Markov chain model to study the occurrence of pre-monsoon thunderstorms over Bhubaneswar, India

Comptes Rendus Geoscience - Tập 344 - Trang 473-482 - 2012
Surajit Chattopadhyay1, Nachiketa Acharya2, Goutami Chattopadhyay3, Siripurapu Kiran Prasad2, Uma Charan Mohanty2
1Department of Computer Application, Pailan College of Management and Technology, Kolkata, India
2Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, IIT, New Delhi, India
3Department of Mathematics, Bengal Engineering and Science University, Shibpur, Howrah, India

Tài liệu tham khảo

Akaike, 1974, A new look at the statistical model identification, IEEE T. Automat. Contr., 19, 716, 10.1109/TAC.1974.1100705 Biga, 1981, Statistical behavior of solar irradiation over consecutive days, Sol. Energy, 27, 149, 10.1016/0038-092X(81)90037-2 Dasgupta, 2001, Markov chain models for pre-monsoon thunderstorm in Calcutta, India, Indian J. Radio Space Phys., 30, 138 Dhawan, 2008, Forecasting of thunderstorms in pre-monsoon season over northwest India, Mausam, 59, 433, 10.54302/mausam.v59i4.1272 Ghosh, 2008, Initiation of Nor’wester in relation to mid-upper and low-level water vapor patterns on METEOSAT-5 images, Atmos. Res., 87, 116, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2007.08.001 Goldar, 2001 Gupta, 1982, Reported cases of tornadoes in Indian subcontinent, Vayu Mandal, 12, 57 India Meteorological Department (2012). Kantz, 2004, Markov chain model for turbulent wind speed data, Physica A, 342, 315, 10.1016/j.physa.2004.01.070 Kulkarni, 2002, Markov chain models for pre-monsoon season thunderstorms over Pune, Int. J. Climatol., 22, 1415, 10.1002/joc.782 Litta, 2008, Simulation of a severe thunderstorm event during the field experiment of STORM programme 2006, using WRF–NMM model, Curr. Sci., 95, 204 Litta, 2011, Simulation of tornado over Orissa (India) on March 31, 2009, using WRF–NMM model, Nat. Hazards, 61, 1219, 10.1007/s11069-011-9979-1 Little, 2009, Generalized linear models for site-specific density forecasting of U.K. daily rainfall, Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 1029, 10.1175/2008MWR2614.1 Mimikdu, 1983, Daily precipitation occurrences modelling with Markov chain of seasonal order, Hydrol. Sci. J., 28, 221, 10.1080/02626668309491962 Mohanty, 2006 Mohanty, 2007 Mukhopadhyay, 2003, Objective forecast of thundery/non thundery days using conventional indices over three northeast Indian stations, Mausam, 54, 867, 10.54302/mausam.v54i4.1587 Murthy, 2011, Pre-monsoon/monsoon thunderstorm characteristics over Pune – an investigation using Doppler Sodar observations, J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys., 73, 2356, 10.1016/j.jastp.2011.07.012 Muselli, 2001, First order Markov chain model for generating synthetic “typical days” series of global irradiation in order to design photovoltaic stand alone systems, Energ. Convers. Manage., 42, 675, 10.1016/S0196-8904(00)00090-X Science Plan, 2005 Sheskin, 1985, Technical note – a Markov chain partitioning algorithm for computing steady state probabilities, Oper. Res., 33, 228, 10.1287/opre.33.1.228 Shamshad, 2005, First and second order Markov chain models for synthetic generation of wind speed time series, Energy, 30, 693, 10.1016/j.energy.2004.05.026 Song, 2011, Mining Markov chain transition matrix from wind speed time series data, Expert Syst. Appl., 38, 10229, 10.1016/j.eswa.2011.02.063 Srinivasan, V., Ramamuthy, K., Nene, Y.R., 1973. Summer – Nor’westers and Andhis and large scale convective activity over peninsula and central parts of the country. India Meteorological Department, Forecasting Manual: Part III. Tyagi, 2007, Thunderstorm climatology over Indian region, Mausam, 58, 189, 10.54302/mausam.v58i2.1204 Tyagi, 2011, Study of thermodynamic indices in forecasting pre-monsoon thunderstorms over Kolkata during STORM pilot phase 2006–2008, Nat. Hazards, 56, 681, 10.1007/s11069-010-9582-x Varotsos, 2006, Long-memory processes in ozone and temperature variations at the region 60 degrees S-60 degrees N, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 4093, 10.5194/acp-6-4093-2006 Varotsos, 2007, Technical Note: long-term, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 629, 10.5194/acp-7-629-2007 Varotsos, 2005, Scaling properties of air pollution in Athens, Greece and Baltimore, Maryland, Atmos. Environ., 39, 4041, 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2005.03.024 Varotsos, 2003, Long-range correlations in the electric signals that precede rupture: further investigations, Phys. Rev. E, 67, 021109, 10.1103/PhysRevE.67.021109 Villarini, 2009, On the stationarity of annual flood peaks in the continental United States during the 20th century, Water Resour. Res., 45, W08417, 10.1029/2008WR007645 Wilks, 1998, Multisite generalization of a daily stochastic precipitation generation model, J. Hydrol., 210, 178, 10.1016/S0022-1694(98)00186-3 Wilks, 1999, Interannual variability and extreme-value characteristics of several stochastic daily precipitation models, Agr. Forest. Meteorol., 93, 153, 10.1016/S0168-1923(98)00125-7 Wilks, 2006, vol. 59