A Budyko-based framework for quantifying the impacts of aridity index and other factors on annual runoff

Journal of Hydrology - Tập 579 - Trang 124224 - 2019
Xu Zhang1, Qianjin Dong1,2, Lei Cheng1,2, Jun Xia1,2,3
1State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
2Hubei Provincial Key Lab of Water System Science for Sponge City Construction, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
3Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100864, China

Tài liệu tham khảo

Aghakouchak, 2013, Extremes in a changing climate, Trends Antarct. Terrestrial Limnetic Ecosyst., 65, 954 Ahn, 2014, Quantifying the relative impact of climate and human activities on streamflow, J. Hydrol., 515, 257, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.04.062 Alfieri, 2015, Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2247, 10.5194/hess-19-2247-2015 Armal, 2018, Trends in extreme rainfall frequency in the contiguous united states: attribution to climate change and climate variability modes, J Clim., 31, 369, 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0106.1 Asokan, 2016, Climate model performance and change projection for freshwater fluxes: comparison for irrigated areas in Central and South Asia, J. Hydrol. Regional Stud., 5, 48, 10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.11.017 Bao, 2012, Attribution for decreasing streamflow of the Haihe River basin, northern China: climate variability or human activities?, J. Hydrol., 460, 117, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.06.054 Berghuijs, 2016, Correspondence: space-time asymmetry undermines water yield assessment, Nat. Commun., 7, 11603, 10.1038/ncomms11603 Berghuijs, 2014, A precipitation shift from snow towards rain leads to a decrease in streamflow, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 583, 10.1038/nclimate2246 Berghuijs, 2017, A global assessment of runoff sensitivity to changes in precipitation, potential evaporation, and other factors, Water Resour. Res., 53, 8475, 10.1002/2017WR021593 Biermann, 2012, Navigating the anthropocene: improving earth system governance, Science, 335, 1306, 10.1126/science.1217255 Bracken, 2018, A bayesian hierarchical approach to multivariate nonstationary hydrologic frequency analysis, Water Resour. Res., 54, 377, 10.1002/2017WR020403 Carmona, 2014, Regional patterns of interannual variability of catchment water balances across the continental U.S.: a Budyko framework, Water Resour. Res., 50, 9177, 10.1002/2014WR016013 Cavalcante, 2019, Opposite effects of climate and land use changes on the annual water balance in the amazon arc of deforestation, Water Resour. Res., 10.1029/2019WR025083 Chen, 2013, Modeling interannual variability of seasonal evaporation and storage change based on the extended Budyko framework, Water Resour. Res., 49, 6067, 10.1002/wrcr.20493 Cunderlik, 2007, Local non-stationary flood-duration-frequency modelling, Can. Water Resour. J./Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques, 32, 43, 10.4296/cwrj3201043 Dan, 2013, Vegetation control on water and energy balance within the Budyko framework, Water Resour. Res., 49, 6550 Donohue, 2011, Assessing the differences in sensitivities of runoff to changes in climatic conditions across a large basin, J. Hydrol., 406, 234, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.07.003 Duan, 2006, Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX): an overview of science strategy and major results from the second and third workshops, J. Hydrol., 320, 3, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.07.031 Farnsworth, R.K., Thompson, E.S., 1983. Mean monthly, seasonal, and annual pan evaporation for the US. US Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NationalWeather Service. Field, 2010, Stomatal responses to increased CO2 - implications from the plant to the global scale, Plant Cell Environ., 18, 1214, 10.1111/j.1365-3040.1995.tb00630.x Fu, 1981, On the calculation of the evaporation from land surface, Chin. J. Atmos. Sci., 5, 23 Gao, 2016, Determining the hydrological responses to climate variability and land use/cover change in the Loess Plateau with the Budyko framework, Sci. Total Environ., 557–558, 331, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.03.019 Gong, 2002, Shift in the summer rainfall over the Yangtze River valley in the late 1970s, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 78, 10.1029/2001GL014523 Greve, 2015, Introducing a probabilistic Budyko framework, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 2261, 10.1002/2015GL063449 Greve, 2017, Simulated changes in aridity from the last glacial maximum to 4xCO2, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 10.1088/1748-9326/aa89a3 Gu, 2017, Nonstationarity-based evaluation of flood risk in the Pearl River basin: changing patterns, causes and implications, Hydrol. Sci. J., 62, 246, 10.1080/02626667.2016.1183774 Gudmundsson, 2016, The sensitivity of water availability to changes in the aridity index and other factors—a probabilistic analysis in the Budyko space, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 6985, 10.1002/2016GL069763 Haasnoot, 2013, Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: a method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world, Global Environ. Change, 23, 485, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.12.006 Hao, 2008, Impacts of climate change and human activities on the surface runoff in the Tarim river basin over the last fifty years, Water Resour. Manage., 22, 1159, 10.1007/s11269-007-9218-4 Istanbulluoglu, 2012, Interpretation of hydrologic trends from a water balance perspective: the role of groundwater storage in the Budyko hypothesis, Water Resour. Res., 48, 10.1029/2010WR010100 Jiang, 2015, Separating the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff using the Budyko-type equations with time-varying parameters, J. Hydrol., 522, 326, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.12.060 Kepeng, 2013, Complex adaptive system on water resources allocation system, J. Appl. Sci., 13, 1530, 10.3923/jas.2013.1530.1536 Kong, 2016, Impact assessment of climate change and human activities on net runoff in the Yellow River Basin from 1951 to 2012, Ecol. Eng., 91, 566, 10.1016/j.ecoleng.2016.02.023 Krakauer, 2008, Mapping and attribution of change in streamflow in the coterminous United States, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 1111, 10.5194/hess-12-1111-2008 Lavenne, 2018, Impact of climate seasonality on catchment yield: a parameterization for commonly-used water balance formulas, J. Hydrol., 558, 266, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.01.009 Lewis, 2015, Defining the anthropocene, Nature, 519, 171, 10.1038/nature14258 Li, 2018, Nonstationary flood frequency analysis for annual flood peak and volume series in both univariate and bivariate domain, Water Resour. Manage., 32, 4239, 10.1007/s11269-018-2041-2 Li, 2019, Response of streamflow to environmental changes: a Budyko-type analysis based on 144 river basins over China, Sci. Total Environ., 664, 824, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.011 Lima, 2015, A climate informed model for nonstationary flood risk prediction: application to Negro River at Manaus, Amazonia, J. Hydrol., 522, 594, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.01.009 Liu, 2010, Impacts of climate change and human activities on surface runoff in the Dongjiang River basin of China, Hydrol. Process., 24, 1487, 10.1002/hyp.7609 Liu, 2017, A new drought index that considers the joint effects of climate and land surface change, Water Resour. Res., 53, 3262, 10.1002/2016WR020178 Luke, 2017, Predicting nonstationary flood frequencies: EVIDENCE supports an updated stationarity thesis in the United States, Water Resour. Res., 53, 5469, 10.1002/2016WR019676 Ma, 2010, Impact of climate variability and human activity on streamflow decrease in the Miyun Reservoir catchment, J. Hydrol., 389, 317, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.06.010 Marshall, 2019, Warming alters hydrologic heterogeneity: simulated climate sensitivity of hydrology-based microrefugia in the snow-to-rain transition zone, Water Resour. Res., 10.1029/2018WR023063 Mccabe, 2002, A step increase in streamflow in the conterminous United States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 10.1029/2002GL015999 Milly, 2005, Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate, Nature, 438, 347, 10.1038/nature04312 Milly, 2017, A hydrologic drying bias in water-resource impact analyses of anthropogenic climate change, Jawra J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 53, 822, 10.1111/1752-1688.12538 Milly, 2008, Stationarity is dead, Science, 319, 573, 10.1126/science.1151915 Min, 2011, Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes, Nature, 470, 378, 10.1038/nature09763 Mwangi, 2016, Relative contribution of land use change and climate variability on discharge of upper Mara River, Kenya, J. Hydrol. Regional Stud., 5, 244, 10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.12.059 Nash, 1970, River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I — a discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282, 10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6 Patterson, 2013, Climate and direct human contributions to changes in mean annual streamflow in the South Atlantic, USA, Water Resour. Res., 49, 7278, 10.1002/2013WR014618 Ren, 2019, A nature-based reservoir optimization model for resolving the conflict in human water demand and riverine ecosystem protection, J. Clean. Prod., 231, 406, 10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.05.221 Renard, 2011, Toward a reliable decomposition of predictive uncertainty in hydrological modeling: characterizing rainfall errors using conditional simulation, Water Resour. Res., 47, 11516, 10.1029/2011WR010643 Roderick, 2011, A simple framework for relating variations in runoff to variations in climatic conditions and catchment properties, Water Resour. Res., 47, 667, 10.1029/2010WR009826 Scheff, 2018, Drought indices, drought impacts, CO2, and warming: a historical and geologic perspective, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 4, 202, 10.1007/s40641-018-0094-1 Scheff, 2015, Terrestrial aridity and its response to greenhouse warming across CMIP5 climate models, J. Clim., 28, 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00480.1 Shen, 2014, Projection of future world water resources under SRES scenarios: an integrated assessment, Int. Assoc. Sci. Hydrol. Bull., 59, 1775, 10.1080/02626667.2013.862338 Small, 2006, Trends in precipitation and streamflow in the eastern U.S.: paradox or perception?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, 395, 10.1029/2005GL024995 Tabari, 2013, Temporal pattern of aridity index in Iran with considering precipitation and evapotranspiration trends, Int. J. Climatol., 33, 396, 10.1002/joc.3432 Um, 2017, Modeling nonstationary extreme value distributions with nonlinear functions: an application using multiple precipitation projections for U.S. cities, J. Hydrol., 552, 396, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.07.007 Villarini, 2009, Flood frequency analysis for nonstationary annual peak records in an urban drainage basin, Adv. Water Resour., 32, 1255, 10.1016/j.advwatres.2009.05.003 Wang, 2011, Quantifying the relative contribution of the climate and direct human impacts on mean annual streamflow in the contiguous United States, Water Resour. Res., 47, 411, 10.1029/2010WR010283 Wen, 2015, Relative effects of human activities and climate change on the river runoff in an arid basin in northwest China, Hydrol. Process., 28, 4854 Wu, 2017, Contribution analysis of the long-term changes in seasonal runoff on the Loess Plateau, China, using eight Budyko-based methods, J. Hydrol., 545, 263, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.12.050 Wu, 2017, Detecting the quantitative hydrological response to changes in climate and human activities, Sci. Total Environ., 586, 328, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.02.010 Xu, 2014, Attribution analysis based on the Budyko hypothesis for detecting the dominant cause of runoff decline in Haihe basin, J. Hydrol., 510, 530, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.12.052 Yang, 2012, Seasonality of precipitation and potential evaporation and its impact on catchment water-energy balance, J. Hydroelect. Eng., 31 Yang, 2019, Hydrologic implications of vegetation response to elevated CO2 in climate projections, Nat. Clim. Change, 9, 44, 10.1038/s41558-018-0361-0 Yang, 2009, Impact of vegetation coverage on regional water balance in the nonhumid regions of China, Water Resour. Res., 45, 10.1029/2008WR006948 Yin, 2018, Large increase in global storm runoff extremes driven by climate and anthropogenic changes, Nat. Commun., 9, 4389, 10.1038/s41467-018-06765-2 Zeff, 2016, Cooperative drought adaptation: integrating infrastructure development, conservation, and water transfers into adaptive policy pathways, Water Resour. Res., 52, 7327, 10.1002/2016WR018771 Zhang, 2015, Effects of snow ratio on annual runoff within the Budyko framework, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1977, 10.5194/hess-19-1977-2015 Zhang, 2019, A hierarchical Bayesian model for decomposing the impacts of human activities and climate change on water resources in China, Sci. Total Environ., 665, 836, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.189 Zhang, 2011, Analysis of impacts of climate variability and human activity on streamflow for a river basin in northeast China, J. Hydrol., 410, 239 Zhang, 2004, A rational function approach for estimating mean annual evapotranspiration, Water Resour. Res., 40, 1, 10.1029/2003WR002710 Zhao, 2014, Quantifying the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow in the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin, China, J. Hydrol., 519, 387, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.07.014