Technological forecasting and scenarios matter

Emerald - Tập 5 Số 4 - Trang 8-19 - 2003
H.Bouwman1, P.van der Duin2
1H. Bouwman ([email protected]) is Assistant Professor in the Information and Communication Technology Department at the Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands.
2P. van der Duin ([email protected]) is a Research Fellow in the Technology, Strategy and Entrepreneurship Department, at the Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands.

Tóm tắt

Information and communication technology (ICT) is increasingly being used in the home environment, making it a very important and interesting research topic for communication scientists. Future developments will influence the way and the extent to which ICT will be used in the home environment and therefore the way people look for information, communicate, make use of entertainment services and carry out transactions. However, it is still very difficult to make meaningful and accurate forecasts with regard to the possible future use and acceptance of ICT in people’s homes. Important reasons are, for example, that more and more market parties are involved in the development of innovative ICT products and services. This makes developments more complex and the outcomes more uncertain. Furthermore, consumers play an important role in the development of new ICT‐based information, communication, transaction and entertainment services. Since a precise prediction of the possible use of ICT in domestic environments in 2010 is hard to make, other methods of futures research must be used. Combining technological forecasting with scenario thinking is such a research method, whereon, technological forecasting shows the major trends in the specific technology domain, while scenarios cover the possible future worlds. By giving end‐users a central place in these scenarios, the diversity of the use and acceptance of innovative products and services is captured. Thus, the addition of scenarios to the technology trends gives insight into the possibilities (and impossibilities) of new ICT‐technologies and the way they may be used in the home environment.

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Emerald

Tập 5 Số 4

8-19

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