Tracking National and Regional Spatial‐Temporal Mortality Risk Associated with NO<sub>2</sub> Concentrations in Canada: A Bayesian Hierarchical Two‐Level Model

Risk Analysis - Tập 32 Số 3 - Trang 513-530 - 2012
Hwashin Hyun Shin1,2, Dave Stieb1,2, Rick Burnett1,2, Glen Takahara3, Barry Jessiman4
1Population Studies Division, Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada.
2R. Samuel McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment, Institute of Population Health, University of Ottawa.
3Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Queen's University.
4Air Health Science Division, Water, Air and Climate Change Bureau, Health Canada.

Tóm tắt

The association between daily variations in urban air quality and mortality has been well documented using time series statistical methods. This approach assumes a constant association over time. We develop a space‐time dynamic model that relaxes this assumption, thus more directly examining the hypothesis that improvements in air quality translate into improvements in public health. We postulate a Bayesian hierarchical two‐level model to estimate annual mortality risks at regional and national levels and to track both risk and heterogeneity of risk within and between regions over time. We illustrate our methods using daily nitrogen dioxide concentrations (NO2) and nonaccidental mortality data collected for 1984–2004 in 24 Canadian cities. Estimates of risk and heterogeneity are compared by cause of mortality (cardio‐pulmonary [CP] versus non‐CP) and season, respectively. Over the entire period, the NO2 risk for CP mortality was slightly lower but with a narrower credible interval than that for non‐CP mortality, mainly due to an unusually low risk for a single year (1998). Warm season NO2 risk was higher than cold season risk for both CP and non‐CP mortality. For 21 years overall there were no significant differences detected among the four regional NO2 risks. We found overall that there was no strong evidence for time trends in NO2 risk at national or regional levels. However, an increasing linear time trend in the annual between‐region heterogeneities was detected, which suggests the differences in risk among the four regions are getting larger, and further studies are necessary to understand the increasing heterogeneity.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

10.1093/aje/154.9.817

10.1002/env.721

10.1111/1467-985X.00170

10.1198/016214502753479266

10.1093/aje/kwi075

10.3200/AEOH.59.5.228-236

10.1080/15287390590936157

10.1093/aje/kwf062

10.1289/ehp.11194

10.1007/s11869-009-0029-z

West BT, 2007, Linear Mixed Models

Statistics Canada.Appendix A Glossary Census division. Available at:http://geodepot.statcan.gc.ca/2006/180506051805140305/06180505162102/92‐‐149‐072305/2006001/01161605140409030519‐eng.htm#a1 Accessed on October 27 2010.

Statistics Canada.Vital Statistics—Deaths Database 2004. Available at:http://www.statcan.gc.ca/cgi‐bin/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&SurvId=3233&SurvVer=0&InstaId=15306&InstaVer=7&SDDS=3233&lang=en&db=IMDB&adm=8&dis=2 Accessed on October 27 2010.

World Health Organization, 2003, International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems

Environment Canada.National Air Pollution Surveillance Network (NAPS). Available at:http://www.ec.gc.ca/natchem/default.asp?lang=en&n=EE0E2169‐‐1 Accessed on October 27 2010.

Environmental Technology Centre Analysis and Air Quality Division.National Air Pollution Surveillance Network: Quality Assurance and Quality Control Guidelines.2004. Available at:http://www.etc‐cte.ec.gc.ca/publications/naps/NAPSQAQC.pdf Accessed on October 27 2010.

Environment Canada.Nitrogen Measurements. Available at:http://www.ec.gc.ca/rs‐mn/default.asp?lang=en&n=72C88CD8‐‐1 Accessed on October 27 2010.

National Climate Data and Information Archive.Environment Canada.http://climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/Welcome_e.html. Accessed on October 27 2010.

Hastie TJ, 1990, Generalized Additive Models

10.2307/1907187

10.1093/aje/kwg087

Johansen H, 2005, Diseases of the circulatory system—Hospitalization and mortality, Health Report, 17, 49

10.1038/sj.jes.7500626

10.1161/01.CIR.0000128587.30041.C8

MillerBC ArmstrongB.Quantification of the impact of air pollution on chronic cause‐specific mortality. Edinburgh: Institute of Occupational Medicine Research Report TM/01/08 December 2001.

Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC), 2007, Life and Breath: Respiratory Disease in Canada, 39

10.1161/01.CIR.0000108927.80044.7F

10.1186/1476-069X-5-1

World Health Organization, 2005, Particulate Matter, Ozone, Nitrogen Dioxide and Sulphur Dioxide

10.1038/sj.jea.7500244

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Risk Analysis

Tập 32 Số 3

513-530

Thông tin tác giả