‘Tipping points’ for the Amazon forest

Carlos Afonso Nobre1, Laura De Simone Borma1
1Center for Earth System Science, National Institute for Space Research – INPE, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil

Tài liệu tham khảo

Dirzo, 2003, Global state of biodiversity and loss, Annu Rev Env Res, 28, 137, 10.1146/annurev.energy.28.050302.105532 Field, 1998, Primary production of the biosphere: integrating terrestrial and oceanic components, Science, 281, 237, 10.1126/science.281.5374.237 Nobre, 1991, Amazonian deforestation and regional climate change, J Climate, 4, 957, 10.1175/1520-0442(1991)004<0957:ADARCC>2.0.CO;2 Betts, 2008, The future of the Amazon: new perspectives from climate, ecosystem and social sciences, Philos Trans R Soc B, 363, 1729, 10.1098/rstb.2008.0011 Malhi, 2006, The regional variation of aboveground live biomass in old-growth Amazonian forests, Global Change Biol, 12, 1107, 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01120.x Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Especiais, 2008 Lenton, 2008, Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system, Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 105, 1786, 10.1073/pnas.0705414105 Oyama, 2003, A new climate–vegetation equilibrium state for tropical South America, Geophys Res Lett, 30, 2199, 10.1029/2003GL018600 Foley, 2007, Amazonia revealed: forest degradation and loss of ecosystem goods and services in the Amazon Basin, Front Ecol Environ, 5, 25, 10.1890/1540-9295(2007)5[25:ARFDAL]2.0.CO;2 Sampaio, 2007, Regional climate change over eastern Amazonia caused by pasture and soybean cropland expansion, Geophys Res Lett, 34, L17709, 10.1029/2007GL030612 Salazar, 2007, Climate change consequences on the biome distribution in tropical South America, Geophys Res Lett, 34, L09708, 10.1029/2007GL029695 Malhi, 2008, Climate change, deforestation, and the fate of the Amazon, Science, 319, 169, 10.1126/science.1146961 Lapola, 2009, Exploring the range of climate-biome projections for tropical South America: the role of CO2 fertilization and seasonality, Global Biogeochem Cycles, 23, GB3003, 10.1029/2008GB003357 Barlow, 2008, Fire-mediated dieback and compositional cascade in an Amazonian forest, Philos Trans R Soc B, 363, 1787, 10.1098/rstb.2007.0013 Nepstad, 2008, Interactions among Amazon land use, forests and climate: prospects for a near-term forest tipping point, Philos Trans R Soc B, 363, 1737, 10.1098/rstb.2007.0036 Marengo, 2008, Hydro-climatic and ecological behaviour of the drought of Amazonia in 2005, Philos Trans R Soc B, 363, 1773, 10.1098/rstb.2007.0015 INPE/CPTEC Climanalise. nr. 1, Jan 2006. http://climanalise.cptec.inpe.br/∼rclimanl/boletim/index0106.shtml. INPE/CPTEC Infoclima. Boletim de Informações Climáticas. nr. 5, 2009, 3 p. http://infoclima1.cptec.inpe.br/. Phillips, 2009, Drought sensitivity of the Amazon rainforest, Science, 323, 1344, 10.1126/science.1164033 Soares-Filho, 2006, Modelling conservation in the Amazon basin, Nature, 440, 520, 10.1038/nature04389 Hansen, 2008, Comparing annual MODIS and PRODES forest cover change data for advancing monitoring of Brazilian forest cover, Remote Sens Environ, 112, 3784, 10.1016/j.rse.2008.05.012 Hansen, 2008, Humid tropical forest clearing from 2000 to 2005 quantified by using multitemporal and multiresolution remotely sensed data, Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 27, 9439, 10.1073/pnas.0804042105 Asner, 2005, Selective logging in the Brazilian Amazon, Science, 310, 480, 10.1126/science.1118051 Sawyer, 2008, Climate change, biofuels and eco-social impacts in the Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado, Philos Trans R Soc B, 363, 1747, 10.1098/rstb.2007.0030 Perz, 2008, Road building, land use and climate change: prospects for environmental governance in the Amazon, Philos Trans R Soc B, 363, 1889, 10.1098/rstb.2007.0017 Fearnside, 2007, Deforestation in Amazonia Costa, 2007, Climate change in Amazonia caused by soybean cropland expansion, as compared to caused by pastureland expansion, Geophys Res Lett, 34, 10.1029/2007GL029271 Roy, 2002, Impact of land use/land cover change on regional hydrometeorology in Amazonia, J Geophys Res, 107, LBA 4.1 da Silva, 2008, Regional impacts of future land-cover changes on the Amazon Basin wet-season climate, J Climate, 21, 1153, 10.1175/2007JCLI1304.1 D’Almeida, 2007, The effects of deforestation on the hydrological cycle in Amazonia: a review on scale and resolution, Int J Climatol, 27, 633, 10.1002/joc.1475 Coe, 2009, The influence of historical and potential future deforestation on the stream flow, J Hydrol, 369, 165, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.02.043 Gash, 1997, Climatic effects of Amazonian deforestation: some results from ABRACOS, Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 78, 823, 10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<0823:CEOADS>2.0.CO;2 Cutrim, 1995, Enhancement of cumulus clouds over deforested lands in Amazonia, Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 76, 1801, 10.1175/1520-0477(1995)076<1801:EOCCOD>2.0.CO;2 Wang, 2009, Impact of deforestation in the Amazon basin on cloud climatology, Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 106, 3670, 10.1073/pnas.0810156106 Andreae, 2004, Smoking rain clouds over the Amazon, Science, 303, 1337, 10.1126/science.1092779 Nepstad, 2007, Mortality of large trees and lianas following experimental drought in an Amazon forest, Ecology, 88, 2259, 10.1890/06-1046.1 Brando, 2008, Drought effects on litterfall, wood production and belowground carbo cycling in an Amazon forest: results of a throughfall reduction experiment, Philos Trans R Soc B, 363, 1839, 10.1098/rstb.2007.0031 Fisher, 2007, The response of an eastern Amazonian rain forest to drought stress: results and modelling analyses from a through-fall exclusion experiment, Glob Change Biol, 13, 2361, 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01417.x Meir, 2008, The fate of assimilated carbon during drought: impacts on respiration in Amazon rainforests, Philos Trans R Soc B, 363, 1849, 10.1098/rstb.2007.0021 Phillips, 2002, Increasing dominance of large lianas in Amazonian forests, Nature, 418, 770, 10.1038/nature00926 Phillips, 2005, Large lianas as hyperdynamic elements of the tropical forest canopy, Ecology, 86, 1250, 10.1890/04-1446 Marengo, 2008, The drought of Amazonia in 2005, J Climate, 21, 495, 10.1175/2007JCLI1600.1 Zeng, 2008, Causes and impacts of the 2005 Amazon drought, Environ Res Lett, 3., 10.1088/1748-9326/3/1/014002 Aragão, 2007, Spatial patterns and fire response of recent Amazonian droughts, Geophys Res Lett, 34, L07701, 10.1029/2006GL028946 Saleska, 2007, Amazon forests green-up during 2005 drought, Science, 318, 612, 10.1126/science.1146663 Huete, 2006, Amazon rainforests green-up with sunlight in dry season, Geophys Res Lett, 33, L06405, 10.1029/2005GL025583 da Rocha, 2009, Patterns of water and heat flux across a biome gradient from tropical forest to savanna in Brazil, J Geophys Res, 114, G00B12 Negrón-Juarez, 2007, Control of dry season evapotranspiration over the Amazonian forest as inferred from observations at a Southern Amazon forest site, J Climate, 20, 2827, 10.1175/JCLI4184.1 Nepstad, 2004, Amazon drought and its implications for forest flammability and tree growth: a basin-wide analysis, Global Change Biol, 10, 704, 10.1111/j.1529-8817.2003.00772.x Oliveira, 2005, Hydraulic redistribution in three Amazonian trees, Oecologia, 145, 354, 10.1007/s00442-005-0108-2 Hoffmann, 2002, The cerrados of Brazil: ecology and natural history of a neotropical savanna, 159 Barlow, 2004, Ecological responses to El Niño-induced surface fires in central Brazilian Amazonia: management implications for flammable tropical forests, Philos Trans R Soc B, 359, 367, 10.1098/rstb.2003.1423 Cochrane, 2008, Synergisms among fire, land use, and climate change in the Amazon, Ambio, 37, 522, 10.1579/0044-7447-37.7.522 Bowman, 2009, Fire in the Earth system, Science, 324, 481, 10.1126/science.1163886 Barbosa, 1999, Incêndios na Amazônia Brasileira: Estimativa da emissão de gases do efeito estufa pela queima de diferentes ecossistemas de Roraima na passagem do evento ‘El Niño’ (1997/1998), Acta Amazonica, 29, 513, 10.1590/1809-43921999294534 Cochrane, 1999, Positive feedbacks in the fire dynamic of closed canopy tropical forests, Science, 284, 1832, 10.1126/science.284.5421.1832 Siegert, 2001, Increased damage from fires in logged forests during droughts caused by El Niño, Nature, 414, 437, 10.1038/35106547 Page, 2002, The amount of carbon released from peat and forest fires in Indonesia during 1997, Nature, 420, 61, 10.1038/nature01131 Cochrane, 2003, Fire science for rainforests, Nature, 421, 913, 10.1038/nature01437 Alencar, 2006, Forest understory fire in the Brazilian Amazon in ENSO and no-ENSO years: area burned and committed carbon emissions, Earth Interact, 10, 10.1175/EI150.1 Nepstad, 2004, Amazon drought and its implications for forest flammability and tree growth: a basin-wide analysis, Global Change Biol, 10, 704, 10.1111/j.1529-8817.2003.00772.x Cardoso, 2008, Long-term potential for fires in estimates of the occurrence of savannas in the tropics, Global Ecol Biogeogr, 17, 222, 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2007.00356.x Cardoso, 2009, Long-term potential for tropical-forest degradation due to deforestation and fires in the Brazilian Amazon, Biologia, 64, 433, 10.2478/s11756-009-0076-9 Victoria, 1998, Surface air temperature variations in the Amazon region and its borders during this century, J Climate, 11, 1105, 10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<1105:SATVIT>2.0.CO;2 Bush, 2004, 48,000 years of climate and forest change in a biodiversity hot spot, Science, 303, 827, 10.1126/science.1090795 Christensen, 2007, Regional climate projections Betts, 2004, The role of ecosystem–atmosphere interactions in simulated Amazonian precipitation decrease and forest dieback under global climate warming, Theor Appl Climatol, 78, 157, 10.1007/s00704-004-0050-y Cox, 2000, Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model, Nature, 408, 184, 10.1038/35041539 Cox, 2004, Amazonian forest dieback under climate–carbon cycle projections for the 21st century, Theor Appl Climatol, 78, 137, 10.1007/s00704-004-0049-4 Cox, 2008, Increasing risk of Amazonian drought due to decreasing aerosol pollution, Nature, 453, 212, 10.1038/nature06960 Huntingford, 2008, Towards quantifying uncertainty in predictions of Amazon ‘dieback’, Philos Trans R Soc B, 363, 1857, 10.1098/rstb.2007.0028 Betts, 2008, Effects of large-scale Amazon forest degradation on climate and air quality through fluxes of carbon dioxide, water, energy, mineral dust and isoprene, Philos Trans R Soc B, 363, 1873, 10.1098/rstb.2007.0027 Saatchi, 2007, Spatial distribution of aboveground live biomass in the Amazon Basin, Global Change Biol, 13, 816, 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01323.x Baker, 2004, Increasing biomass in Amazonian forest plots, Philos Trans R Soc Lond B, 359, 353, 10.1098/rstb.2003.1422 Stephens, 2007, Weak northern and strong tropical land carbon uptake from vertical profiles of atmospheric CO2, Science, 316, 1732, 10.1126/science.1137004 Li, 2006, Rainfall and its seasonality over the Amazon in the 21st century as assessed by the coupled models for the IPCC AR4, J Geophys Res, 111, D02111 Good, 2008, An objective tropical Atlantic SST gradient index for studies of south Amazon dry-season climate variability and change, Philos Trans R Soc B, 363, 1761, 10.1098/rstb.2007.0024 Harris, 2008, Amazon Basin climate under global warming: the role of the sea surface temperature, Philos Trans R Soc B, 363, 1753, 10.1098/rstb.2007.0037 Marengo, 2004, Interdecadal variability and trends of rainfall across the Amazon basin, Theor Appl Climatol, 78, 79, 10.1007/s00704-004-0045-8 Obregon, 2003, Rainfall trends in Brazil, Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 84, 1008 Marengo, 2009, Future change of temperature and precipitation extremes in South America as derived from the PRECIS regional climate modeling system, Int J Climatol, 30, 1 Scholze, 2006, A climate-change risk analysis for world ecosystems, Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 103, 13116, 10.1073/pnas.0601816103 Cook, 2008, Effects of twenty-first-century climate change on the Amazon rain forest, J Climate, 21, 542, 10.1175/2007JCLI1838.1 Malhi, 2009, Exploring the likelihood and mechanism of a climate-change-induced dieback of the Amazon rainforest, Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 10.1073/pnas.0804619106 Norby, 2005, Forest response to elevated CO2 is conserved across a broad range of productivity, Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 102, 18052, 10.1073/pnas.0509478102 Lloyd, 2008, Effects of rising temperatures and [CO2] on the physiology of tropical forest trees, Philos Trans R Soc B, 363, 1811, 10.1098/rstb.2007.0032 Long, 2004, Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide: plants FACE the future, Annu Rev Plant Biol, 55, 591, 10.1146/annurev.arplant.55.031903.141610 Norby, 2006, Nitrogen uptake, distribution, turnover, and efficiency of use in a CO2-enriched sweetgum forest, Ecology, 87, 5, 10.1890/04-1950 Fischlin, 2007, 211 Bonan, 2008, Forests and climate change: forcings, feedbacks, and the climate benefits of forests, Science, 320, 1444, 10.1126/science.1155121 Denman, 2007, 499 Hickler, 2008, CO2 fertilization in temperate FACE experiments not representative of boreal and tropical forests, Global Change Biol, 14, 1531, 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01598.x Magrin, 2007, Latin America, 581