Trends in China's anthropogenic emissions since 2010 as the consequence of clean air actions

Copernicus GmbH - Tập 18 Số 19 - Trang 14095-14111
Bo Zheng1,2, Dan Tong3, Meng Li3, Fei Liu1, Chaopeng Hong3, Guannan Geng3, Haiyan Li1, Xin Li3, Liqun Peng1, Ji Qi1, Liu Yan3, Yuxuan Zhang3, Hongyan Zhao3, Yixuan Zheng3, Kebin He3,1, Qiang Zhang3
1State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, People’s Republic of China
2present address: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, UMR8212, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
3Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

Tóm tắt

Abstract. To tackle the problem of severe air pollution, China has implemented active clean air policies in recent years. As a consequence, the emissions of major air pollutants have decreased and the air quality has substantially improved. Here, we quantified China's anthropogenic emission trends from 2010 to 2017 and identified the major driving forces of these trends by using a combination of bottom-up emission inventory and index decomposition analysis (IDA) approaches. The relative change rates of China's anthropogenic emissions during 2010–2017 are estimated as follows: −62 % for SO2, −17 % for NOx, +11 % for nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), +1 % for NH3, −27 % for CO, −38 % for PM10, −35 % for PM2.5, −27 % for BC, −35 % for OC, and +16 % for CO2. The IDA results suggest that emission control measures are the main drivers of this reduction, in which the pollution controls on power plants and industries are the most effective mitigation measures. The emission reduction rates markedly accelerated after the year 2013, confirming the effectiveness of China's Clean Air Action that was implemented since 2013. We estimated that during 2013–2017, China's anthropogenic emissions decreased by 59 % for SO2, 21 % for NOx, 23 % for CO, 36 % for PM10, 33 % for PM2.5, 28 % for BC, and 32 % for OC. NMVOC emissions increased and NH3 emissions remained stable during 2010–2017, representing the absence of effective mitigation measures for NMVOCs and NH3 in current policies. The relative contributions of different sectors to emissions have significantly changed after several years' implementation of clean air policies, indicating that it is paramount to introduce new policies to enable further emission reductions in the future.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Boersma, K. F., Eskes, H. J., Dirksen, R. J., van der A, R. J., Veefkind, J. P., Stammes, P., Huijnen, V., Kleipool, Q. L., Sneep, M., Claas, J., Leitão, J., Richter, A., Zhou, Y., and Brunner, D.: An improved tropospheric NO2 column retrieval algorithm for the Ozone Monitoring Instrument, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 4, 1905–1928, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-4-1905-2011, 2011.

China: Air quality targets set by the Action Plan have been fully realized, http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2018-02/01/content_5262720.htm, last access: 30 September 2018.

China State Council: Action Plan on Prevention and Control of Air Pollution, China State Council, Beijing, China, http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2013-09/12/content_2486773.htm (last access: 30 September 2018), 2013.

China State Council: The 13th Five-Year plan on energy saving and emissions reduction, China State Council, Beijing, China, http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2017-01/05/content_5156789.htm (last access: 30 September 2018), 2016.

de Foy, B., Lu, Z., and Streets, D. G.: Satellite NO2 retrievals suggest China has exceeded its NOx reduction goals from the twelfth Five-Year Plan, Scientific Reports, 6, 35912, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep35912, 2016.

Dietzenbacher, E. and Los, B.: Structural Decomposition Techniques: Sense and Sensitivity, Econ. Syst. Res., 10, 307–324, https://doi.org/10.1080/09535319800000023, 1998.

Fontes, T., Li, P., Barros, N., and Zhao, P.: Trends of PM2.5 concentrations in China: A long term approach, J. Environ. Manage., 196, 719–732, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.03.074, 2017.

Hoekstra, R. and van den Bergh, J. C. J. M.: Comparing structural decomposition analysis and index, Energ. Econ., 25, 39–64, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-9883(02)00059-2, 2003.

Hoesly, R. M., Smith, S. J., Feng, L., Klimont, Z., Janssens-Maenhout, G., Pitkanen, T., Seibert, J. J., Vu, L., Andres, R. J., Bolt, R. M., Bond, T. C., Dawidowski, L., Kholod, N., Kurokawa, J.-I., Li, M., Liu, L., Lu, Z., Moura, M. C. P., O'Rourke, P. R., and Zhang, Q.: Historical (1750–2014) anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS), Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 369–408, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-369-2018, 2018.

Huo, H., Yao, Z., He, K., and Yu, X.: Fuel consumption rates of passenger cars in China: Labels versus real-world, Energ. Policy, 39, 7130–7135, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.08.031, 2011.

Jiang, Z., Worden, J. R., Worden, H., Deeter, M., Jones, D. B. A., Arellano, A. F., and Henze, D. K.: A 15-year record of CO emissions constrained by MOPITT CO observations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 4565–4583, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4565-2017, 2017.

Koukouli, M. E., Theys, N., Ding, J., Zyrichidou, I., Mijling, B., Balis, D., and van der A, R. J.: Updated SO1112 emission estimates over China using OMI/Aura observations, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 1817–1832, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1817-2018, 2018.

Krotkov, N. A., Carn, S. A., Krueger, A. J., Bhartia, P. K., and Kai, Y.: Band residual difference algorithm for retrieval of SO2 from the aura ozone monitoring instrument (OMI), IEEE T. Geosci. Remote, 44, 1259–1266, https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2005.861932, 2006.

Krotkov, A. N., Li, C., and Leonard, P.: OMI/Aura Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) Total Column L3 1 day Best Pixel in 0.25 degree × 0.25  degree V3, Greenbelt, MD, USA, Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), https://doi.org/10.5067/Aura/OMI/DATA3008 (last access: 30 September 2018), 2015.

Krotkov, N. A., McLinden, C. A., Li, C., Lamsal, L. N., Celarier, E. A., Marchenko, S. V., Swartz, W. H., Bucsela, E. J., Joiner, J., Duncan, B. N., Boersma, K. F., Veefkind, J. P., Levelt, P. F., Fioletov, V. E., Dickerson, R. R., He, H., Lu, Z., and Streets, D. G.: Aura OMI observations of regional SO2 and NO2 pollution changes from 2005 to 2015, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 4605—4629, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4605-2016, 2016.

Lamsal, L. N., Martin, R. V., van Donkelaar, A., Celarier, E. A., Bucsela, E. J., Boersma, K. F., Dirksen, R., Luo, C., and Wang, Y.: Indirect validation of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide retrieved from the OMI satellite instrument: Insight into the seasonal variation of nitrogen oxides at northern midlatitudes, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D05302, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013351, 2010.

Lamsal, L. N., Martin, R. V., Padmanabhan, A., van Donkelaar, A., Zhang, Q., Sioris, C. E., Chance, K., Kurosu, T. P., and Newchurch, M. J.: Application of satellite observations for timely updates to global anthropogenic NOx emission inventories, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L05810, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046476, 2011.

Lei, Y., Zhang, Q., He, K. B., and Streets, D. G.: Primary anthropogenic aerosol emission trends for China, 1990–2005, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 931–954, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-931-2011, 2011.

Li, C., McLinden, C., Fioletov, V., Krotkov, N., Carn, S., Joiner, J., Streets, D., He, H., Ren, X., Li, Z., and Dickerson, R. R.: India Is Overtaking China as the World's Largest Emitter of Anthropogenic Sulfur Dioxide, Scientific Reports, 7, 14304, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-14639-8, 2017.

Li, M., Zhang, Q., Streets, D. G., He, K. B., Cheng, Y. F., Emmons, L. K., Huo, H., Kang, S. C., Lu, Z., Shao, M., Su, H., Yu, X., and Zhang, Y.: Mapping Asian anthropogenic emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds to multiple chemical mechanisms, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5617–5638, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5617-2014, 2014.

Li, M., Zhang, Q., Kurokawa, J.-I., Woo, J.-H., He, K., Lu, Z., Ohara, T., Song, Y., Streets, D. G., Carmichael, G. R., Cheng, Y., Hong, C., Huo, H., Jiang, X., Kang, S., Liu, F., Su, H., and Zheng, B.: MIX: a mosaic Asian anthropogenic emission inventory under the international collaboration framework of the MICS-Asia and HTAP, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 935–963, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-935-2017, 2017a.

Li, M., Liu, H., Geng, G., Hong, C., Liu, F., Song, Y., Tong, D., Zheng, B., Cui, H., Man, H., Zhang, Q., and He, K.: Anthropogenic emission inventories in China: a review, Natl. Sci. Rev., 4, 834–866, https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwx150, 2017b.

Liang, F., Xiao, Q., Wang, Y., Lyapustin, A., Li, G., Gu, D., Pan, X., and Liu, Y.: MAIAC-based long-term spatiotemporal trends of PM2.5 in Beijing, China, Sci. Total Environ., 616–617, 1589–1598, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.10.155, 2018.

Lin, C. Q., Liu, G., Lau, A. K. H., Li, Y., Li, C. C., Fung, J. C. H., and Lao, X. Q.: High-resolution satellite remote sensing of provincial PM2.5 trends in China from 2001 to 2015, Atmos. Environ., 180, 110–116, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2018.02.045, 2018.

Lin, J.-T., Liu, M.-Y., Xin, J.-Y., Boersma, K. F., Spurr, R., Martin, R., and Zhang, Q.: Influence of aerosols and surface reflectance on satellite NO2 retrieval: seasonal and spatial characteristics and implications for NOx emission constraints, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11217–11241, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11217-2015, 2015.

Liu, Z., Guan, D., Wei, W., Davis, S. J., Ciais, P., Bai, J., Peng, S., Zhang, Q., Hubacek, K., Marland, G., Andres, R. J., Crawford-Brown, D., Lin, J., Zhao, H., Hong, C., Boden, T. A., Feng, K., Peters, G. P., Xi, F., Liu, J., Li, Y., Zhao, Y., Zeng, N., and He, K.: Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China, Nature, 524, 335–338, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14677, 2015a.

Liu, F., Zhang, Q., Tong, D., Zheng, B., Li, M., Huo, H., and He, K. B.: High-resolution inventory of technologies, activities, and emissions of coal-fired power plants in China from 1990 to 2010, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 13299–13317, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13299-2015, 2015b.

Liu, F., Zhang, Q., van der A, R. J., Zheng, B., Tong, D., Yan, L., Zheng, Y. X., and He, K. B.: Recent reduction in NOx emissions over China: synthesis of satellite observations and emission inventories, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 114002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/114002, 2016.

Lu, Z., Streets, D. G., Zhang, Q., Wang, S., Carmichael, G. R., Cheng, Y. F., Wei, C., Chin, M., Diehl, T., and Tan, Q.: Sulfur dioxide emissions in China and sulfur trends in East Asia since 2000, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 6311–6331, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-6311-2010, 2010.

Lu, Z., Zhang, Q., and Streets, D. G.: Sulfur dioxide and primary carbonaceous aerosol emissions in China and India, 1996–2010, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 9839–9864, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-9839-2011, 2011.

Miyazaki, K., Eskes, H., Sudo, K., Boersma, K. F., Bowman, K., and Kanaya, Y.: Decadal changes in global surface NOx emissions from multi-constituent satellite data assimilation, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 807–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-807-2017, 2017

National Bureau of Statistics: China Energy Statistical Yearbook 2017, China Statistics Press, Beijing, China, 2018a.

National Bureau of Statistics: Statistical Communiqué of the People's Republic of China on the 2017 National Economic and Social Development, http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/201802/t20180228_1585631.html (last access: 30 September 2018), 2018b.

National Bureau of Statistics: China Statistical Yearbook 2017, China Statistics Press, Beijing, China, 2018c.

National Energy Administration: Statistical data of Chinese electric power industry 2017, http://www.nea.gov.cn/2018-01/22/c_136914154.htm (last access: 30 September 2018), 2018.

Qi, J., Zheng, B., Li, M., Yu, F., Chen, C., Liu, F., Zhou, X., Yuan, J., Zhang, Q., and He, K.: A high-resolution air pollutants emission inventory in 2013 for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China, Atmos. Environ., 170, 156–168, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.09.039, 2017.

Shao, P., Tian, H., Sun, Y., Liu, H., Wu, B., Liu, S., Liu, X., Wu, Y., Liang, W., Wang, Y., Gao, J., Xue, Y., Bai, X., Liu, W., Lin, S., and Hu, G.: Characterizing remarkable changes of severe haze events and chemical compositions in multi-size airborne particles (PM1, PM2.5 and PM10) from January 2013 to 2016–2017 winter in Beijing, China, Atmos. Environ., 189, 133–144, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2018.06.038, 2018.

Streets, D. G., Zhang, Q., Wang, L., He, K., Hao, J., Wu, Y., Tang, Y., and Carmichael, G. R.: Revisiting China's CO emissions after the Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) mission: Synthesis of inventories, atmospheric modeling, and observations, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D14306, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007118, 2006.

Uno, I., He, Y., Ohara, T., Yamaji, K., Kurokawa, J.-I., Katayama, M., Wang, Z., Noguchi, K., Hayashida, S., Richter, A., and Burrows, J. P.: Systematic analysis of interannual and seasonal variations of model-simulated tropospheric NO2 in Asia and comparison with GOME-satellite data, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 1671–1681, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-1671-2007, 2007.

Valin, L. C., Russell, A. R., Hudman, R. C., and Cohen, R. C.: Effects of model resolution on the interpretation of satellite NO2 observations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 11647–11655, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-11647-2011, 2011.

van der A, R. J., Mijling, B., Ding, J., Koukouli, M. E., Liu, F., Li, Q., Mao, H., and Theys, N.: Cleaning up the air: effectiveness of air quality policy for SO2 and NOx emissions in China, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1775–1789, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1775-2017, 2017.

Wang, S., Zhang, Q., Martin, R., Philip, S., Liu, F., Li, M., Jiang, X., and He, K.: Satellite measurements oversee China's sulfur dioxide emission reductions from coal-fired power plants, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 114015, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/114015, 2015.

Warner, J. X., Dickerson, R. R., Wei, Z., Strow, L. L., Wang, Y., and Liang, Q.: Increased atmospheric ammonia over the world's major agricultural areas detected from space, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 2875–2884, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072305, 2017.

World Health Organization: WHO Air quality guidelines for particulate matter, ozone, nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide, available at: http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/69477/WHO_SDE_PHE_OEH_06.02_eng.pdf;jsessionid=2316300A203942FCECC2E260E5EB9A14?sequence=1 (last access: 30 September 2018), 2006.

Zhang, J., Reid, J. S., Alfaro-Contreras, R., and Xian, P.: Has China been exporting less particulate air pollution over the past decade?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 2941–2948, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL072617, 2017.

Zhang, Q., Streets, D. G., He, K., Wang, Y., Richter, A., Burrows, J. P., Uno, I., Jang, C. J., Chen, D., Yao, Z., and Lei, Y.: NOx emission trends for China, 1995–2004: The view from the ground and the view from space, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D22306, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008684, 2007.

Zhang, Q., Streets, D. G., Carmichael, G. R., He, K. B., Huo, H., Kannari, A., Klimont, Z., Park, I. S., Reddy, S., Fu, J. S., Chen, D., Duan, L., Lei, Y., Wang, L. T., and Yao, Z. L.: Asian emissions in 2006 for the NASA INTEX-B mission, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 5131–5153, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-5131-2009, 2009.

Zhang, Q., He, K., and Huo, H.: Cleaning China's air, Nature, 484, 161–162, https://doi.org/10.1038/484161a, 2012.

Zhao, B., Jiang, J. H., Gu, Y., Diner, D., Worden, J., Liou, K. N., Su, H., Xing, J., Garay, M., and Huang, L.: Decadal-scale trends in regional aerosol particle properties and their linkage to emission changes, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 054021, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6cb2, 2017.

Zhao, Y., Nielsen, C. P., Lei, Y., McElroy, M. B., and Hao, J.: Quantifying the uncertainties of a bottom-up emission inventory of anthropogenic atmospheric pollutants in China, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 2295–2308, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-2295-2011, 2011.

Zheng, B., Huo, H., Zhang, Q., Yao, Z. L., Wang, X. T., Yang, X. F., Liu, H., and He, K. B.: High-resolution mapping of vehicle emissions in China in 2008, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 9787–9805, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9787-2014, 2014.

Zheng, B., Zhang, Q., Tong, D., Chen, C., Hong, C., Li, M., Geng, G., Lei, Y., Huo, H., and He, K.: Resolution dependence of uncertainties in gridded emission inventories: a case study in Hebei, China, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 921–933, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-921-2017, 2017.

Zheng, B., Chevallier, F., Ciais, P., Yin, Y., Deeter, M., Worden, H., Wang, Y. L., Zhang, Q., and He, K. B.: Rapid decline in carbon monoxide emissions and export from East Asia between years 2005 and 2016, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 044007, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab2b3, 2018.

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Copernicus GmbH

Tập 18 Số 19

14095-14111

Thông tin tác giả