(Why) Should Current Account Balances Be Reduced?
Tóm tắt
The purpose of this note is to discuss two complex issues. First, why might a country want to reduce its current account deficit or surplus? And second, why might the international community ask for more? We argue that, in many cases, current account balances reflect underlying domestic distortions. It is then in the interest of the country to remove those distortions and, in the process, reduce imbalances. We then discuss cases where spillover effects, either from deficits or surpluses, suggest a direct role for multilateral surveillance. This process can play two potentially useful roles: first, as a discussion of the differences in assessments; second, as a potentially useful commitment device for countries to implement some of the required but politically unpalatable fiscal or structural adjustments.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Bernanke, Ben S., Carol Bertaut, Laurie Pounder deMarco, and Steven Kamin, 2011, “International Capital Flows and the Returns to Safe Assets in the United States, 2003–2007,” Federal Reserve Board International Finance Discussion Paper 1014, February.
Blanchard, Olivier, Mitali Das, and Hamid Faruqee, 2010, “The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Spring), pp. 263–307.
Blanchard, Olivier, and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2010, “Global Imbalances: In Midstream?,” in Reconstructing the World Economy, ed. by Olivier Blanchard and Il SaKong (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Caballero, Ricardo, and Guido Lorenzoni, 2007, “Persistent Appreciations and Overshooting: A Normative Analysis,” NBER Working Paper 13077 (Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research).
Catão, Luis, and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2011, “External Liabilities and Crises,” mimeo, International Monetary Fund.
Council of Economic Advisers, 2009, “Economic Report of the President,” January.
Eichengreen, Barry, and Jeffrey Sachs, 1985, “Exchange Rates and Economic Recovery in the 1930s,” Journal of Economic History, Vol. 45, pp. 925–946.
International Monetary Fund, 2007, “Staff Report on the Multilateral Consultation on Global Imbalances with China, the Euro Area, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and the United States,” www.imf.org/external/np/pp/2007/eng/062907.pdf.
Kaminsky, Graciela L., and Carmen M. Reinhart, 1999, “The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems,” American Economic Review, Vol. 89, No. 3, pp. 473–500.
Korinek, Anton, 2010, “Regulating Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: An Externality View,” unpublished (University of Maryland, May).
Lane, Philip R., and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2011, “The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis,” IMF Economic Review, Vol. 59, No. 1 (April), pp. 77–110.
Mateos y, Lago Isabelle, Rupa Duttagupta, and Rishi Goyal, 2009, The Debate on the International Monetary System, IMF Staff Position Note 09/26 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Obstfeld, Maurice, and Kenneth Rogoff, 2010, “Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis: Products of Common Causes,” in Asia Economic Policy Conference Volume, ed. by Reuven Glick and Mark M. Spiegel (San Francisco: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco).