Agent-Based Modeling and Analysis of Hurricane Evacuation Procedures for the Florida Keys
Tóm tắt
The unique geography of the Florida Keys presents both high risk of hurricane landfall and exceptional vulnerability to the effects of a hurricane strike. Inadequate hurricane shelters in the Keys make evacuation the only option for most residents, but the sole access road can become impassable well in advance of a major storm. These extraordinary conditions create challenges for emergency managers who must ensure that appropriate emergency plans are in place and to ensure that an orderly exodus can occur without stranding large numbers of people along an evacuation route with inadequate shelter capacity. This study attempts to answer two questions: (1) What is the minimum clearance time needed to evacuate all residents participating in an evacuation of the Florida Keys in advance of a major hurricane for 92,596 people – a population size calculated based on the 2000 US Census population data, census undercounts, and the number of tourists estimated to be in the area? (2) If a hurricane makes landfall in the Keys while the evacuation is in progress, how many residents will need to be accommodated if the evacuation route becomes impassable? The authors conducted agent-based microsimulations to answer the questions. Simulation results suggest that it takes 20 h and 11 min to 20 h and 14 min to evacuate the 92,596 people. This clearance time is less than the Florida state mandated 24-h clearance time limit. If one assumes that people evacuate in a 48-h period and the traffic flow from the Keys would follow that observed in the evacuation from Hurricane Georges, then a total of 460 people may be stranded if the evacuation route becomes impassable 48 h after an evacuation order is issued. If the evacuation route becomes impassable 40 h after an evacuation order is issued, then 14,000 people may be stranded.
Tài liệu tham khảo
P. Anderson (1999) ArticleTitleComplexity theory and organization science Organ. Sci. 10 IssueID3 216–232 Occurrence Handle10.1287/orsc.10.3.216
Baker, E. J.: 2000, Hurricane evacuation behavioral assumptions for the Florida Keys, Department of Geography, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, U.S.A
E. J. Baker (1991) ArticleTitleHurricane evacuation behavior Int. J. Mass Emerg. Disast. 9 IssueID2 287–310
E. Bonabeau (2002a) ArticleTitlePredicting the unpredictable Harvard Bus. Rev. 80 IssueID3 109–115
E. Bonabeau (2002b) ArticleTitleAgent-based modeling: Methods and techniques for simulating human systems Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 99 7280–7287 Occurrence Handle10.1073/pnas.082080899
Chen, X. and Zhan, F. B.: 2004, Agent-based modeling and simulation of urban evacuation: Relative effectiveness of simultaneous and staged evacuation strategies, Presented at 83rd Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 11–15 January
R. L. Church R. M. Sexton (2002) Modeling Small Area Evacuation: Can Existing Transportation Infrastructure Impede Public Safety? Caltrans Testbed Center for Interoperability Task Order 3021 Report, Vehicle Intelligence & Transportation Analysis Laboratory, University of California Santa Barbara
T. J. Cova J. P. Johnson (2002) ArticleTitleMicrosimulation of neighborhood evacuations in the urban-wildland interface Environ. Plan. A 34 IssueID12 2211–2229 Occurrence Handle10.1068/a34251
T. J. Cova R. L. Church (1997) ArticleTitleModeling community evacuation vulnerability using GIS Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci. 11 IssueID8 763–784 Occurrence Handle10.1080/136588197242077
J. A. Cross (1990) ArticleTitleLongitudinal changes in hurricane hazard perception Int. J. Mass Emerg. Disast. (IJMED) 8 IssueID1 31–47
N. Dash B. H. Morrow (2001) ArticleTitleReturn delays and evacuation order compliance: The case of Hurricane Georges and the Florida Keys Glob. Environ. Change-Environ. Hazards 2 119–128 Occurrence Handle10.1016/S1464-2867(01)00008-0
T. E. Drabek (1986) Human System Response to Disaster: An Inventory of Sociological Findings Springer-Verlag New York
W. Ebeling F. Schweitzer (2001) ArticleTitleSwarms of particle agents with harmonic interactions Theory Biosci. 120 IssueID3–4 207–224 Occurrence Handle10.1078/1431-7613-00041
Farahmand, K.: 1997, Application of simulation modeling to emergency population evacuation, In: Proc. 1997 Winter Simulation Conference, 1181–1188, Atlanta, Georgia, 7–10 December
Fu, H., Wilmot, C.: 2004, A sequential logic dynamic travel demand model for hurricane evacuation, Presented at 83rd Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 11–15 January
N. Gilbert S. Bankes (2002) ArticleTitlePlatforms and methods for agent-based modeling Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 99 7197–7198 Occurrence Handle10.1073/pnas.072079499
Hobeika, A. G. and Jamei, B.: 1985, MASSVAC: A model for calculating evacuation times under natural disaster, In: Carroll, J. M. (ed.), Proceedings of the Conference on Emergency Planning, Simulation Series, San Diego, California, 24–25 January, Society for Computer Simulation, La Jolla, California, 15(1), pp. 23–28
M. Jha K. Moore B. Pashaie (2004) ArticleTitleEmergency evacuation planning with microscopic traffic simulation Transport. Res. Rec. 1886 40–48
D. S. Meleti T. E. Drabek E. J. Haas (1975) Human Systems in Extreme Environments: A Sociological Perspective Colorado Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado Boulder, CO
Miller Consulting Inc.: 2001, Florida Keys hurricane evacuation report, Contract No. C7391, Florida Department of Transportation, Miami, Florida
Moeller, M., Urbanik, T., and Desrosiers, A.: 1981, CLEAR (Calculated Logical Evacuation and Response): A generic transportation network evacuation model for the calculation of evacuation time estimates, NUREG/CR-2504, Prepared for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission by Pacific Northwest Laboratory, Washington, D.C
InstitutionalAuthorNameMonroe County (2003) Monroe County Public Facilities Capacity Assessment Report Monroe County Board of County Commissioners Monroe County, FL
C. E. Nelson M. D. Coovert A. Kurtz B. Fritzche C. Crumley A. Powell (1989) Models of hurricane evacuation behavior Department of Psychology, University of South Florida Tampa, FL
ORNL (Oak Ridge National Laboratory): 1998, Oak Ridge Evacuation Modeling System (OREMS) Version 2.50 User’s Guide, Oak Ridge, TN
R. D. Perkins P. Enos (1968) ArticleTitleHurricane Betsy in the Florida-Bahamas area: Geologic effects and comparison with Hurricane Donna J. Geol. 76 710–717 Occurrence Handle10.1086/627394
M. Pidd F. N. Silva Particlede R. W. Eglese (1996) ArticleTitleA simulation model for emergency evacuation Eur. J. Oper. Res. 90 IssueID3 413–419 Occurrence Handle10.1016/0377-2217(95)00112-3
Post, Buckley, Schuh and Jernigan Inc: 1999, Hurricane Georges assessment: Review of hurricane evacuation studies utilization and information dissemination, Prepared for U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Mobile and Jacksonville Districts and Federal Emergency Management Agency Region IV, Mobile, AL
Y. Sheffi H. Mahmassani W. B. Powell (1982) ArticleTitleA transportation network evacuation model Transp. Res. Pt. A-Policy Pract. 16 IssueID3 209–218
Z. Sinuany-Stern E. Stern (1993) ArticleTitleSimulating the evacuation of a small city: The effects of traffic factors Socio. Econ. Plan. Sci. 27 IssueID2 97–108 Occurrence Handle10.1016/0038-0121(93)90010-G
E. Stern Z. Sinuany-Stern Z. S. Holm (1996) ArticleTitleCongestion-related information and road network performance J. Transport Geogr. 4 IssueID3 169–178 Occurrence Handle10.1016/0966-6923(96)00021-X
T. Urbanik SuffixII (2000) ArticleTitleEvacuation time estimates for nuclear power plants J. Hazard. Mater. 75 IssueID2–3 165–180 Occurrence Handle10.1016/S0304-3894(00)00178-3
InstitutionalAuthorNameURS Corporation Inc. (2002) Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study: Test Carrying Capacity/Impact Assessment Module URS Corporation Inc Tampa, FL
U. S. Census Bureau: 2004, Monroe County QuickFacts, 2004, quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/12/12087.html, Accessed July 27, 2004
PTV Planung Transport Verkehr AG: 2003, VISSIM 3.70 User Manual, Corvallis, OR
G. F. White E. J. Haas (1975) Assessment of Research on Natural Hazards MIT Press Cambridge, MA
Wiedemann R.: 1974, Simulation des Straβenverkehrsflusses, Schriftenreihe des Instituts für Verkehrswesen der Universität Karlsruhe 8
G. O. Windham E. I. Posey P. Ross B. G. Spenser (1977) Reactions to Storm Threat during Hurricane Eloise Social Science Research Center Report 51 Mississippi State University State College, MS