Cam, 1998, Are adult nonbreeders prudent parents?, The kittiwake model. Ecology, 79, 2917 Orzack, 2011, Static and dynamic expression of life history traits in the northern fulmar Fulmarus glacialis, Oikos, 120, 369, 10.1111/j.1600-0706.2010.17996.x Hoffman, 1987, Introduction: neutral models as a biological research strategy, 3 Caswell, 2009, Stage, age and individual stochasticity in demography, Oikos, 118, 1763, 10.1111/j.1600-0706.2009.17620.x Caswell, 2014, A matrix approach to the statistics of longevity in heterogeneous frailty models, Demographic Res., 31, 553, 10.4054/DemRes.2014.31.19 Aalen, 2008 Heckman, 1977, A β-logistic model for the analysis of sequential labor force participation by married women, J. Pol. Econ., 85, 27, 10.1086/260544 Burnham, 2002 Pigliucci, 2010 Ahmad, 2014, State dependence in unemployment, Int. J. Econ. Fin. Issues, 4, 93 Baron, 2010, Cohort variation in offspring growth and survival: prenatal and postnatal factors in a late-maturing viviparous snake, J. Anim. Ecol., 79, 640, 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2010.01661.x Pennell, 2006, Bayesian semiparametric dynamic frailty models for multiple event time data, Biometrics, 62, 1044, 10.1111/j.1541-0420.2006.00571.x Munda, 2014, Testing for decreasing heterogeneity in a new time-varying frailty model, TEST, 1 Pradel, 2005, Multievent: an extension of multistate capture–recapture models to uncertain states, Biometrics, 61, 442, 10.1111/j.1541-0420.2005.00318.x Choquet, 2011, A semi-Markov model to assess reliably survival patterns from birth to death in free-ranging populations, Met. Ecol. Evol., 2, 383, 10.1111/j.2041-210X.2011.00088.x Bartolucci, 2012 Ma, 2011, Caring about trees in the forest: incorporating frailty in risk analysis for personalized medicine, Pers. Med., 8, 681, 10.2217/pme.11.72 Burnham, 2002, Evaluation of some random effects methodology applicable to bird ringing data, J. App. Stat., 29, 245, 10.1080/02664760120108755 Flaig, 1993, Testing for state dependence effects in a dynamic model of male unemployment behavior, ZEW Discussion Pap, 93 Skrondal, 2014, Handling initial conditions and endogeneous covariates in dynamic/transition models for binary data with unobserved heterogeneity, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. C., 63, 211, 10.1111/rssc.12023 Garibotti, 2006, Longevity and correlated frailty in multigenerational families, J. Ger. A. Biol. Sci. Med. Sci., 6, 1253, 10.1093/gerona/61.12.1253 Papaïx, 2010, Combining capture–recapture data and pedigree information to assess heritability of demographic parameters in the wild, J. Evol. Biol., 23, 2176, 10.1111/j.1420-9101.2010.02079.x Aubry, 2009, Consequences of recruitment decisions and heterogeneity on age-specific breeding success in a long-lived seabird, Ecology, 90, 2491, 10.1890/08-1475.1 Pardo, 2014, What shall I do now? State-dependent variations of life-history traits with aging in wandering albatrosses, Ecol. Evol., 4, 474, 10.1002/ece3.882 Grilli, 2015, Specification of random effects in multilevel models: a review, Qual. Quant., 49, 967, 10.1007/s11135-014-0060-5 Erosheva, 2014, Breaking bad: two decades of life-course data analysis in criminology, developmental psychology, and beyond, Ann. Rev. Stat. App., 1, 301, 10.1146/annurev-statistics-022513-115701 Bauer, 2009, Consequences of unmodeled nonlinear effects in multilevel models, J. Educ. Behav. Stat., 34, 97, 10.3102/1076998607310504 Koons, 2014, Methods for studying cause-specific senescence in the wild, Methods Ecol. Evol., 5, 924, 10.1111/2041-210X.12239 Péron, 2010, Capture–recapture models with heterogeneity to study survival senescence in the wild, Oikos, 119, 524, 10.1111/j.1600-1706.2009.17882.x Ohlssen, 2007, Flexible random-effects models using Bayesian semi-parametric models: applications to institutional comparisons, Stat. Med., 26, 2088, 10.1002/sim.2666 Prowse, 2012, Modeling employment dynamics with state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity, J. Bus. Econ. Stat., 30, 411, 10.1080/07350015.2012.697851 Bonner, 2006, An extension of the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model for continuous covariates with application to Microtus pennsylvanicus, Biometrics, 62, 142, 10.1111/j.1541-0420.2005.00399.x Cam, 2004, Dispersal and individual quality in a long lived species, Oikos, 106, 386, 10.1111/j.0030-1299.2003.13097.x Chih-Wei, 2008, A credit risk model with dynamic frailties for default intensity estimation, Asia Pac. Manage., 13, 557