Juking the Stats? Authoritarian Information Problems in China

British Journal of Political Science - Tập 46 Số 1 - Trang 11-29 - 2016
Jeremy Wallace1
1Department of Political Science, Ohio State University

Tóm tắt

Economic statistics inform citizens of general conditions, while central leaders use them to evaluate local officials. Are economic data systematically manipulated? After establishing discrepancies in economic data series cross-nationally, this article examines Chinese sub-national growth data. It leverages variation in the likelihood of manipulation over two dimensions, arguing that politically sensitivedataare more likely to be manipulated at politically sensitivetimes. Gross domestic product (GDP) releases generate headlines, while highly correlated electricity production and consumption data are relatively unnoticed. In Chinese provinces, the difference between GDP and electricity growth increases in years with leadership turnover, which is consistent with juking the stats for political reasons. The analysis points to the political role of information and the limits of non-electoral accountability mechanisms in authoritarian regimes.

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