A wetness index derived from tree-rings in the Mt. Yishan area of China since 1755 AD and its agricultural implications

Science China Press., Co. Ltd. - Tập 59 - Trang 3449-3456 - 2014
Ying Lei1,2, Yu Liu1,2, Huiming Song1,3, Bo Sun4
1The State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an, China
2Department of Environmental Science and Technology, School of Human Settlements and Civil Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, China
3University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
4Department of Resources, Environment, and Urban Sciences, Xianyang Normal University, Xianyang, China

Tóm tắt

Dendroclimatological techniques were employed to investigate the relationship between Chinese Pinus (Pinus tabulaeformis Carr.) growth and climatic variability in the Mt. Yishan region of Shandong Province, China, over the past 253 years. Using regression analysis, the wetness index (WI) was reconstructed for the Mt. Yishan area for the period 1755–2007 AD based on tree-ring widths; predictor variables accounted for 40 % of the variance. The reconstructed time-series displayed an increasing trend after the late 1960s. Both the estimated and the observed WI for May–August were better correlated with precipitation than temperature during the period 1958–2007 AD, indicating that the contribution of precipitation to the WI was larger than temperature in the study area. The reconstructed WI was compared with the dryness/wetness index of China and land areas that were affected by droughts and floods using the agricultural statistics for Shandong Province. In addition, the WI time-series corresponded well with the peanut yield in Shandong Province at high frequency, which may be reasonable in the context of agriculture in Shandong. The 3-, 5- to 6- and 9- to 10-year periodicities detected in the time-series suggested that the reconstructed WI in the Mt. Yishan area may be related to large-scale climate variations.

Tài liệu tham khảo

Briffa KR, Shishov VV, Melvin TM et al (2008) Trends in recent temperature and radial tree growth spanning 2000 years across northwest Eurasia. Philos T R Soc B 363:2271–2284 Cook ER, Anchukaitis KJ, Buckley BM et al (2010) Asian Monsoon failure and megadrought during the last millennium. Science 328:486–489 Esper J, Cook ER, Schweingruber FH (2002) Low-frequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability. Science 295:2250–2253 Mann ME, Zhang ZH, Rutherford S et al (2009) Global signatures and dynamical origins of the little ice age and Medieval Climate anomaly. Science 326:1256–1260 Moberg A, Sonechkin DM, Holmgren K et al (2005) Highly variable northern hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data. Nature 433:613–617 Osborn TJ, Briffa KR (2006) The spatial extent of 20th-century warmth in the context of the past 1200 years. Science 312:697 Gou XH, Chen FH, Yang MX et al (2008) Asymmetric variability between maximum and minimum temperatures in northeastern Tibetan Plateau: evidence from tree rings. Sci China Ser D Earth Sci 51:41–55 Liang EY, Shao XM, Qin NS (2008) Tree-ring based summer temperature reconstruction for the source region of the Yangtze river on the Tibetan Plateau. Glob Planet Change 61:313–320 Liu Y, Cai QF, Song HM et al (2011) Amplitudes, rates, periodicities and causes of temperature variations in the past 2485 years and future trends over the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau. Chin Sci Bull 56:2986–2994 Liu Y, An ZS, Linderholm HW et al (2009) Annual temperatures during the last 2485 years in the mid-eastern Tibetan Plateau inferred from tree rings. Sci China Ser D Earth Sci 52:348–359 Cai QF, Liu Y, Song HM et al (2008) Tree-ring-based reconstruction of the April to September mean temperature since 1826 AD for north-central Shaanxi Province, China. Sci China Ser D Earth Sci 51:1099–1106 Liu Y, Liu N, Song HM et al (2009) Reconstructed mean air temperature from January to July at the divide sampling site in the mid-Qinling mountains with tree-ring widths. Adv Clim Change Res 5:260–265 (in Chinese) Liu Y, Linderholm HW, Song HM et al (2009) Temperature variations recorded in pinus tabulaeformis tree rings from the southern and northern slopes of the central Qinling mountains, central China. Boreas 38:285–291 Liu Y, Sun B, Song HM et al (2013) Tree-ring-based precipitation reconstruction for Mt. Xinglong, China, since AD 1679. Quat Int 283:46–54 Liu Y, Lei Y, Sun B et al (2013) Annual precipitation in liancheng, china, since 1777 AD derived from tree rings of Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis carr.). Int J Biometeorol. doi:10.1007/s00484-012-0618-7 Liu Y, Tian H, Song HM et al (2010) Tree ring precipitation reconstruction in the Chifeng-Weichang region, China, and east Asian summer Monsoon variation since AD 1777. J Geophys Res-Atmos. doi:10.1029/2009JD012330 Liu Y, Sun JY, Song HM et al (2010) Tree-ring hydrologic reconstructions for the Heihe river watershed, western China since AD 1430. Water Res 44:2781–2792 Liu Y, Cai QF, Shi JF et al (2005) Seasonal precipitation in the south-central Helan mountain region, China, reconstructed from tree-ring width for the past 224 years. Can J Forest Res 35:2403–2412 Shao XM, Huang L, Liu HB et al (2005) Reconstruction of precipitation variation from tree rings in recent 1000 years in Delingha, Qinghai. Sci China Ser D Earth Sci 48:939–949 Duan JP, Zhang QB, Lv LX (2013) Increased variability in cold-season temperature since the 1930s in subtropical China. J Clim 26:4749–4757 Zheng YH, Zhang Y, Shao XM et al (2012) Temperature variability inferred from tree-ring widths in the Dabie mountains of subtropical central China. Trees 26:1887–1894 Shi JF, Cook ER, Lu HY et al (2010) Tree-ring based winter temperature reconstruction for the lower reaches of the Yangtze river in southeast China. Clim Res 41:169–175 Qian JL, Lv J, Tu QP et al (2002) Reconstruction of the climate in the Tianmu mountain area, Zhejiang Province, in the last 160 years by δ 13C sequence of tree ring α-cellulose. Sci China Ser D Earth Sci 45:409–419 Liu Y, Lei Y, Song HM et al (2010) The annual mean lowest temperature reconstruction based on Pinus bungeanas ring width in the Yulin region, Shandong, China since AD 1616. J Earth Environ 1:28–35 (in Chinese) Shen CS, Chen JM, Zhang ZH et al (1998) Utilizing tree ring chronologies to reconstruct 200 years moisture index in Yishan, Shandong Province. Geogr Res 17:150–156 (in Chinese) Stokes MA, Smiley TL (1996) An introduction to tree-ring dating. The University of Arizona Press, Tucson Holmes RL (1983) Computer-assisted quality control in tree-ring dating and measurement. Tree-Ring Bull 43:69–78 Cook ER, Kairiukstis LA (1990) Methods of dendrochronology: applications in the environmental sciences. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht Briffa KR, Jones PD (1990) Basic chronology statistics and assessment. In: Cook ER, Kairiukstis LA (eds) Methods of dendrochronology: applications in the environmental sciences. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp 137–152 Wigley TML, Briffa KR, Jones PD (1984) On the average value of correlated time series, with application in dendroclimatology and hydrometeorology. J Clim Appl Meteorol 23:201–213 Academy of Meteorological Science (1981) Yearly charts of dryness/wetness in China for the last 500-year period. China Cartographic Publishing House, Beijing, pp 321–332 (in Chinese) Zhang DE, Liu CZ (1993) The sequel of “yearly charts of dryness/wetness in China for the last 500-year period (1980–1992 AD)”. Meteorol Mon 19:41–45 (in Chinese) Zhang DE, Li XQ, Liang YY (2003) The sequel of “yearly charts of dryness/wetness in China for the last 500-year period (1993–2000 AD)”. J Appl Meteor Sci 14:379–388 (in Chinese) Cook ER, Briffa KR, Jones PD (1994) Spatial regression methods in dendroclimatology–a review and comparison of 2 techniques. Int J Climatol 14:379–402 Cook ER, Meko DM, Stahle DW et al (1999) Drought reconstructions for the continental United States. J Clim 12:1145–1162 Durbin J, Watson GS (1951) Testing for serial correlation in least squares regression.II. Biometrika 38:159–179 Bueh C (2003) Simulation of the future change of East Asian monsoon climate using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios. Chin Sci Bull 48:1024–1030 Gou XH, Chen FH, Cook ER et al (2007) Streamflow variations of the yellow river over the past 593 years in western China reconstructed from tree rings. Water Resour Res. doi:10.1029/2006WR005705 Liang EY, Liu XH, Yuan YJ et al (2006) The 1920s drought recorded by tree rings and historical documents in the semi-arid and arid areas of northern China. Clim Change 79:403–432 Liang EY, Shao XM, Kong ZC et al (2003) The extreme drought in the 1920s and its effect on tree growth deduced from tree ring analysis: a case study in north China. Ann for Sci 60:145–152 Liu Y, Sun JY, Yang YK et al (2007) Tree-ring-derived precipitation records from inner Mongolia, China, since A.D. 1627. Tree-Ring Res 63:3–14 Park WK, Jeong WK, Liu Y et al (2001) Reconstruction of April–August precipitation in Mt. Sorak region from tree rings. Korea J Quat Res 1:47–52 Jacoby GC, Pederson N, D’Arrigo RD (2003) Temperature and precipitation in Mongolia based on dendroclimatic investigations. Chin Sci Bull 48:1474–1479 Pederson N, Jacoby GC, D’Arrigo RD et al (2001) Hydrometeorological reconstructions for northeastern Mongolia derived from tree rings: 1651–1995. J Clim 14:872–881 Sun AQ, Wan SY, Liu FZ et al (2010) Effects of drought stress on photosynthetic characteristics and yield of different peanut varieties. Shandong Agric Sci 10:32–38 (in Chinese) Yang XK, Chai SS, Li YH et al (2012) Effects of drought stress at different growth stages on physiological characteristics of root and pod yield in peanut. J Peanut Sci 41:20–23 (in Chinese) Mann ME, Lees JM (1996) Robust estimation of background noise and signal detection in climatic time series. Clim Change 33:409–445 Qian WH, Zhu YF, Ye Q (1998) Annual and inter-annual sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial of Pacific Ocean. Chin Sci Bull 43:1098–1102 (in Chinese) D’Arrigo R, Wilson R, Palmer J et al (2006) Monsoon drought over java, Indonesia, during the past two centuries. Geophys Res Lett 33:L04709 Nagovitsyn YA (2001) Solar activity during the last two millennia: solar patrol in ancient and medieval China. Geomagn Aeron 41:680–688 Rigozo NR, Nordemann DJR, Echer E et al (2004) Search for solar periodicities in tree-ring widths from Concordia (S.C., Brazil). Pure Appl Geophys 161:221–233