Landslide susceptibility mapping of the Mediterranean coastal zone of Morocco between Oued Laou and El Jebha using artificial neural networks (ANN)
Tóm tắt
The goal of this study was to experiment artificial neural network (ANN) classifier on various available physical factors in the study area to produce a reliable landslide susceptibility map. The mapping of landsides is classically established through the identification and analysis of hillslope instability factors. Even if a variety of approaches use these analyses with geographic information system (GIS) performances to carry out a good result, there is no satisfaction because of the complexity of the landslides encountered in the field. In the present study, landslide susceptibility models were produced by using multilayer perceptron (MLP) ANN in the Mediterranean Rif coastal zone of Morocco. This was established in the following steps: (i) production of landslide inventory map; (ii) production of the hillslope factors, twenty factors composed of geology, geomorphometry, proximity, and thematic data derived from satellite imageries; (iii) extraction of vector model to be used to train ANN, construction of ANN models; (iv) validation and evaluation of results. The results of the prediction models were evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The obtained area under the curve (AUC) values are greater than 0.90, indicating that the models are quite accurate. The visual comparisons between landslide susceptibility maps and the input factor maps show that roads and geology are the most important factors influencing five types of mass movements (complex, slide, flow, and rockfall). The success of this work will be helpful to expand this method to the whole Rif mountains in Morocco.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Ada M, San BT (2018) Comparison of machine-learning techniques for landslide susceptibility mapping using two-level random sampling (2LRS) in Alakir catchment area, Antalya, Turkey. Nat Hazards 90:237–263
Akgun A, Sezer E, Nefeslioglu HA, Gokceoglu C, Pradhan B (2012) An easy-to-use MATLAB program (MamLand) for the assessment of landslide susceptibility using a Mamdani fuzzy algorithm. Comput Geosci 38(1):23–34
Aleotti P, Balzeli P, De Marchi D (1996) Le reti neurali nella valutazione della suscettibilita’ da frana. Geologia tecnica e ambientale 4:37–47
Ayenew T, Barbieri G (2005) Inventory of landslides and susceptibility mapping in the Dessie area, northern Ethiopia. Eng Geol 77:1–15
Begueria S (2006) Validation and evaluation of predictive models in hazard assessment and risk management. Nat Hazards 37:315–329
Beven KJ, Kirkby MJ (1979) A physically based, variable contributing area model of basin hydrology. Hydrol Sci Bull 24:43–69
Cetin M (2015) Evaluation of the sustainable tourism potential of a protected area for landscape planning: a case study of the ancient city of Pompeipolis in Kastamonu. Int J Sust Dev World 22(6):490–495
Cetin M (2016) Sustainability of urban coastal area management: a case study on Cide. J Sustain For 35(7):527–541
Cetin M, Sevik H (2016) Evaluating the recreation potential of Ilgaz Mountain National Park in Turkey. Environ Monit Assess 188(1):52
Cetin M, Sevik H, Canturk U, Cakir C (2018) Evaluation of the recreational potential of Kutahya urban forest. Fresenius Environ Bull 27(5):2629–2634
Chalouan A, Michard A (1990) The Ghomarides nappes, Rif coastal range, Morocco: a Variscan chip in the Alpine belt. Tectonics 9:1565–1583
Combe M, Thauvin J (1971) Ressources en eau du Maroc: domaines du Rif et du Maroc oriental. Service géologique du Maroc.
Corominas J, van Westen C, Frattini P (2014) Recommendations for the quantitative analysis of landslide risk. Bull Eng Geol Environ 73:209–263
Cruden DM, Varnes DJ (1996) Landslide types and processes. In: Turner AK, Schuster RL (eds) Landslides, investigation and mitigation: Transportation Research Board (Special Report 247). US National Research Council, Washington, DC, pp 36–75
Dagdelenler G, Nefeslioglu HA, Gokceoglu C (2016) A modified seed cell sampling strategy for landslide susceptibility assessment: the eastern part of the Gallipoli Peninsula (Canakkale, Turkey). Bull Eng Geol Environ 75(2):575–590
Dumas B, Guéremy P, Lhenaff R, Raffy T (1984) Mouvements de terrain et risques associés: présentation d'un essai cartographique. Coll. on “Mouvements de terrain”. Assoc Fr Géogr Phys, Caen 161–171
El Fellah B, Azzouz O, Assebriy L (1996) Sikha Asfalou; exemple de glissement de terrain littoral sur la côte méditerranéenne des Bokoya entre Torrès et Badis, Rif, Maroc. - ORSTOM, réseau érosion, 16 p
El Kharim Y (2012) Rasgos geológicos de la inestabilidad de laderas en la región de Tetuán (Rif septentrional, Marruecos). Boletín de la Real Sociedad Española de Historia Natural. Sección geológica, ISSN 0583-7510, Tomo 106(1):39–52
El Khattabi J (1997) Caractérisation des zones à risques le long du trace routier Tetouan-Al Hoceima: application au tronçon Cala Iriks Taghzoute (Rif, Maroc). Université de Lille, DEA Géographie Physique
El Khattabi J, Carlier E (2004) Tectonic and hydrodynamic control of landslides in the northern area of the Central Rif, Morocco. Eng Geol 71(3):255–264
Faleh A, Sadiki A (2002) Glissement rotationnel de Dhar El Harrag: exemple d’instabilité de terrain dans le Prérif central (Maroc). Water:41–48
EMSC (2018) European Mediterranean Seismological Centre. https://www.emsc-csem.org/#2 (21.05.2018)
Fares A (1994) Essai méthodologique de la cartographie des risques naturels liés aux mouvements de terrain. Application à l’aménagement de la ville de Taounate (Rif, Maroc). Thèse de doctorat, université de Franche Comté
Fell R, Corominas J, Bonnard C, Cascini L, Leroi E, Savage WZ (2008) Guidelines for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zoning for land use planning. Eng Geol 102:85–98
Fick S, Hijmans R (2017) WorldClim 2: New 1-km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5086
Flageollet J C (1989) « Les mouvements de terrain et leur prévention » collection Géographie, édition Masson, Paris
Fonseca AF DE PSC (2014) Large deep-seated landslides in the northern Rif Mountains (Northern Morocco): inventory and analysis. Thèse de doctorat, Lisboa
Hagan MT, Demuth HB, Beale MH (1996) Neural Network Design, Boston, MA., PWS Publishing, 734 p
Hansen A (1984) Engineering geomorphology: the application of an evolutionary model of Hong Kong’s terrain. Zeitschrift für Geomorphologie, Supplement band 51:39–50
Kaya E, Agca M, Adiguzel F, Cetin M (2018) Spatial data analysis with R programming for environment. Hum Ecol Risk Assess. https://doi.org/10.1080/10807039.2018.1470896
Lee S (2005) Application of logistic regression model and its validation for landslide susceptibility mapping using GIS and remote sensing data. Int J Remote Sens 26:1477–1491
Lee S, Ryu J, Min K, Won J (2001) Proceedings of the Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, IGARSS ’01, IEEE 2001 International 5:2364–2366
LP DAAC (2018) NASA EOSDIS Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center (LP DAAC) at the USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center, Sioux Falls, South Dakota. https://lpdaac.usgs.gov (21.05.2018)
Mansour M (1998) Geodynamic processes and cartography of ground movements in the area of Chefchaouen (District of Bouhalla-Amtrass). Application to the stabilization of main road Nb: 39. Western Rif, Morocco. Thèse de doctorat, université Paris-Diderot (Paris 7)
Margaa KH (1994) Essai de cartographie des risques naturels: application à l’aménagement de la région d’Al Hoceïma. Thèse Univ. Franche-Comté, Besançon, France
Mastere M (2011) La susceptibilité aux mouvements de terrain dans la province de Chefchaouen (Rif central, Maroc): analyse spatiale, modélisation probabiliste multi-échelle et impact sur l’aménagement et l’urbanisme. Université de Bretagne occidentale, Thèse
Maurer G (1968) Les montagnes du Rif central. Étude géomorphologique. Thèse, universtité de Paris
Maurer G (1965) Carte géomorphologique du Rif central. Travaux de l’institut Scientifique Chérifien, Service Géographie Physique, Rabat
Mayoraz F, Cornu T, Vuillet L (1996) Using Neural networks to predict slope movements. Proc. VII Int. Symp. on Landslides, Trondheim, June 1966, 1. Balkema, Rotterdam, pp 295–300
Michard A, Sadiqi O, Chalouane A et al. (2008) Continental evolution: the geology of Morocco. Structure, stratigraphy, and tectonics of the Africa-Atlantic-Mediterranean triple junction. Advances in geographic information science. Springer, 438 p.
Millies-Lacroix CA (1968) Les glissements de terrain. Présentation d’une carte prévisionnelle des mouvements de masse dans le Rif (Maroc septentrional). Mines et Géologie 27:45–55
Moore ID, Grayson RB, Ladson AR (1991) Digital terrain modelling: a review of hydrological, geomorphological, and biological applications. Hydrol Process 5:3–30
Nefeslioglu HA, Duman TY, Durmaz S (2008) Landslide susceptibility mapping for a part of tectonic Kelkit Valley (Eastern Black Sea region of Turkey). Geomorphology 94(3-4):401–418
Nefeslioglu HA, Gokceoglu C (2011) Probabilistic risk assessment in medium scale for rainfall induced earthflows: Catakli catchment area (Cayeli, Rize, Turkey). Mathematical Problems in Engineering Article ID 280431. https://doi.org/10.1155/2011/280431
Nefeslioglu HA, San BT, Gokceoglu C, Duman TY (2012) An assessment on the use of Terra ASTER L3A data in landslide susceptibility mapping. Int J Appl Earth Obs Geoinf 14:40–60
Nefeslioglu HA, Sezer E, Gokceoglu C, Bozkir AS, Duman TY (2010) Assessment of landslide susceptibility by decision trees in the metropolitan area of Istanbul, Turkey. Mathematical Problems in Engineering Article ID 901095 (https://doi.org/10.1155/2010/901095)
Ozer BC, Mutlu B, Nefeslioglu HA, Sezer EA, Rouai M, Dekayir A, Gokceoglu C (2019) On the use of hierarchical fuzzy systems (HFS) in landslide susceptibility mapping: the central part of the Rif Mountains (Morocco). B Eng Geol Environ (in press):1–18. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-019-01548-5
Pradhan B (2010) Remote sensing and GIS-based landslide hazard analysis and cross-validation using multivariate logistic regression model on three test areas in Malaysia. Adv Space Res 45(10):1244–1256
Pradhan B, Lee S, Buchroithner MF (2010) A GIS-based back-propagation neural network model and its cross-application and validation for landslide susceptibility analyses. Comput Environ Urban Syst 34(3):216–235
Rkiouak S, Pulido-bosch A et al (1997) Potentialités hydrogéologiques d’une plaine littorale marocaine (Oued Laou, Tétouan-Chefehaouen). Hydrolog Sci J 42(1):101–117
Rouai M, Jaaidi EB (2003) Scaling properties of landslides in the Rif Mountains of Morocco. Eng Geol 68:353–359
San BT (2014) An evaluation of SVM using polygon-based random sampling in landslide susceptibility mapping: the Candir catchment area (western Antalya, Turkey). Int J Appl Earth Obs Geoinf 26:399–412
Service géologique du Maroc (1975) Carte géologique du Rif: Talembot / Royaume du Maroc, Ministère de l'énergie et des mines, Direction de la géologie; levés: KORNPROBST J. & WILDI W / Rabat
Service géologique du Maroc (1980) Carte géologique du Rif NI-30-XX-1c, Bou Ahmed / Royaume du Maroc, Ministère de l’énergie et des mines, Direction de la géologie; levés: Kornprobst / Rabat
Service géologique du Maroc (2011) Carte géologique du Maroc 1:50 000 Feuille NI-30-XX-1a, Bab Berret / Royaume du Maroc, Ministère de l’énergie, des mines, de l’eau et de l’environnement, Département de l’énergie et des mines, Direction du développement minier; Levés: J. Kombrobst, M. Gutnic, Ph. Olivier [et al.] / Rabat
Sezer EA, Pradhan B, Gokceoglu C (2011) Manifestation of an adaptive neuro-fuzzy model on landslide susceptibility mapping: Klang valley, Malaysia. Expert Syst Appl 38(7):8208–8219
Thauvin JP (1971) Domaines du Rif et du Maroc oriental in: Ressources en eau du Maroc, Tome 1, Notes et Mémoires du Service Géologique du Maroc, N 231, Rabat
Tucker J (1979) Red and photographic infrared linear combinations for monitoring vegetation. Remote Sens Environ 8:127–150
Turrini MC, Visintainer P (1998) Proposal of a method to define areas of landslide hazard and application to an area of the Dolomites, Italy. Eng Geol 50:255–265
Wilson JP, Gallant JC (2000) Terrain analysis, principles and applications New York: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
Yucedag C, Kaya LG, Cetin M (2018) Identifying and assessing environmental awareness of hotel and restaurant employees’ attitudes in the Amasra District of Bartin. Environ Monit Assess 190(2):60
Zhou W (1999) Verification of nonparametric characteristics of backpropagation neural networks for image classification. IEEE T Geosci Remote 37:771–779