A penny for your thoughts: a survey of methods for eliciting beliefs

Experimental Economics - Tập 18 - Trang 457-490 - 2014
Karl H. Schlag1, James Tremewan1, Joël J. van der Weele2,3,4
1University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
2Department of Economics, Center for Experimental Economics and political Decision making (CREED), University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
3Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
4Center for Financial Studies, Frankfurt, Germany

Tóm tắt

Incentivized methods for eliciting subjective probabilities in economic experiments present the subject with risky choices that encourage truthful reporting. We discuss the most prominent elicitation methods and their underlying assumptions, provide theoretical comparisons and give a new justification for the quadratic scoring rule. On the empirical side, we survey the performance of these elicitation methods in actual experiments, considering also practical issues of implementation such as order effects, hedging, and different ways of presenting probabilities and payment schemes to experimental subjects. We end with a discussion of the trade-offs involved in using incentives for belief elicitation and some guidelines for implementation.

Tài liệu tham khảo

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